Re: [LU] non LU - ABBA penalty shoot outs

[Rick Duniec]

Since you ask - here is some academic background -

>Of wider interest for ABBA fans is the revised sequence of penalty 
taking, ignoring discussion over the inaccuracy of Thibault Courtois' 
effort yesterday and the wisdom of his position in the line-up to take 
the pens.


LSE are claiming the credit for the research:

http://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Latest-news-from-LSE/2017/08-August-2017/Goal-LSE-research-scores-impact

The academic papers can be found here:

“Psychological Pressure in Competitive Environments: Evidence from a 
Randomized Natural Experiment” 
 in the journal 
/American Economic Review/ , co-authored with Jose Apesteguia


Tournaments, fairness and the Prouhet-Thue-Morse Sequence 
 in the journal /Economic 
Inquiry/


/Beautiful Game Theory, // How Soccer Can Help Economics, chapter 5 
 
/by Princeton University Press


The biggest surprise is that the proposal highlights that the total 
number of penalties should ideally be taken in exponentials of 2 (see 
note 3 of the Palacios-Huerta paper on the Prouhet-Thue-Morse Sequence) 
ie 8 or 16, rather than the current arrangement of 10. It is surprising 
that half of the recommendations have been adopted but not this key 
point. I wonder whether IFAB have considered changing the number of 
penalties in the format, rather than sticking to sudden death after 10.


The analysis is interesting and includes differentiating between saves 
and misses; the importance of home advantage and the decision to take 
the first penalty kick after winning the toss of a coin. (Why would you 
not when 'the order of play is strongly significant'? That is the 
fundamental reason for the change.)


The footnotes are particularly illuminating and the references include 
research worth investigating further.


Among the conclusions from the Psychological Pressure paper is a 
'significant and quantitatively important type of psychological effect 
not previously documented'.



On 07/08/2017 19:06, nat...@sky.com wrote:

AS most people are aware, especially after yesterdays Community Shield  that 
the penatly shoot outs format have changed, instead of it going team A, team B, 
team A, team B etc it is now ABBA ABBA etc
Now I have watched both Leeds and England in a number of penatly shoots outs, 
both live and on TV but I have never felt or heard people think that winning 
the toss and going first gave a massive advantage - I don't recall cheers or 
boos when we have found out we are going first or second.
Are there any statistics out there that show going first does give a big 
advantage to that team ?
Or is it just Sean Harvey and his cronies meddling for the sake of it ?
Dave
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Re: [LU] non LU - ABBA penalty shoot outs

[Paul Tweney]

There was research done that showed that the team going first won 60% of shoot 
outs.
Maverick.


Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.
 Original message From: nat...@sky.com Date: 07/08/2017  19:06  
(GMT+00:00) To: Leeds List  Subject: [LU] non LU - ABBA 
penalty shoot outs 
AS most people are aware, especially after yesterdays Community Shield  that 
the penatly shoot outs format have changed, instead of it going team A, team B, 
team A, team B etc it is now ABBA ABBA etc
Now I have watched both Leeds and England in a number of penatly shoots outs, 
both live and on TV but I have never felt or heard people think that winning 
the toss and going first gave a massive advantage - I don't recall cheers or 
boos when we have found out we are going first or second.
Are there any statistics out there that show going first does give a big 
advantage to that team ?
Or is it just Sean Harvey and his cronies meddling for the sake of it ?
Dave
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[LU] non LU - ABBA penalty shoot outs

[nat...@sky.com]

AS most people are aware, especially after yesterdays Community Shield  that 
the penatly shoot outs format have changed, instead of it going team A, team B, 
team A, team B etc it is now ABBA ABBA etc
Now I have watched both Leeds and England in a number of penatly shoots outs, 
both live and on TV but I have never felt or heard people think that winning 
the toss and going first gave a massive advantage - I don't recall cheers or 
boos when we have found out we are going first or second.
Are there any statistics out there that show going first does give a big 
advantage to that team ?
Or is it just Sean Harvey and his cronies meddling for the sake of it ?
Dave
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Re: [LU] Bolton (Was, Things getting stranger)

[Scott1cairns1]

Sako,utter shite. 

Best regards,Scott. 

