Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-23 Thread Anthony
On Tue, May 22, 2012 at 5:43 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 Anthony wrote:

 What established framework are you talking about, here?

 I'm referring to Wikipedia's policies and guidelines (and more
 importantly, the underlying principles).

 An editor, acting in good faith, might believe that creating pages for
 dictionary definitions or dessert recipes improves the encyclopedia.
 Does this mean that we're required to refrain from intervening?  Of
 course not.

Of course not.  You should revert the editor's changes.

 IAR is one of our most important policies, but it isn't a license to
 dismiss others' concerns.  Perhaps a one-off exception to our
 vandalism policy *would* improve the encyclopedia, but it isn't
 Gwern's place to unilaterally determine this and disregard requests to
 seek consensus.

It wasn't vandalism.  The vandalism policy is clear about this.  It is
not vandalism, but it is prohibited:  What is not vandalism Editing
tests by experimenting users:  Users sometimes edit pages as an
experiment. Such edits, while prohibited, are treated differently from
vandalism. 

 Obviously I did all my editing as an anon: if even an anonymous IP
 can get away this kind of blatant vandalism just by invoking the name
 WP:EL, then that's a lower bound on how much an editor can get away
 with.

Thanks for this.  I guess he called it vandalism.  Unless he's been
lying about his motive, he was wrong, though.

 As I said before, the experiment wouldn't have been at all accurate if
 he had consulted beforehand.  People would have been on the lookout
 for the removal of external links by IP addresses.
 []
 If not, another option was to consult the WMF.  (I've noted this several 
 times.)

I doubt that would have worked.  And it's not a good use of WMF
employee time anyway.  The new TOS is pretty clear that WMF doesn't
want to get involved in such minutiae.

 You weren't aware that we generally frown upon edits intended to
 reduce articles' quality?

I believe the intent was to improve articles' quality.

 And again, we're quibbling over terminology.

Fair enough.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-23 Thread Anthony
On Tue, May 22, 2012 at 5:45 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 Gwern Branwen wrote:

 Anthony's complaint there is more one complaining about what he thinks
 is a misleading summary.

 It's been asserted that your experiment's parameters were poorly
 selected (and therefore won't yield useful data).

The data may still be useful.  After discussing things with Gwern I
think he's mostly right that the problem was more his summary of the
experiment.  He intentionally tried to choose links which he felt were
more vulnerable, not random links.

Gwern asked me earlier do you have a better summary in 7 words?  I
think we're going to have to wait for the results before coming up
with a summary.  But if the results show this, something like
Wikipedia is vulnerable to the unjustified removal of certain types
of external links. (13 words)  Before the results are released, maybe
I removed 100 random external links of a certain type. (10 words)

Yes, it uses the weasel words of a certain type, but these can be
clarified in the details.

 I don't care about how well official links are defended,

 Maybe the community cares.

Then the community can come up with its own experiment.  Or, they can
if you'll let them.

 because they tend to be the most useless external links around and
 also are the most permitted by EL.

 You're acknowledging that you based your experiment's parameters on
 your personal biases.

His experiment's parameters was based on his beliefs.  This is how
experimentation is supposed to work.  You don't set up an experiment
to determine something you don't care about.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-23 Thread David Levy
Anthony wrote:

   What established framework are you talking about, here?

  I'm referring to Wikipedia's policies and guidelines (and more
  importantly, the underlying principles).
 
  An editor, acting in good faith, might believe that creating pages
  for dictionary definitions or dessert recipes improves the
  encyclopedia.  Does this mean that we're required to refrain from
  intervening?  Of course not.

 Of course not.  You should revert the editor's changes.

Exactly.

You stated that trusting people to act in good faith in the way that
they feel is in the long-term best interest of creating an
encyclopedia is what Wikipedia is all about.  My point is that
additional criteria are routinely applied.  Someone's good-faith
belief that a particular act is in the long-term best interest of
creating an encyclopedia doesn't automatically justify (let alone
mandate) its acceptance by the community.

 It wasn't vandalism.  The vandalism policy is clear about this.  It is
 not vandalism, but it is prohibited:  What is not vandalism Editing
 tests by experimenting users:  Users sometimes edit pages as an
 experiment. Such edits, while prohibited, are treated differently from
 vandalism. 

That section pertains to newcomers testing the act of editing itself.
Here's the rest of its text:

These users should be warned using the uw-test series of user warning
templates, or by a talk page message including, if appropriate, a
welcome and referral to the Wikipedia sandbox, where they can continue
to make test edits without being unintentionally disruptive.
Registered users can also create their own sandboxes as a user
subpage. If a user has made a test edit and then reverted it, consider
placing the message {{uw-selfrevert}}, on their talk page.

  You weren't aware that we generally frown upon edits intended to
  reduce articles' quality?

 I believe the intent was to improve articles' quality.

I don't doubt that Gwern aspires to ultimately improve Wikipedia, but
the individual edits are intended to compromise the articles'
integrity.

I note that we *generally* frown upon such edits in acknowledgement
that the experiment might be justifiable.  But Gwern isn't entitled to
unilaterally determine this.  The Wikipedia editing community should
have received an opportunity to evaluate whether the potential
long-term benefit outweighed the short-term harm.

 The data may still be useful.

Agreed.  I don't assert that the experiment is invalid.  I note that
*others* do.

Such objections should have been solicited and addressed beforehand,
not disregarded or summarily dismissed while the experiment was in
progress.

  Maybe the community cares.

 Then the community can come up with its own experiment.  Or, they can
 if you'll let them.

If the community devises a consensus-backed experiment, of course I'll
let them.

 His experiment's parameters was based on his beliefs.  This is how
 experimentation is supposed to work.  You don't set up an experiment
 to determine something you don't care about.

But if others don't find a pursuit worthwhile, they aren't required to
cooperate (particularly when an experiment is designed to cause
short-term harm).

Gwern seeks to gather information of interest to him/her.  If it
doesn't interest the community (on the basis that its narrow scope
greatly limits its value), the disruption to 100 articles is
unjustified.

And even if the community agrees that the data *will* be useful, it
might disagree that the end justifies the means.

Gwern doesn't care.

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-23 Thread Anthony
On Wed, May 23, 2012 at 2:23 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 Anthony wrote:

   What established framework are you talking about, here?

  I'm referring to Wikipedia's policies and guidelines (and more
  importantly, the underlying principles).
 
  An editor, acting in good faith, might believe that creating pages
  for dictionary definitions or dessert recipes improves the
  encyclopedia.  Does this mean that we're required to refrain from
  intervening?  Of course not.

 Of course not.  You should revert the editor's changes.

 Exactly.

 You stated that trusting people to act in good faith in the way that
 they feel is in the long-term best interest of creating an
 encyclopedia is what Wikipedia is all about.  My point is that
 additional criteria are routinely applied.  Someone's good-faith
 belief that a particular act is in the long-term best interest of
 creating an encyclopedia doesn't automatically justify (let alone
 mandate) its acceptance by the community.

You certainly should revert Gwern's changes.  There's no dispute about that.

 The data may still be useful.

 Agreed.  I don't assert that the experiment is invalid.  I note that
 *others* do.

Which others?  I thought you were referring to me as one of the others.

  Maybe the community cares.

 Then the community can come up with its own experiment.  Or, they can
 if you'll let them.

 If the community devises a consensus-backed experiment, of course I'll
 let them.

Heh.  What's a consensus-backed experiment?

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-23 Thread David Levy
Anthony wrote:

 You certainly should revert Gwern's changes.  There's no dispute about that.

Indeed, but that's a different context; we were discussing the
appropriateness of Gwern's experiment and ones like it.

   The data may still be useful.

  Agreed.  I don't assert that the experiment is invalid.  I note that
  *others* do.

 Which others?

Ian Woollard, Carcharoth and David Gerard have questioned the
experiment's value.

My point, of course, doesn't relate to those comments in particular.
As I said, criticism should have been solicited and addressed
beforehand.

 What's a consensus-backed experiment?

An experiment whose validity and appropriateness have been affirmed by
the community.

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-23 Thread Anthony
On Wed, May 23, 2012 at 3:54 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 Anthony wrote:

 You certainly should revert Gwern's changes.  There's no dispute about that.

 Indeed, but that's a different context; we were discussing the
 appropriateness of Gwern's experiment and ones like it.

So we need to weigh the harm vs. the benefits, right?

 What's a consensus-backed experiment?

 An experiment whose validity and appropriateness have been affirmed by
 the community.

I'm not letting you out that easy.  What does it mean to have been
affirmed by the community?

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-23 Thread David Levy
Anthony wrote:

 So we need to weigh the harm vs. the benefits, right?

Right.

I don't know whether this experiment's benefits will outweigh its
harm.  I only know that the community had no opportunity to discuss
the matter (including possible improvements) and arrive at a
determination.

Presumably, we all agree that the harm caused by the temporary removal
of 100 external links is relatively minor.  But if the resultant data
collection lacks substantial value, this relatively minor harm is
unjustified.  And if other users engage in similar experimentation, it
will multiply.

   What's a consensus-backed experiment?

  An experiment whose validity and appropriateness have been affirmed by
  the community.

 I'm not letting you out that easy.  What does it mean to have been
 affirmed by the community?

I'm not trying to dodge your question.  I honestly don't understand
what's unclear.

I'm referring to a hypothetical scenario in which the Wikipedia
editing community has evaluated a proposed experiment's basic
parameters (with enough details withheld to prevent impacting the
results) and reached consensus
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus] that the plan is
sensible and should be implemented (either with or without
modification).

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-22 Thread Anthony
On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 8:02 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 Anthony wrote:

 I believe I answered this above.  Trusting people to act in good faith
 in the way that they feel is in the long-term best interest of
 creating an encyclopedia is what Wikipedia is all about.

 I answered *that* by pointing out that we don't indiscriminately
 permit good-faith editors to do whatever they feel is in the
 long-term best interest of creating an encyclopedia.  When they
 operate outside the established framework (without consensus that an
 exception is warranted), we intervene.

What established framework are you talking about, here?

 There is a difference between not-condoning the behavior, and calling
 it vandalism.

 _Gwern_ has called it vandalism continually (both in this discussion
 and on Jimbo's talk page) and even mocked a user for suggesting
 otherwise.

When, in this discussion (I haven't read the talk page), did he do
that?  I just did a search for vandalism in this thread, and I don't
see it.

 Do I think Gwern made mistakes in his experiment? Absolutely.

 And those mistakes could have been prevented via consultation with the
 Wikipedia editing community.

As I said before, the experiment wouldn't have been at all accurate if
he had consulted beforehand.  People would have been on the lookout
for the removal of external links by IP addresses.

 Setting aside the issue of terminology (addressed above), our default
 position is to condemn the type of edit that Gwern performed and seek
 to counter it.  The onus is on Gwern to establish that a special
 exception should be made.

If you say so.  I'm not familiar with that part of the official handbook.

 Assume good faith.

 At no point have I accused Gwern of acting in bad faith.

You accused Gwern, several times, of vandalism.  Good faith edits are
not vandalism.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-22 Thread Gwern Branwen
On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 6:33 PM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 All of this is fine, by the way, depending on what your intention was
 to show.  If it was to show that a certain type of external link can
 be removed without likely being reverted, then your methodology is
 fine.  But then you shouldn't advertise your experiment as the
 removal of 100 random external links, because that is not what you
 did.

OK, do you have a better summary in 7 words?

On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 8:02 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 And those mistakes could have been prevented via consultation with the
 Wikipedia editing community.

Anthony's complaint there is more one complaining about what he thinks
is a misleading summary.

I don't regard it as a mistake, and so no consultation would have been
useful: if I were to do it again, I would do it the same way - I don't
care about how well official links are defended, because they tend to
be the most useless external links around and also are the most
permitted by EL. Worrying about them is roughly akin to an
inclusionist worrying that [[George Washington]] or [[Julius Caesar]]
might not be as well-defended as possible. They are the entries that
will be the very last to go under any scenario of decline. The
endangered links are links to news article, reviews, that sort of
thing, and my procedure examines them.

(No matter if those links were reverted at as much as 100%, since
fortunately they still only make up a fraction of external links, they
can under every scenario affect the final result only so much.)

As for the terminological dispute, if you take intent into account,
perhaps they are not vandalism; but the edits themselves in isolation
were designed to look like ordinary deletionist vandalism.

-- 
gwern
http://www.gwern.net

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-22 Thread David Levy
Anthony wrote:

 What established framework are you talking about, here?

I'm referring to Wikipedia's policies and guidelines (and more
importantly, the underlying principles).

An editor, acting in good faith, might believe that creating pages for
dictionary definitions or dessert recipes improves the encyclopedia.
Does this mean that we're required to refrain from intervening?  Of
course not.

IAR is one of our most important policies, but it isn't a license to
dismiss others' concerns.  Perhaps a one-off exception to our
vandalism policy *would* improve the encyclopedia, but it isn't
Gwern's place to unilaterally determine this and disregard requests to
seek consensus.

  _Gwern_ has called it vandalism continually (both in this
  discussion and on Jimbo's talk page) and even mocked a user for
  suggesting otherwise.

 When, in this discussion (I haven't read the talk page), did he do
 that?  I just did a search for vandalism in this thread, and I don't
 see it.

From this discussion:

There's nothing to answer; and I've been copying the most informative
or hilarious quotes for posterity, such as an active administrator in
good standing wondering if it might actually increase article quality
and not constitute vandalism at all!  The whole thing was worth it
just for that quote; I could not have made up a better example of the
sickness.

Obviously I did all my editing as an anon: if even an anonymous IP
can get away this kind of blatant vandalism just by invoking the name
WP:EL, then that's a lower bound on how much an editor can get away
with.

From Jimbo's talk page:

If you read the methodology I posted or even just noticed how I keep
using the past tense, you'd know that the vandalism stopped weeks
ago.

 As I said before, the experiment wouldn't have been at all accurate if
 he had consulted beforehand.  People would have been on the lookout
 for the removal of external links by IP addresses.

Gwern provided more information than necessary to convey the
experiment's essence.  I believe that it would have been fairly easy
to omit enough details to avoid impacting the community's scrutiny of
the changes, particularly given Wikipedia's quantity of articles and
edits.

If not, another option was to consult the WMF.  (I've noted this several times.)

  Setting aside the issue of terminology (addressed above), our
  default position is to condemn the type of edit that Gwern performed
  and seek to counter it.  The onus is on Gwern to establish that a
  special exception should be made.

 If you say so.  I'm not familiar with that part of the official handbook.

You weren't aware that we generally frown upon edits intended to
reduce articles' quality?

   Assume good faith.

  At no point have I accused Gwern of acting in bad faith.

 You accused Gwern, several times, of vandalism.

I accused Gwern of engaging in an act that he/she has repeatedly
acknowledged committing?

 Good faith edits are not vandalism.

Again, we define vandalism as any addition, removal, or change of
content in a deliberate attempt to compromise the integrity of
Wikipedia.  Gwern's experiment is based upon compromising the
integrity of Wikipedia and observing editors' reactions (or lack
thereof).  Vandalism refers to the immediate harmful act, regardless
of any long-term benefits that someone believes will arise from it.

And again, we're quibbling over terminology.  You may have interpreted
my use of the word vandalism as an accusation of a bad-faith motive
on Gwern's part, but I've explained that it isn't one.

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread David Gerard
On 20 May 2012 22:32, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:

 There's nothing to answer; and I've been copying the most informative
 or hilarious quotes for posterity, such as an active administrator in
 good standing wondering if it might actually increase article quality
 and not constitute vandalism at all!
 The whole thing was worth it just for that quote; I could not have
 made up a better example of the sickness.


So, your attempt to prove that no-one cares about external links that
aren't references showed that ... no-one cares about external links
that aren't references.

And that editors should regard ELs on the talk page strictly as notes to self.

What I'm feeling about this *feels* just like hindsight bias, but I
vaguely recall saying something just like that.


- d.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Anthony
On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 7:31 PM, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:
 On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 6:09 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 Yes, there is.  Your methodology has been challenged

 I don't recall any challenges

You haven't gone over your methodology.  I highly doubt you've
selected the links randomly.  And you don't seem to have done any
analysis of whether or not the links should be there or not.

That was my point what percentage of the links were actually good in
the first place.  Not to try to rationalize results which you hadn't
already presented, despite what you think.

 On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 6:22 PM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 Removing 100 random external links?  For a few weeks?  Then adding
 back the ones that deserve to be added back?