> On 7 Aug 2017, at 16:12, Tim Leslie  wrote:
> 
> H, not a great start Nick! Maybe, on that showing, TC MAY just know what 
> he's doing!
> 
> For what it's worth (i.e. Nothing probably) yesterday didn't tell us THAT 
> much, but my main observations were ...
> 
> Keeper. Not convinced, he's like Dracula when it comes to crosses and I 
> suspect we're attempting to bring in this new fangled idea that Keepers need 
> to be able to play football! Other than Neuer ... They can't.
> 
> Ayling. MOTM for me, was immense.
> 
> Pennington. Looks good, shades of Woodgate in how he plays, reading of the 
> game and comfort on the ball.
> 
> Alioski. Promising, works hard and could be good for us.
> 
> Defensive style, classic Barca - two men in sharp when the ball is played 
> into final 3rd.
> 
> General style. Better than last year, we actually look like we're at least 
> going to compete in the centre, as opposed to give the opposition 2/3rds of 
> the pitch and hang on.
> 
> Bolton. Shite, depended solely on Modine who, to be fair, did work hard. 
> They'll get relegated.
> 
> General. Looking forward to Pennington and Jansson together. Man U fans seem 
> quite bitter about us getting Borthwick, which is funny. Hadi Sako. Discuss!
> 
> StigOfTheAtLeastBeOptimisticUntilWeLoseDump
> 
> 
> 
>> On 04.08.2017 20:34, {broken-address} Nicholas Armit wrote:
>> That was my personal preference for which I feel completely entitled.
>> :-) Anyone who picks Phillips ahead of Viera deserves sacking before
>> the end of August.
>> Nick
> 
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> 
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Re: [LU] Bolton (Was, Things getting stranger)

[Tim Leslie]

H, not a great start Nick! Maybe, on that showing, TC MAY just know 
what he's doing!


For what it's worth (i.e. Nothing probably) yesterday didn't tell us 
THAT much, but my main observations were ...


Keeper. Not convinced, he's like Dracula when it comes to crosses and I 
suspect we're attempting to bring in this new fangled idea that Keepers 
need to be able to play football! Other than Neuer ... They can't.


Ayling. MOTM for me, was immense.

Pennington. Looks good, shades of Woodgate in how he plays, reading of 
the game and comfort on the ball.


Alioski. Promising, works hard and could be good for us.

Defensive style, classic Barca - two men in sharp when the ball is 
played into final 3rd.


General style. Better than last year, we actually look like we're at 
least going to compete in the centre, as opposed to give the opposition 
2/3rds of the pitch and hang on.


Bolton. Shite, depended solely on Modine who, to be fair, did work hard. 
They'll get relegated.


General. Looking forward to Pennington and Jansson together. Man U fans 
seem quite bitter about us getting Borthwick, which is funny. Hadi Sako. 
Discuss!


StigOfTheAtLeastBeOptimisticUntilWeLoseDump



On 04.08.2017 20:34, {broken-address} Nicholas Armit wrote:

That was my personal preference for which I feel completely entitled.
:-) Anyone who picks Phillips ahead of Viera deserves sacking before
the end of August.
Nick



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Re: [LU] Bye bye Bridcutt ? (Port Vale team)

[nat...@sky.com]

For Port Vale (as I have suggested for similar early cup ties in the past) I 
would have liked to keep the back five together since they need to be able to 
operate as a unit and then make wholesale changes elsewhere
With the injuries to Pennington and Berardi , the suspension of Jansson and the 
signing of CBJ things are different and my idea is not really feasible.

I feel that Wiedwald needs as much game time as possible early on but I think 
Green will get the nod since the back four will be a 'cobbled together' version

Cooper must start if only due to a total lack of alternatives - if Shaughnessey 
is being turned into a centre back then he should partner him, if not, then 
Ayling is the only other choice. 

I think Alioski also needs game time and to get used to the English system.
Kiltch needs to get match fit and there is only one way to do that - similar 
with Saiz. 

Unless he is willing to give Antonsson and /or Doukara a final last chance then 
there is no point in playing them , so the question will be is Ekuban up to the 
task - if so let him start and rest Wood, if not , Wood must start
I do not see the point in using Vieira if he is being 'rested' in League games

 Bridcutt depends on whether he is surplus to requirements or just not viewed 
as first choice.
Dallas, I thought, after a good pre season may even have started v Bolton so 
unless he is another to be sold I expect him to start
I think, in some ways therefore Wednesday will show who has, and who has not 
got a future at the club. 

Whoever does not start of Antonsson, Doukara, Bridcutt, Dallas , may as well 
look for a new club now, (unless TC decides to stick with his first team)
I expect Green, Anita, Ayling, Cooper, Borthwick-Jackson   
Klitch, BridcuttAlioski Saiz DallasEkuban

or if Shaughnessey plays - as above but with Ayling right back and Anita in 
midfield in place of Bridcutt
This is of course pure guesswork 

Whatever the team I am looking forward to it - jsut hope Bolton game will have 
helped sell a few more tickets
Dave



  From: Kevin Lewis (UK SBS) 
 To: "leedslist@gn.apc.org"  
 Sent: Monday, 7 August 2017, 12:50
 Subject: Re: [LU] Bye bye Bridcutt ?
   
Pretty much agree with everything Dave N said.
Looks like we may have a few more goals in the team this time, but possibly no 
so secure at the back.

Just like to add that I thought Pennington and Cooper did OK under extreme 
bombardment.  We couldn't have picked a worse week from that point of view to 
be without Jannson, but  they got through it.

I'm assuming that neither Pennington or Berardi will be risked against Port 
Vale, even if fit.  So it may be a chance to see if Borthwick-Jackson is  up to 
it for the game against Preston.  Hope Vieira gets a game too.  Might be nice 
to try out  Saiz, Dallas or Sacko - but not all 3.  Start with Wood, but give 
him a rest after an hour if poss.

Then not too many changes from this week for Preston game.  Wiedwald still very 
much on trial, Jannson back in, Borthwick-Jackson at LB if he looks ok v Port 
Vale, then no changes unless someone has a blinder on Wed.

KOT.


Kevin Lewis
Oracle System Administrator
UK SBS

Tel: 01793 867086
Email: kevin.le...@uksbs.co.uk
UK SBS, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1FF (Polaris House, 
Ground Floor - West, Swindon)



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Re: [LU] Bye bye Bridcutt ?

[Kevin Lewis (UK SBS)]

Pretty much agree with everything Dave N said.
Looks like we may have a few more goals in the team this time, but possibly no 
so secure at the back.

Just like to add that I thought Pennington and Cooper did OK under extreme 
bombardment.  We couldn't have picked a worse week from that point of view to 
be without Jannson, but  they got through it.

I'm assuming that neither Pennington or Berardi will be risked against Port 
Vale, even if fit.  So it may be a chance to see if Borthwick-Jackson is  up to 
it for the game against Preston.  Hope Vieira gets a game too.  Might be nice 
to try out  Saiz, Dallas or Sacko - but not all 3.  Start with Wood, but give 
him a rest after an hour if poss.

Then not too many changes from this week for Preston game.  Wiedwald still very 
much on trial, Jannson back in, Borthwick-Jackson at LB if he looks ok v Port 
Vale, then no changes unless someone has a blinder on Wed.

KOT.


Kevin Lewis
Oracle System Administrator
UK SBS

Tel: 01793 867086
Email: kevin.le...@uksbs.co.uk
UK SBS, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1FF (Polaris House, 
Ground Floor - West, Swindon)



UK Shared Business Services Ltd. Registered in England and Wales as a limited 
company.  Company number 6330639.  Registered Office: Polaris House, North Star 
Avenue, Swindon, Wiltshire SN2 1FF.

This email and any attachments are intended for the named addressee(s) only. If 
you are not the intended recipient, please notify UK SBS immediately and do not 
disclose, distribute, or retain this email or any part of it. While UK SBS has 
taken every reasonable precaution to minimise risk of this e-mail or any 
attachments containing viruses, the recipient should carry out its own virus 
checks before opening the attachments. The Company does not accept any 
liability for any losses or damages which the recipient may sustain due to 
presence of any viruses. Any opinions expressed in this email (including 
attachments) are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the 
company's opinions. We will not accept responsibility for any commitments made 
by our employees outside the scope of our business. The Company reserves the 
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Re: [LU] Bye bye Bridcutt ?

[nat...@sky.com]

In some ways a difficult game to assess, so up and down and all over the place 
was it.
The footballing gods took the piss, once again, out of Leeds- we have bought 
lots of players but not in the two positions that we really needed - left back* 
and centre half , with only one left back (Berardi and he is really a right 
back) and 3 centre halves (Cooper, Pennington and the suspended Jansson) on the 
books. So of course, cruising at 2 0 our only left back gets injured and on 
comes another right back / defensive midfielder and we concede soon afterwards. 
We then get our two goal advantage back and everything was looking rosy then 
off goes Pennington to be replaced by a lad making his debut, but not a centre 
half , oh no, a midfielder. Again , even sooner this time, a rookie mistake by 
him leads to a penalty and we found ourselves only one goal to the good. We did 
manage to hang on and get all three points, albeit against a side that is 
expected to be fighting and probably losing that fight, against relegation.
We played some really good football at times, at others we looked shaky and 
nervous at the back, and at others we either kept the ball to no purpose or 
resorted to hoofing it. So as I say a real mix of things
I am more in the O'Kane in the man of the match camp than just he 'did Ok' but 
I felt that when we were under the cosh he went missing a bit and he seemed 
very reluctant to shoot but overall I was very impressed. 