 I think it's less questionable to just re-add all the links, no
 questions asked about 'deserving'.

I have no idea which way would be less questionable, nor even what
that is supposed to mean.  But the right way to do it is to only
re-add links which should be added back.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Anthony
On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 7:47 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 Anthony wrote:
 Removing 100 random external links?  For a few weeks?  Then adding
 back the ones that deserve to be added back?

 Where and when did Gwern specify a time frame and indicate that the
 appropriate links would be restored?

If this is done, then does it cease to be vandalism?

Where did you ask Gwern about this?

 Okay, I'm imagining it  Sounds like something that would
 improve the encyclopedia.

 Again, what if hundreds or thousands of users, whose methodologies are
 undiscussed and potentially flawed, were to take it upon themselves to
 conduct such experiments without consultation or approval?  That's
 the hypothetical scenario to which I referred.

Yes, I know.

 [rolls eyes]

 That's unconstructive.

I disagree.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Anthony
On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 7:54 PM, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:
 The procedure: remove random links and record whether they are
 restored to obtain a restoration rate.

 - To avoid issues with selecting links, I will remove only the final
 external link on pages selected by
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Random#External_links which
 have at least 2 external links in an 'External links' section, and
 where the final external link is neither an 'official' link nor
 template-generated.

So, you are not removing random links at all.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Anthony
On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 2:57 AM, David Gerard dger...@gmail.com wrote:
 On 20 May 2012 22:32, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:

 There's nothing to answer; and I've been copying the most informative
 or hilarious quotes for posterity, such as an active administrator in
 good standing wondering if it might actually increase article quality
 and not constitute vandalism at all!
 The whole thing was worth it just for that quote; I could not have
 made up a better example of the sickness.


 So, your attempt to prove that no-one cares about external links that
 aren't references showed that ... no-one cares about external links
 that aren't references.

That aren't references, that aren't official, that aren't
template-generated, and that aren't the only external link on the
page,

 What I'm feeling about this *feels* just like hindsight bias, but I
 vaguely recall saying something just like that.

Certainly makes sense.

What doesn't make much sense is the simultaneous belief that 1) no one
cares; and 2) it is vandalism that absolutely *must be stopped* lest
Kant roll over in his grave.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Anthony
On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 8:11 AM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 7:47 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 Anthony wrote:
 Okay, I'm imagining it  Sounds like something that would
 improve the encyclopedia.

 Again, what if hundreds or thousands of users, whose methodologies are
 undiscussed and potentially flawed, were to take it upon themselves to
 conduct such experiments without consultation or approval?  That's
 the hypothetical scenario to which I referred.

 Yes, I know.

Thousands of users all taking in upon themselves to act in in good
faith, without discussion and in ways which are potentially flawed, to
try to improve an encyclopedia in the way they see best.  We should
come up with a catchy name for that.  Maybe something based on a
Hawaiian word.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Gwern Branwen
On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 2:57 AM, David Gerard dger...@gmail.com wrote:
 What I'm feeling about this *feels* just like hindsight bias, but I
 vaguely recall saying something just like that.

It certainly sounds like it too. :) But if you ever refind where you
said that, you get some Gwern points.

On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 8:07 AM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 You haven't gone over your methodology.  I highly doubt you've
 selected the links randomly.  And you don't seem to have done any
 analysis of whether or not the links should be there or not.

On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 8:15 AM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 So, you are not removing random links at all.

. I should just link XKCD here, but I'll forebear. I am reminded of an 
anecdote describing a court case involving the draft back in Vietnam, where 
the plaintiff's lawyer argued that the little cage and balls method was not 
random and was unfair because the balls on top were much more likely to be 
selected. The judge asked, Unfair to *whom*? Indeed.

And I'd note that my methodology, while being quite as random as most
methods, carries the usual advantages of determinism: anyone will be
able to check whether I did in fact remove only last links which are
not official or template-generated in External Link sections, and that
I did not simply cherrypick the links that I thought were worst and so
least likely to be restored.

-- 
gwern
http://www.gwern.net

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread David Levy
Anthony wrote:

   Removing 100 random external links?  For a few weeks?  Then adding
   back the ones that deserve to be added back?

  Where and when did Gwern specify a time frame and indicate that the
  appropriate links would be restored?

 If this is done, then does it cease to be vandalism?

No.

 Where did you ask Gwern about this?

My above question was a sincere response to your mention of specific
details, not a rhetorical complaint (though I do believe that it was
incumbent upon Gwern to volunteer such information to the community or
the WMF for review *before* engaging in mass vandalism).

As discussed in this thread, it isn't clear that Gwern's
parameters are likely to yield useful information, so this might
amount to nothing more than random vandalism.  Imagine if
hundreds or thousands of editors took it upon themselves to
conduct such experiments without consulting the community or
the WMF.

   Removing 100 random external links?  For a few weeks?  Then
   adding back the ones that deserve to be added back?  Okay, I'm
   imagining it  Sounds like something that would improve the
   encyclopedia.

  Again, what if hundreds or thousands of users, whose methodologies
  are undiscussed and potentially flawed, were to take it upon
  themselves to conduct such experiments without consultation or
  approval?  That's the hypothetical scenario to which I referred.

 Yes, I know.

And you believe that this would improve the encyclopedia?  (Please
keep in mind that knowledge of a time frame and commitment to restore
the links that deserve to be added back aren't actually included in
the scenario; we would know little or nothing about the hypothetical
users' plans.)

 Thousands of users all taking in upon themselves to act in in good
 faith, without discussion and in ways which are potentially flawed, to
 try to improve an encyclopedia in the way they see best.  We should
 come up with a catchy name for that.  Maybe something based on a
 Hawaiian word.

good faith != prudence
way they see best != best way
wiki != anarchy

An editor, acting in good faith, might believe that inserting original
research and edit-warring to keep it in place improves the
encyclopedia.  That doesn't mean that we're obligated to condone such
behavior, let alone without discussion.

 What doesn't make much sense is the simultaneous belief that 1) no one
 cares;

People obviously care about vandalism.  This simply isn't a glaring
type, nor does it affect an element of the utmost importance.

 and 2) it is vandalism that absolutely *must be stopped* lest Kant
 roll over in his grave.

Our default position is to condemn vandalism and seek to counter it.
The onus is on Gwern to establish that a special exception should be
made.

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Horologium

On 5/21/2012 12:33 PM, Carcharoth wrote:

one was a link to a find-a-grave page with a photo of the
subject (unneeded because we already had a photo of the subject)

That is arguable. It depends whether it is the same photo at the same
time of life or not. If the only free photo of someone shows them in
old age, a link to a site legally hosting a picture of them in their
youth would be relevant and should be kept in the external links
section as something that readers would likely want to follow. (It
also betrays an attitude of: we have one image, we don't need any
more, as opposed to curating a visual record of the topic).
Actually, the reverse was true: the picture we had was her official 
photograph from her tenure in congress (1960-1975), and the picture from 
find-a-grave, which is not dated, is obviously a picture of a 
substantially older woman. As she lived for another 13 years after 
retiring from congress, it is likely that the picture was taken during 
that period. And yes, the photo we are using is PD (as are all 
Congressional portraits), which is likely why that is the photo used in 
the article.



This leads me on to one of the big gripes I have about Wikipedia and
its use of images. Because of the free-content model that Wikipedia is
based on, the image use in articles tends to be skewed towards public
domain and freely licensed images. For many subjects, this is not a
problem, but for some subjects to get a balanced *visual* record of a
topic, you need to use (or refer in the text to) non-free images as
well, or if fair use is not possible, to link to a site that legally
hosts such images.
I don't get involved in the image wars. I tend to look for PD images 
simply because they aren't going to be entangled in those wars, but I 
don't have the absolutist mentality of only PD images or all of the 
images possible, copyrights be damned that we see all too often here.



The 'ideal' encyclopedia would use these images (and likely have to
pay to use them), but Wikipedia seems to think that it is possible to
have encyclopedia articles that use free images only, and still
maintain NPOV in terms of the images used. I actually think that in
some cases the use of only PD or free sources skews the visual
presentation, and badly so.

What I tend to do in such cases is link to places where the reader can
view such images. I can provide some examples if anyone wishes to
discuss this.

Carcharoth
As I noted (in the edit summary, and in my discussion here), the link 
was of limited utility, as it's simply a black-and-white photo of the 
subject, with absolutely no information (date, copyright, etc.), and was 
probably taken after her congressional career ended, after which her 
profile was substantially lower. I don't see how (in this case, at 
least) the removal of the link unbalances the article in any way.


FWIW, the article in question is [[Julia Butler Hansen]], so you can 
look at the article and assess whether the removal of the link was damaging.



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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Anthony
On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 11:39 AM, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:
 On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 8:15 AM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 So, you are not removing random links at all.

. I should just link XKCD here, but I'll forebear. I am reminded of an 
anecdote describing a court case involving the draft back in Vietnam, where 
the plaintiff's lawyer argued that the little cage and balls method was not 
random and was unfair because the balls on top were much more likely to be 
selected. The judge asked, Unfair to *whom*? Indeed.
---
From the beginning you seem to be under the mistaken impression that I
am trying to defend Wikipedia or defend the current Wikipedia
processes or something.  I am not.  I find your experiment
interesting.  I think it would be more interesting if your selection
of links were truly random, though.

I don't think you should describe your experiment as removal of 100
random external links by an IP, because your selection was not at all
random.  I don't say this because I am trying to prove something about
the results.  I say it because it is a flaw in your methodology.

 And I'd note that my methodology, while being quite as random as most
 methods, carries the usual advantages of determinism: anyone will be
 able to check whether I did in fact remove only last links which are
 not official or template-generated in External Link sections, and that
 I did not simply cherrypick the links that I thought were worst and so
 least likely to be restored.

How could we do that?  You could have just cherrypicked the worst
links that were last links which are not official or
template-generated in External Link sections.  I'm not saying I think
you did that.  But you certainly could have.

Anyway, the main thing I'd like to say about all of this is simply
that your selection is not random.  Your sample is biased.  Biased in
which direction, I don't know.  Biased intentionally, I doubt.  But
your sample is biased.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Anthony
  Again, what if hundreds or thousands of users, whose methodologies
  are undiscussed and potentially flawed, were to take it upon
  themselves to conduct such experiments without consultation or
  approval?  That's the hypothetical scenario to which I referred.

 Yes, I know.

 And you believe that this would improve the encyclopedia?  (Please
 keep in mind that knowledge of a time frame and commitment to restore
 the links that deserve to be added back aren't actually included in
 the scenario; we would know little or nothing about the hypothetical
 users' plans.)

I believe I answered this above.  Trusting people to act in good faith
in the way that they feel is in the long-term best interest of
creating an encyclopedia is what Wikipedia is all about.

Anyway, the world would be drastically different if hundreds or
thousands of people were curious enough to conduct such experiments.
In my opinion, it would probably be a better place.

 An editor, acting in good faith, might believe that inserting original
 research and edit-warring to keep it in place improves the
 encyclopedia.  That doesn't mean that we're obligated to condone such
 behavior, let alone without discussion.

There is a difference between not-condoning the behavior, and calling
it vandalism.  Do I think Gwern made mistakes in his experiment?
Absolutely.  I've already said many times that I think his sample was
biased.

There's also a difference between temporarily removing 100 external
links, and edit-warring over the insertion of original research.
Gwern wasn't edit-warring at all.  What he did was much less
disruptive.

 What doesn't make much sense is the simultaneous belief that 1) no one
 cares;

 People obviously care about vandalism.  This simply isn't a glaring
 type, nor does it affect an element of the utmost importance.

It isn't vandalism.  He wasn't doing it for the purpose of hurting the
encyclopedia.

 and 2) it is vandalism that absolutely *must be stopped* lest Kant
 roll over in his grave.

 Our default position is to condemn vandalism and seek to counter it.
 The onus is on Gwern to establish that a special exception should be
 made.

It isn't vandalism.

Assume good faith.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Gwern Branwen
On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 5:32 PM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 How could we do that?  You could have just cherrypicked the worst
 links that were last links which are not official or
 template-generated in External Link sections.  I'm not saying I think
 you did that.  But you certainly could have.

Cherrypicking even under this strategy would force me to do both 2x
as much work and engage in conscious deception. If I were consciously
trying to deceive, I would have adopted an entirely unverifiable
strategy like 'roll a dice' or 'pick a random integer 0-length of
links' and then would have both cherry-picked without problem and much
less overall effort (as I had to throw out something like a third to
half the pages with external links because they did not meet one of
the criteria).

 Anyway, the main thing I'd like to say about all of this is simply
 that your selection is not random.  Your sample is biased.  Biased in
 which direction, I don't know.  Biased intentionally, I doubt.  But
 your sample is biased.

Sheesh. Every sample is biased in many ways - but random samples are
biased in unpredictable ways, which is why randomizing was such a big
innovation when Fisher and his contemporaries introduced it. What's
next, PRNGs are unacceptable for any kind of study because you can
predict each output if you know the seed and run the PRNG
appropriately?

-- 
gwern

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread Anthony
On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 6:02 PM, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:
 On Mon, May 21, 2012 at 5:32 PM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 How could we do that?  You could have just cherrypicked the worst
 links that were last links which are not official or
 template-generated in External Link sections.  I'm not saying I think
 you did that.  But you certainly could have.

 Cherrypicking even under this strategy would force me to do both 2x
 as much work and engage in conscious deception.

Yes.  I'm not saying I think you did that.  It never crossed my mind
that you might have intentionally tried to bias the sample, until you
said anyone will be able to check whether I did.  We can't check.
We simply have to trust you that you picked the links in the way that
you claim to have picked the links.

In any case, it really doesn't matter, because your sample *was*
biased, regardless of your intention.

 Anyway, the main thing I'd like to say about all of this is simply
 that your selection is not random.  Your sample is biased.  Biased in
 which direction, I don't know.  Biased intentionally, I doubt.  But
 your sample is biased.

 Sheesh. Every sample is biased in many ways - but random samples are
 biased in unpredictable ways, which is why randomizing was such a big
 innovation when Fisher and his contemporaries introduced it. What's
 next, PRNGs are unacceptable for any kind of study because you can
 predict each output if you know the seed and run the PRNG
 appropriately?

You should read more about sampling bias.  Or talk to someone who has.

PRNGs are acceptable, though you do have to be careful to avoid
publication bias.

If you took a list of all external links, and then used a PRNG to pick
100 numbers between 1 and N (the number of links), and then removed
those external links, then you would have a random sample.  The fact
that you can predict each output if you know the seed and run the PRNG
appropriately would only come into play if you ran the test several
times, with different seeds, and selected one of the runs.

By picking articles first, then picking links, you introduce bias.
You are biasing your links toward those which are in articles with
fewer links.  These are probably less likely to be noticed when
removed, because articles with lots of links are more likely to be on
watchlists, and tend to have more objective criteria.  By limiting
yourself to links in the External Links section, you introduce bias.
These links tend to be the least useful, as they are essentially
miscellanea.  By limiting yourself to links which are not official,
you introduce bias.  This one is pretty obvious, I think, and it is
one introduction of bias which I think you did intentionally.  The
removal of official links is quite clearly more likely to be reverted.
 By limiting yourself to links in articles with more than one external
link, and only to links which are not template-generated, you
introduce bias.  You pretty much admit this, and admit that the bias
was intentional (avoids issues where pages might have 5 or 10
'official' external links to various versions or localizations, all of
which an editor could confidently and blindly revert the removal of;
template-generated links also carry imprimaturs of authority).

All of this is fine, by the way, depending on what your intention was
to show.  If it was to show that a certain type of external link can
be removed without likely being reverted, then your methodology is
fine.  But then you shouldn't advertise your experiment as the
removal of 100 random external links, because that is not what you
did.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-21 Thread David Levy
Anthony wrote:

 I believe I answered this above.  Trusting people to act in good faith
 in the way that they feel is in the long-term best interest of
 creating an encyclopedia is what Wikipedia is all about.

I answered *that* by pointing out that we don't indiscriminately
permit good-faith editors to do whatever they feel is in the
long-term best interest of creating an encyclopedia.  When they
operate outside the established framework (without consensus that an
exception is warranted), we intervene.

 There is a difference between not-condoning the behavior, and calling
 it vandalism.

_Gwern_ has called it vandalism continually (both in this discussion
and on Jimbo's talk page) and even mocked a user for suggesting
otherwise.

 Do I think Gwern made mistakes in his experiment? Absolutely.