Apart from maybe Wood and Ayling, that can be said of all the players - some 
good stuff and some dross. 

Anita looked assured and could be a real asset, Roofe looked sharper than last 
season and Phillips got forward much more than any midfielder did last season. 
I thought Alioski looked lost to start with but did grow into the game and he 
also got forward and into the box to aid Wood much more than anyone did last 
time - as shown by his header for our 2nd goal.
I have big doubts about the keeper - his throwing was good and a new element 
but I remember shouting at the screen when one kick went straight into touch 
and then his next went right to a Bolton player - a better debut than Green 
last season at QPR but not one to fill me with confidence.
I love Sacko but that 5 minute cameo was as bad as I have seen from any player
Cooper had a solid game but I am not sure what the captains armband means long 
term - will it go to Pontus when he is back, or will keep it which means him 
being picked ahead of Pennington each week ? It does seem to show that the 
other players have more faith in him than most fans. I do think he is Ok and 
comes in for some unwarranted stick BUT you always feel there is a mistake in 
him just waiting to come out and one that will cost us a goal
So all in all a much better start than last time but it is the first game and 
not too much can be read into it  I remember the first 'heavy metal 'game under 
Rosler a style that was never replicated. Whateve,r it is 3 points on the table 
and some good things to build on
2 final points - how come Bothwick-Jackson had  a seat among Leeds fans when it 
was sold out and I could not get a ticket ?
2nd - Vieira, like many fans I think he is the best midfielder we have and i do 
worry about him being left out yesterday. I just hope it is to protect him and 
not either that he has got too big for his boots and is not putting it in in 
training, or even worse that TC does not rate him

* I know that we have now signed CBJ on a years loan

DavePS - Re Lexi and the smashed grave - we went to the grave at weekend and 
there was a lovely letter of apology from one of the kids and his Mum - they 
seem genuinely upset and disgusted, even to the point where they said instead 
of just taking his X Box off him they have smashed it (and left a photo as 
proof) to let him feel what it is like to have something he treasured smashed ! 

  From: Rob Heath 
 To: Jim Moran  
Cc: "leedslist@gn.apc.org" ; 
"richleed...@yahoo.co.uk.is-broken.gn.apc.org" 
; {broken-address} Nicholas Armit 

 Sent: Monday, 7 August 2017, 10:27
 Subject: Re: [LU] Bye bye Bridcutt ?
   
Missed the match as it EXACTLY (Infuriatingly) coincided with my journey to
Heathrow.

Heartened by 3 away goals and 3 away points though.

Best thing for me was an entry on the BBC "live" (but actually virtually
dead) update page...10 mins from the end, it said something
like: " Leeds are controlling the game well, keeping the ball and pinning
Bolton in their own half." With a 3-2 lead with 15 to go in just about
every recent season (and especially under Monk), we would have sat back and
allowed them to pour balls into our box. In fact that was about the only
real improvement last yearwhen that happened, Bartley & Jansson
usually dealt with it all, but not without alarums.

On Sun, Aug 6, 2017 

[LU] Berardi

[Richard Naef]

Looks like he dislocated his shoulder - some poor bugger had to "pop it back 
in" at half time - given his fiery temper I presume the medical team had to 
draw straws to get someone to do it, who then had to be put in one of those 
bomb disposal suits.  Anyway hopefully he'll be back soon.  No news on 
Pennington yet though.  We've signed Borthwick-Jackson from a small club 
somewhere over the Pennines.

ttfn

Richard

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Re: [LU] Bye bye Bridcutt ?

[Rob Heath]

Missed the match as it EXACTLY (Infuriatingly) coincided with my journey to
Heathrow.

Heartened by 3 away goals and 3 away points though.

Best thing for me was an entry on the BBC "live" (but actually virtually
dead) update page...10 mins from the end, it said something
like: " Leeds are controlling the game well, keeping the ball and pinning
Bolton in their own half." With a 3-2 lead with 15 to go in just about
every recent season (and especially under Monk), we would have sat back and
allowed them to pour balls into our box. In fact that was about the only
real improvement last yearwhen that happened, Bartley & Jansson
usually dealt with it all, but not without alarums.