And those mistakes could have been prevented via consultation with the
Wikipedia editing community.

 There's also a difference between temporarily removing 100 external
 links, and edit-warring over the insertion of original research.
 Gwern wasn't edit-warring at all.  What he did was much less
 disruptive.

Agreed.  I haven't equated the two.

 It isn't vandalism.

Then why does Gwern keep referring to it as such?

 He wasn't doing it for the purpose of hurting the encyclopedia.

Agreed.  But vandalism is any addition, removal, or change of content
in a deliberate attempt to compromise the integrity of Wikipedia.
The experiment is based entirely upon compromising the integrity of
Wikipedia and observing editors' reactions (or lack thereof).  That
Gwern presumably perceives some long-term benefit has no bearing on
the immediate effect.

Of course, Gwern openly acknowledges that he/she committed blatant
vandalism, so you needn't dispute this on his/her behalf.

  Our default position is to condemn vandalism and seek to counter it.
  The onus is on Gwern to establish that a special exception should be
  made.

 It isn't vandalism.

Setting aside the issue of terminology (addressed above), our default
position is to condemn the type of edit that Gwern performed and seek
to counter it.  The onus is on Gwern to establish that a special
exception should be made.

 Assume good faith.

At no point have I accused Gwern of acting in bad faith.  I merely
believe that he/she has behaved inappropriately.

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread Daniel R. Tobias
On Sat, 19 May 2012 09:22:23 -0400, Horologium wrote:

 I have seen pages with endless external links, and in those, there
 seems to be an equal number of spam links at the top and the
 bottom of the list. Usually the links in the middle are the best,
 but of course, YMMV. 

That might be an interesting thing to study... the more simpleminded 
spammers (like the more simpleminded among marketing types in 
general) would probably be inclined to put their spam links first in 
the list; they're not into any sort of subtlety or cleverness, just 
shoving in everybody's faces the stuff they're trying to promote.  A 
slightly more devious spammer might realize that people will be 
looking for spam links at the top due to mindsets like that, so 
they'll put their links on the bottom so they won't be noticed as 
much by spam-fighters (even if they're also not noticed as much by 
normal readers).  Then, if spam-fighters notice this and start 
defeating it by looking at the bottom too, the next stage would be to 
insert the links in the middle of a long list, where it would be 
least likely to be noticed.  (Though, if the list has some sort of 
internal organization, such as alphabetical or chronological, then a 
misplaced link might still stand out to the sort of geeks who 
obsessive-compulsively maintain such lists.)


-- 
== Dan ==
Dan's Mail Format Site: http://mailformat.dan.info/
Dan's Web Tips: http://webtips.dan.info/
Dan's Domain Site: http://domains.dan.info/



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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread David Levy
Anthony wrote:

 Oh c'mon, even the updated terms of use allow for limited
 vulnerability testing which is not *unduly* disruptive.

Firstly, that text pertains to probing, scanning, or testing the
vulnerability of any of our technical systems or networks.  It has
nothing to do with article content.

Secondly, if we *were* to condone such experiments, they shouldn't be
devised and implemented unilaterally.  As discussed in this thread, it
isn't clear that Gwern's parameters are likely to yield useful
information, so this might amount to nothing more than random
vandalism.  Imagine if hundreds or thousands of editors took it upon
themselves to conduct such experiments without consulting the
community or the WMF.

As Gwern (User:Gwern) continues to edit the English Wikipedia (today
concluding a different experiment) and appears to have stopped
participating in this discussion (thereby ignoring questions about the
acknowledged vandalism), I agree that the account and associated IP
addresses should be blocked until such time as a promise to cease the
disruption and evidence that the damage has been repaired are
forthcoming.

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread Gwern Branwen
On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 4:37 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 As Gwern (User:Gwern) continues to edit the English Wikipedia (today
 concluding a different experiment) and appears to have stopped
 participating in this discussion (thereby ignoring questions about the
 acknowledged vandalism), I agree that the account and associated IP
 addresses should be blocked until such time as a promise to cease the
 disruption and evidence that the damage has been repaired are
 forthcoming.

There's nothing to answer; and I've been copying the most informative
or hilarious quotes for posterity, such as an active administrator in
good standing wondering if it might actually increase article quality
and not constitute vandalism at all!

The whole thing was worth it just for that quote; I could not have
made up a better example of the sickness.

As for today's experiment, I'm surprised anyone cares. After all, all
that was involved was one single link to a webpage written by a
non-expert. I should be getting a barnstar for removing it, judging by
everyone's reactions. (The result, incidentally, was that
click-through fell from 9 a day to 1 a day, which was 17% and not the
5% I had predicted.)

-- 
gwern
http://www.gwern.net

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread David Levy
Gwern Branwen wrote:

 There's nothing to answer;

Yes, there is.  Your methodology has been challenged, and you've yet
to identify the compromised articles, indicate that you've stopped
performing such edits or confirm that the damage has been repaired.

You've admitted to committing widespread vandalism, and you now appear
to be boasting of the accomplishment and mocking the community's
response.  Why shouldn't you be blocked to prevent further disruption?
 (To be clear, this isn't a rhetorical question.)

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread Michel Vuijlsteke
On 21 May 2012 00:09, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:

 Gwern Branwen wrote:

  There's nothing to answer;

 Yes, there is.  Your methodology has been challenged, and you've yet
 to identify the compromised articles, indicate that you've stopped
 performing such edits or confirm that the damage has been repaired.

 You've admitted to committing widespread vandalism, and you now appear
 to be boasting of the accomplishment and mocking the community's
 response.  Why shouldn't you be blocked to prevent further disruption?
  (To be clear, this isn't a rhetorical question.)


Because sometimes it's a good thing to ignore all rules to make a point?

Michel
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread Anthony
On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 4:37 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 Anthony wrote:

 Oh c'mon, even the updated terms of use allow for limited
 vulnerability testing which is not *unduly* disruptive.

 Firstly, that text pertains to probing, scanning, or testing the
 vulnerability of any of our technical systems or networks.  It has
 nothing to do with article content.

I understand this.  I brought it up as something analogous.

 Secondly, if we *were* to condone such experiments, they shouldn't be
 devised and implemented unilaterally.

Being devised and implemented unilaterally is the only way to get
accurate results.

 As discussed in this thread, it
 isn't clear that Gwern's parameters are likely to yield useful
 information, so this might amount to nothing more than random
 vandalism.  Imagine if hundreds or thousands of editors took it upon
 themselves to conduct such experiments without consulting the
 community or the WMF.

Removing 100 random external links?  For a few weeks?  Then adding
back the ones that deserve to be added back?  Okay, I'm imagining
it  Sounds like something that would improve the encyclopedia.

 As Gwern (User:Gwern) continues to edit the English Wikipedia (today
 concluding a different experiment) and appears to have stopped
 participating in this discussion (thereby ignoring questions about the
 acknowledged vandalism), I agree that the account and associated IP
 addresses should be blocked until such time as a promise to cease the
 disruption and evidence that the damage has been repaired are
 forthcoming.

[rolls eyes]

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread Gwern Branwen
On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 6:09 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 Yes, there is.  Your methodology has been challenged

I don't recall any challenges, just people expressing their contempt
for external links, which is not a methodological challenge.

Or did you mean the issue about editing logged in versus logged out as
an anon? Obviously I did all my editing as an anon: if even an
anonymous IP can get away this kind of blatant vandalism just by
invoking the name WP:EL, then that's a lower bound on how much an
editor can get away with.

On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 6:22 PM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 Removing 100 random external links?  For a few weeks?  Then adding
 back the ones that deserve to be added back?

I think it's less questionable to just re-add all the links, no
questions asked about 'deserving'.

-- 
gwern
http://www.gwern.net

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread David Levy
Michel Vuijlsteke wrote:

 Because sometimes it's a good thing to ignore all rules to make a point?

Where is the evidence that this experiment is valid and will yield
useful results?  (Thus far, the only justification cited is the
pleasure that Gwern takes in mocking the community's reaction.)

Again, imagine if hundreds or thousands of users took it upon
themselves to conduct such experiments without consulting the
community or the WMF and confirming their methodologies' soundness.

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread David Levy
Anthony wrote:

 Being devised and implemented unilaterally is the only way to get
 accurate results.

There's no harm in discussing the methodology (but not the specific
targets or IP addresses), thereby confirming its validity and ensuring
that the effort isn't needlessly duplicated by multiple editors across
countless articles.

If general knowledge of the experiment were likely to impact its
results, Gwern's public acknowledgment would have had that effect
anyway.

 Removing 100 random external links?  For a few weeks?  Then adding
 back the ones that deserve to be added back?

Where and when did Gwern specify a time frame and indicate that the
appropriate links would be restored?

 Okay, I'm imagining it  Sounds like something that would
 improve the encyclopedia.

Again, what if hundreds or thousands of users, whose methodologies are
undiscussed and potentially flawed, were to take it upon themselves to
conduct such experiments without consultation or approval?  That's
the hypothetical scenario to which I referred.

 [rolls eyes]

That's unconstructive.

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread Gwern Branwen
On Sun, May 20, 2012 at 7:47 PM, David Levy lifeisunf...@gmail.com wrote:
 There's no harm in discussing the methodology (but not the specific
 targets or IP addresses), thereby confirming its validity and ensuring
 that the effort isn't needlessly duplicated by multiple editors across
 countless articles.

Alright, fine, I will copy in my current writeup minus the list of
targets and the yet to be conducted analysis.

 Again, what if hundreds or thousands of users, whose methodologies are
 undiscussed and potentially flawed, were to take it upon themselves to
 conduct such experiments without consultation or approval?  That's
 the hypothetical scenario to which I referred.

It's unfortunate that I am such a prominent figure and powerful
thought-leader that hundreds and thousands of Wikipedians have even a
tiny chance of mimicking my actions; but that's a risk you just have
to take when you are as world-renowned as I am. I'm sure Kant would
understand.

---

...
The procedure: remove random links and record whether they are
restored to obtain a restoration rate.

- Editors might defer to other editors, so I will remove links as a
anonymous user from multiple proxies; the restoration rate will
naturally be an *under*estimate of what a registered editor would be
able to commit, much less a tendentious deletionist.
- To avoid issues with selecting links, I will remove only the final
external link on pages selected by
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Random#External_links which
have at least 2 external links in an 'External links' section, and
where the final external link is neither an 'official' link nor
template-generated. (This avoids issues where pages might have 5 or 10
'official' external links to various versions or localizations, all of
which an editor could confidently and blindly revert the removal of;
template-generated links also carry imprimaturs of authority.)
- The edit summary for each edit will be `remove external link per
[[WP:EL]]` - which has the nice property of being obviously
meaningless to anyone capable of critical thought (by definition a
link removal should be per one of WP:EL's criterions - but *which*
[criterion](!Wikipedia Wikipedia:External links#Links normally to be
avoided)?) but also official-looking like many deletionist
edit-summaries.
- To avoid flooding issues and be less obvious, no more than 5 or 10
links a day will be removed with at least 1 minute between each edit.
- To avoid building up credibility, I will not make any real edits
with the anonymous IPs

After the last of the 100 links have been removed, I will wait 1 month
(long enough for the edit to drop off all watchlists) and restore all
links. I predict [at least
half](http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6586) will not be restored
and certainly not [more than
90%](http://predictionbook.com/predictions/6585).
...

-- 
gwern

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-20 Thread David Levy
Gwern Branwen wrote:

 I don't recall any challenges, just people expressing their contempt
 for external links, which is not a methodological challenge.

It's been asserted (not by me) that you selected an element poorly
representative of Wikipedia's content as a whole.

 Alright, fine, I will copy in my current writeup minus the list of
 targets and the yet to be conducted analysis.

Thank you.  That's helpful, but the idea should have been proposed and
discussed in advance.  As WereSpielChequers requested several days
ago, please cease any ongoing vandalism and undo whatever hasn't
already been reverted.  Then seek consensus for this experiment or
approval from the WMF.

 It's unfortunate that I am such a prominent figure and powerful
 thought-leader that hundreds and thousands of Wikipedians have even a
 tiny chance of mimicking my actions; but that's a risk you just have
 to take when you are as world-renowned as I am.

I meant that there would be nothing to stop multiple editors, whose
methodologies are unknown and unproven, from *unknowingly* duplicating
each other's efforts.

David Levy

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-19 Thread Horologium

On 5/19/2012 8:00 AM, Andrew Grey wrote:

I just went through 19 random pages (9 of them didn't have any ELs, so I
didn't count them, and I found three articles in which the last EL was not a
useful link. One of them was a spam link to a (non-WMF) wikiproject, one was

Did you test first links, incidentally? My anecdotal experience has
been that someone adding a spammy link is more likely to add it to the
top of the list than someone adding a non-spammy one would be...

Actually, I did look at all of the links in each article, and it was 
coincidental that in each case, the only low-utility links were the 
last. None of the 19 random articles I checked had more than four 
external links (only one of those), and it looked like only one was a 
spam-like link, which was added apparently in good-faith by an 
infrequent contributor who also contributes to the other project. I have 
seen pages with endless external links, and in those, there seems to be 
an equal number of spam links at the top and the bottom of the list. 
Usually the links in the middle are the best, but of course, YMMV.


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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread Charles Matthews
On 16 May 2012 19:41, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:
 On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 2:34 PM, Charles Matthews
 charles.r.matth...@ntlworld.com wrote:
 And why haven't they taken those who generalise broadly from a single
 example with them?

 Are you denying the general decline in editors, even as Internet usage
 continues to increase?

Are you perpetrating a straw man fallacy? I'll happily assert that I
find fewer hoax articles than I used to (in fact none I think for a
couple of years). One crafted to get past New Pages Patrol doesn't
mean much.

Charles

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread WereSpielChequers
Hi, unless I read this wrong you are admitting to 100 random vandalisms of
Wikipedia? If so please stop your experiment now and revert any vandalisms
not yet spotted.

WereSpielChequers

On 17 May 2012 02:14, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:

 On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 8:47 PM, Ian Woollard ian.wooll...@gmail.com
 wrote:
  The number of
  editors is fairly static, although there were about 25% more people
  volunteering in 2006 when there were lots of new things to write about.

 Staticness is a serious problem: the world is not staying still. We
 can't keep up with a growing world with a editor base that is static
 in absolute terms. Productivity improvements like
 anti-obvious-vandalism bots offer limited gains which can keep our
 heads over the rising water, temporarily, but they don't change the
 bigger picture.

 As I demonstrated earlier with my external link experiment, editors
 are not keeping up with even the clearest, best intentioned, highest
 quality suggestions. How can you hope that this means that more
 sophisticated and difficult tasks like anti-troll, vandalism, hoax,
 etc. are still being performed to past standards?

 Incidentally, I have been finishing an experiment involving the
 removal of 100 random external links by an IP; I haven't analyzed it
 yet, so I don't know the outcome, but this gives us an opportunity!

 Would anyone in this thread (especially the ones convinced Wikipedia's
 editing community is in fine shape) care to predict what percentage or
 percentage range they expect will have been reverted?

 Or what percentage/percentage range they would regard as an acceptable
 failure-to-revert rate?

 --
 gwern

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread Ian Woollard
On 17 May 2012 03:58, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:

 But no, you don't need to guess: you edit Wikipedia, you already know
 what external links usually look like, and how many are bad on
 average. (From actually doing the deletions, my own appraisal is that
 10% were at all questionable, and I felt pretty bad deleting most of
 them.)


Ignoring the ethics of vandalising Wikipedia in the first place, if you'd
have picked something other than external links, that might, or might not
have been a good test.

Last time I checked (which admittedly was a while ago) Wikipedia had a
noticeboard whose entire purpose, was essentially to delete as many
external links as possible, they'd even added a policy that said they could
do that in every single case unless you could get a majority in a poll to
keep individual links; oh and in practice they pretty much !vote-stuffed
those polls too by announcing the polls on the noticeboard, so the chances
of a clear majority was low. Oh, and there was a bunch of shady anonymous
IPs involved as well that swing around after the fact to edit war them away
anyway if an external link they didn't favor gets through all that.

Basically, external links are one of the most hated parts of Wikipedia, and
if hardly any of them got fixed it wouldn't surprise me, and wouldn't prove
anything very much.

But nevertheless, thanks for admitting to vandalising Wikipedia 100 times.
If you supply your Wikipedia account details we can arrange for it to be
blocked.