On Sun, Aug 6, 2017 at 9:41 PM, Jim Moran  wrote:

> I agree. OKane was decent. Manager does sound like he's going to know a
> song that will get on your nerves though.
>
> On Sun, 6 Aug 2017 at 20:26, {broken-address} Nicholas Armit <
> arm...@yahoo.com-is-broken.gn.apc.org> wrote:
>
> > Wow...i thought O'Kane was the best player on the pitch by a mile.
> Thought
> > Alioski did well too after a nervy start and set up the second. And Anita
> > was safety personified.
> >
> > Sent from my iPhone
> >
> > > On Aug 6, 2017, at 1:54 PM, {broken-address} Richard Walker <
> > richleed...@yahoo.co.uk.is-broken.gn.apc.org> wrote:
> > >
> > > Good result against a poor team.
> > > I think the subs really affected us and we made heavy weather against a
> > bunch of journeymen.
> > > here's my scores from armchair (and a few Saltaire Blondes):
> > > Wieldwald - 5. Didn't look like a keeper that's going to command his
> > area which is so important in this league. I understand the new manager
> > wanting to bring in his keeper especially when Green ain't going to go on
> > for much longer.
> > > Ayling - 9. For me he was our best player. Solid and consistent.
> > > Beradi - 6. Unfortunate with injury.
> > > Pennington - 7. Thought he looked really good. Hope his injury isn't a
> > bad one because together with Jansson would be good.
> > > Cooper - 7. Didn't do anything wrong and I think it was a decent
> > captain's performance.
> > > O'Kane - 6. He did ok but I didn't see anything new from last season.
> Is
> > he a better midfielder than Vierra ? I don't think so.
> > > Philips - 7. Two good goals however I actually think his general play
> at
> > times was poor however he was busy and he was always there so in this
> games
> > that was crucial. Is he a better player than Vierra ? I don't think so.
> > > Roofe - 6. Again, he did nothing to suggest he's going anything to add
> > from last season. Once decent cross for the goal but he generally looks
> > lightweight to me , falling over at every opportunity.
> > > Hernandez- 7 . First half was a typical away performance from him -
> > shite but he improved second half and was unlucky with his shot.
> > > Alioski - 5. Is he a left winger ? Didn't look like it from me. Not
> sure
> > about him.
> > > Wood - 7. Good goal and excellent for our second.I still find him slow
> > and ponderous at times. 20 million - you've got to be kidding.
> > > subs:
> > > shaugnessy - what was he playing at ?
> > > Sacko - sack of shito
> > > good start but nothing much to make me think we're better than last
> > season.
> > >
> > >  From: wayne callaghan 
> > > To: "richleed...@yahoo.co.uk" 
> > > Cc: "j...@jimmoran.co.uk" ; "davidwool...@gmail.com
> "
> > ; "leedslist@gn.apc.org" ;
> "
> > nat...@sky.com" ; "
> > richleed...@yahoo.co.uk.is-broken.gn.apc.org" <
> > richleed...@yahoo.co.uk.is-broken.gn.apc.org>
> > > Sent: Sunday, 6 August 2017, 17:47
> > > Subject: Re: [LU] Bye bye Bridcutt ?
> > >
> > > Our keeper reminds me of silvestri ... Clueless with crosses.
> > >
> > > Wayne
> > >
> > > Sent from BlueMailOn 6 Aug 2017, at 17:31, {broken-address} Richard
> > Walker  wrote:
> > > well it's better than QPR last season but I suspect we're playing the
> > worst team in the league.
> > > Maybe one too many luxury players in there for me. Hernandez, Roofe and
> > Allioski all pretty poor.
> > > their goal - that's how we used to defend for corners pre-Pontus.
> > > like the look of pennington though - together with pontus will be good.
> > > worried about Anita playing a left back - he hasn't got a left foot.
> > Beradi hasn't either but he doesn't look to have the bollocks that Beradi
> > does.
> > > Can't complain.
> > >
> > > From: Jim Moran 
> > > To: David W ; Leeds List  >;
> > Richard Walker ; "nat...@sky.com" <
> nat...@sky.com
> > >
> > > Sent: Sunday, 6 August 2017, 17:09
> > > Subject: Re: [LU] Bye bye Bridcutt ?
> > >
> > > If we're 2 up after 30 minutes every game I would ditch white