--
 gwern

-- 
-Ian Woollard
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread Thomas Dalton
On 17 May 2012 12:54, WereSpielChequers werespielchequ...@gmail.com wrote:
 Hi, unless I read this wrong you are admitting to 100 random vandalisms of
 Wikipedia? If so please stop your experiment now and revert any vandalisms
 not yet spotted.

Indeed. Then read WP:POINT.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread Carcharoth
On 5/17/12, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:

 Incidentally, I have been finishing an experiment involving the
 removal of 100 random external links by an IP; I haven't analyzed it
 yet, so I don't know the outcome, but this gives us an opportunity!

I carried out another experiment (though I didn't realise it was one
until now, and it is not a breaching one as yours seems it might be -
your wording above is unclear).

About six months ago now, I stumbled on an article that wasn't in
great shape, added some text over a series of edits, and increased the
number of links in the 'external links' section from 5 to 22. Now,
admittedly I wasn't editing as an IP (I always edit logged in) and I
added the external links in such a way as to make clear why they were
useful, but still, I didn't arouse some huge storm of editors
demanding that I reduce the number of external links (they are all
still there). The number of external links will reduce as the article
is expanded, but if you format external links and arrange them
logically, they can function as a holding place for sources to be used
later to write/expand the article.

Maybe that means that the question of external links is more one of
quality, and your analysis is oversimplistic? I submit that
well-formatted and well-chosen external links tend to stick, while
drive-by additions (or removals) don't. Which is not entirely
surprising.

Carcharoth

PS. We have gone way off-topic.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread Durova
On Thu, May 17, 2012 at 8:32 AM, Carcharoth carcharot...@googlemail.comwrote:


 About six months ago now, I stumbled on an article that wasn't in
 great shape, added some text over a series of edits, and increased the
 number of links in the 'external links' section from 5 to 22. Now,
 admittedly I wasn't editing as an IP (I always edit logged in) and I
 added the external links in such a way as to make clear why they were
 useful, but still, I didn't arouse some huge storm of editors
 demanding that I reduce the number of external links (they are all
 still there). The number of external links will reduce as the article
 is expanded, but if you format external links and arrange them
 logically, they can function as a holding place for sources to be used
 later to write/expand the article.

 Maybe that means that the question of external links is more one of
 quality, and your analysis is oversimplistic? I submit that
 well-formatted and well-chosen external links tend to stick, while
 drive-by additions (or removals) don't. Which is not entirely
 surprising.

 Carcharoth


That conclusion would be far more convincing if you weren't who you are.
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread Charles Matthews
On 17 May 2012 17:32, Durova nadezhda.dur...@gmail.com wrote:

 That conclusion would be far more convincing if you weren't who you are.

That's [[ad hominem]] against Carcharoth, and you really need either
to withdraw it, or back it up. The former option is much preferable.

Charles

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread James Farrar
It's also not the first post in this thread it could have been said about...
On May 17, 2012 5:38 PM, Charles Matthews charles.r.matth...@ntlworld.com
wrote:

 On 17 May 2012 17:32, Durova nadezhda.dur...@gmail.com wrote:

  That conclusion would be far more convincing if you weren't who you are.

 That's [[ad hominem]] against Carcharoth, and you really need either
 to withdraw it, or back it up. The former option is much preferable.

 Charles

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread Durova
On Thu, May 17, 2012 at 9:38 AM, Charles Matthews 
charles.r.matth...@ntlworld.com wrote:

 On 17 May 2012 17:32, Durova nadezhda.dur...@gmail.com wrote:

  That conclusion would be far more convincing if you weren't who you are.

 That's [[ad hominem]] against Carcharoth, and you really need either
 to withdraw it, or back it up. The former option is much preferable.

 Charles


That reaction certainly comes as a surprise.  Why would you construe an
attack or a fallacy?

In any meaningful experiment the researcher attempts to reduce the
variables to a single factor.  Surely you'll agree that an established
registered editor's contributions might encounter a different degree of
scrutiny from an unregistered IP's edits.  Carcharoth himself concedes the
possibility.  What need could there be to apologize for agreeing?
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread Charles Matthews
On 17 May 2012 20:37, Durova nadezhda.dur...@gmail.com wrote:
 On Thu, May 17, 2012 at 9:38 AM, Charles Matthews 
 charles.r.matth...@ntlworld.com wrote:

 On 17 May 2012 17:32, Durova nadezhda.dur...@gmail.com wrote:

  That conclusion would be far more convincing if you weren't who you are.

 That's [[ad hominem]] against Carcharoth, and you really need either
 to withdraw it, or back it up. The former option is much preferable.

 Charles


 That reaction certainly comes as a surprise.  Why would you construe an
 attack or a fallacy?

 In any meaningful experiment the researcher attempts to reduce the
 variables to a single factor.  Surely you'll agree that an established
 registered editor's contributions might encounter a different degree of
 scrutiny from an unregistered IP's edits.  Carcharoth himself concedes the
 possibility.  What need could there be to apologize for agreeing?

Thank you for the clarification.

Charles

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread Durova


 Thank you for the clarification.

 Charles

 He raises an interesting possibility.  What would really be a better test
of the idea would be to edit unlogged from a wi-fi hotspot and add around 2
dozen external links each to several articles as he describes along with a
general improvement and expansion.  If no difficulties arise after 10 or
more articles then providing a good context for links might really be an
ideal solution.

Recent changes patrol tends to be fast moving and because of that it
incorporates a trust factor: the basic things to check for is whether a
link is relevant, informative, and useful.  Most patrollers frown on
deliberate efforts to exploit external links and send traffic to particular
websites; also in the view of some patrollers the external links section
doesn't exist to replicate the top results of major search engines.

That last point might be debatable, yet most of us appreciate it when
someone who knows a subject provides a referral to a useful but
non-optimized site.  Carcharoth has basically explained usefulness for the
new page patroller.  That makes the patroller's task easier.  The question
is whether that explanation alone makes a difference: Carcharoth is a model
wikicitizen so a patroller could conclude that his choices are trustworthy
for any number of other reasons.
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-17 Thread Anthony
On Thu, May 17, 2012 at 10:47 AM, Thomas Dalton thomas.dal...@gmail.com wrote:
 On 17 May 2012 12:54, WereSpielChequers werespielchequ...@gmail.com wrote:
 Hi, unless I read this wrong you are admitting to 100 random vandalisms of
 Wikipedia? If so please stop your experiment now and revert any vandalisms
 not yet spotted.

 Indeed. Then read WP:POINT.

Oh c'mon, even the updated terms of use allow for limited
vulnerability testing which is not *unduly* disruptive.

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[WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Gwern Branwen
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/05/how-the-professor-who-fooled-wikipedia-got-caught-by-reddit/257134/
Print: 
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/print/2012/05/how-the-professor-who-fooled-wikipedia-got-caught-by-reddit/257134/

 A woman opens an old steamer trunk and discovers tantalizing clues that a 
 long-dead relative may actually have been a serial killer, stalking the 
 streets of New York in the closing years of the nineteenth century. A beer 
 enthusiast is presented by his neighbor with the original recipe for Brown's 
 Ale, salvaged decades before from the wreckage of the old brewery--the very 
 building where the Star-Spangled Banner was sewn in 1813. A student buys a 
 sandwich called the Last American Pirate and unearths the long-forgotten tale 
 of Edward Owens, who terrorized the Chesapeake Bay in the 1870s.

 These stories have two things in common. They are all tailor-made for viral 
 success on the internet. And they are all lies.

 Each tale was carefully fabricated by undergraduates at George Mason 
 University who were enrolled in T. Mills Kelly's course, Lying About the 
 Past. Their escapades not only went unpunished, they were actually encouraged 
 by their professor. Four years ago, students created a Wikipedia page 
 detailing the exploits of Edward Owens, successfully fooling Wikipedia's 
 community of editors. This year, though, one group of students made the 
 mistake of launching their hoax on Reddit. What they learned in the process 
 provides a valuable lesson for anyone who turns to the Internet for 
 information.

 The first time Kelly taught the course, in 2008, his students confected the 
 life of Edward Owens, mixing together actual lives and events with brazen 
 fabrications. They created YouTube videos, interviewed experts, scanned and 
 transcribed primary documents, and built a Wikipedia page to honor Owens' 
 memory. The romantic tale of a pirate plying his trade in the Chesapeake 
 struck a chord, and quickly landed on USA Today's pop culture blog. When 
 Kelly announced the hoax at the end of the semester, some were amused, 
 applauding his pedagogical innovations. Many others were livid.

 Critics decried the creation of a fake Wikipedia page as digital vandalism. 
 Things like that really, really, really annoy me, fumed founder Jimmy 
 Wales, comparing it to dumping trash in the streets to test the willingness 
 of a community to keep it clean. But the indignation may, in part, have been 
 compounded by the weaknesses the project exposed. Wikipedia operates on a 
 presumption of good will. Determined contributors, from public relations 
 firms to activists to pranksters, often exploit that, inserting information 
 they would like displayed. The sprawling scale of Wikipedia, with nearly four 
 million English-language entries, ensures that even if overall quality 
 remains high, many such efforts will prove successful.

 One group took its inspiration from the fact that the original Star-Spangled 
 Banner had been sewn on the floor of Brown's Brewery in Baltimore. The group 
 decided that a story that good deserved a beer of its own. They crafted a 
 tale of discovering the old recipe used by Brown's to make its brews, 
 registered BeerOf1812.com, built a Wikipedia page for the brewery, and 
 tweeted out the tale on their Twitter feed. No one suspected a thing. In 
 fact, hardly anyone even noticed. They did manage to fool one well-meaning DJ 
 in Washington, DC, but the hoax was otherwise a dud.  The second group 
 settled on the story of serial killer Joe Scafe. Using newspaper databases, 
 they identified four actual women murdered in New York City from 1895 to 
 1897, victims of broadly similar crimes. They created Wikipedia articles for 
 the victims, carefully following the rules of the site. They concocted an 
 elaborate story of discovery, and fabricated images of the trunk's contents.

 ...it took just twenty-six minutes for a redditor to call foul, noting the 
 Wikipedia entries' recent vintage. Others were quick to pile on, 
 deconstructing the entire tale. The faded newspaper pages looked artificially 
 aged. The Wikipedia articles had been posted and edited by a small group of 
 new users. Finding documents in an old steamer trunk sounded too convenient. 
 And why had Lisa been savvy enough to ask Reddit, but not enough to Google 
 the names and find the Wikipedia entries on her own? The hoax took months to 
 plan but just minutes to fail.

 Why...One answer lies in the structure of the Internet's various communities. 
 Wikipedia has a weak community, but centralizes the exchange of information. 
 It has a small number of extremely active editors, but participation is 
 declining, and most users feel little ownership of the content. And although 
 everyone views the same information, edits take place on a separate page, and 
 discussions of reliability on another, insulating ordinary users from any 
 doubts that might be 

Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Charles Matthews
On 16 May 2012 16:49, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:

 Indeed. Why *are* the skeptical geeks now on Reddit and not Wikipedia?

And why haven't they taken those who generalise broadly from a single
example with them?

Charles

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Rob Schnautz

This discussion has flowed onto Wikipedia's Administrator's Noticeboard:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:AN#False_articles_created_for_the_good_of_education

Rob

-Original Message- 
From: Charles Matthews

Sent: Wednesday, 16 May 2012 1:34 PM
To: English Wikipedia
Subject: Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught 
by Reddit, _The Atlantic_


On 16 May 2012 16:49, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:


Indeed. Why *are* the skeptical geeks now on Reddit and not Wikipedia?


And why haven't they taken those who generalise broadly from a single
example with them?

Charles

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Tom Morris
On Wednesday, 16 May 2012 at 16:49, Gwern Branwen wrote:
 Indeed. Why *are* the skeptical geeks now on Reddit and not Wikipedia?




26 minutes? I'm trying to imagine how much the angry inclusionists would be 
soiling my talk page with accusations of BITEyness if I had IAR deleted this 
page after just 26 minutes. ;-) 

The question also presumes that Wikipedians are not also Redditors.

-- 
Tom Morris
http://tommorris.org/



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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Gwern Branwen
On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 2:34 PM, Charles Matthews
charles.r.matth...@ntlworld.com wrote:
 And why haven't they taken those who generalise broadly from a single
 example with them?

Are you denying the general decline in editors, even as Internet usage
continues to increase?

-- 
gwern

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread James Alexander
On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 11:38 AM, Tom Morris t...@tommorris.org wrote:

 On Wednesday, 16 May 2012 at 16:49, Gwern Branwen wrote:
  Indeed. Why *are* the skeptical geeks now on Reddit and not Wikipedia?




 26 minutes? I'm trying to imagine how much the angry inclusionists would
 be soiling my talk page with accusations of BITEyness if I had IAR deleted
 this page after just 26 minutes. ;-)

 The question also presumes that Wikipedians are not also Redditors.


I think this is important. The more and more I look at Reddit the more I
realize that not only are they very similar to Wikipedians they ARE
Wikipedians. In fact recently I've started wondering if a Reddit post may
be an easier way to reach Wikipedians then a watchlist post or central
notice ;)




 --
 Tom Morris
 http://tommorris.org/



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James Alexander @Jamesofur
jameso...@gmail.com
jalexan...@wikimedia.org
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread WereSpielChequers
If you spot something is a blatant hoax and delete it after 26 seconds I
think you'll find that even the most ardent inclusionists are as intolerant
of hoaxes as we are of attack pages.

WSC

On 16 May 2012 19:38, Tom Morris t...@tommorris.org wrote:

 On Wednesday, 16 May 2012 at 16:49, Gwern Branwen wrote:
  Indeed. Why *are* the skeptical geeks now on Reddit and not Wikipedia?




 26 minutes? I'm trying to imagine how much the angry inclusionists would
 be soiling my talk page with accusations of BITEyness if I had IAR deleted
 this page after just 26 minutes. ;-)

 The question also presumes that Wikipedians are not also Redditors.

 --
 Tom Morris
 http://tommorris.org/



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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Ian Woollard
There's no great drop in the number of editors:

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ENglish_Wikipedia_active_users_%28September_2011%29.png

The number of new articles appearing has been dropping, but it looks like
we're just running out of things to write about- the rate of decrease of
new articles is much more than any reduction in editors. The number of
editors is fairly static, although there were about 25% more people
volunteering in 2006 when there were lots of new things to write about.

On 16 May 2012 19:41, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:

 On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 2:34 PM, Charles Matthews
 charles.r.matth...@ntlworld.com wrote:
  And why haven't they taken those who generalise broadly from a single
  example with them?

 Are you denying the general decline in editors, even as Internet usage
 continues to increase?

 --
 gwern

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-- 
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Gwern Branwen
On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 8:47 PM, Ian Woollard ian.wooll...@gmail.com wrote:
 The number of
 editors is fairly static, although there were about 25% more people
 volunteering in 2006 when there were lots of new things to write about.

Staticness is a serious problem: the world is not staying still. We
can't keep up with a growing world with a editor base that is static
in absolute terms. Productivity improvements like
anti-obvious-vandalism bots offer limited gains which can keep our
heads over the rising water, temporarily, but they don't change the
bigger picture.

As I demonstrated earlier with my external link experiment, editors
are not keeping up with even the clearest, best intentioned, highest
quality suggestions. How can you hope that this means that more
sophisticated and difficult tasks like anti-troll, vandalism, hoax,
etc. are still being performed to past standards?

Incidentally, I have been finishing an experiment involving the
removal of 100 random external links by an IP; I haven't analyzed it
yet, so I don't know the outcome, but this gives us an opportunity!

Would anyone in this thread (especially the ones convinced Wikipedia's
editing community is in fine shape) care to predict what percentage or
percentage range they expect will have been reverted?

Or what percentage/percentage range they would regard as an acceptable
failure-to-revert rate?

-- 
gwern

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Andreas Kolbe
On Thu, May 17, 2012 at 1:47 AM, Ian Woollard ian.wooll...@gmail.comwrote:

 There's no great drop in the number of editors:


 http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ENglish_Wikipedia_active_users_%28September_2011%29.png



See

http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaEN.htm

Editors making 100+ edits a month in English Wikipedia were at 5,000+ in
early 2007, and are now down to less than 3,500.

German, French, Spanish, Portuguese and Polish core editor numbers are
stable, on the other hand:

http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaDE.htm
http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaFR.htm
http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaES.htm
http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaPT.htm
http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaPL.htm

Russian is booming:

http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaRU.htm

Japanese (another project with a strong popular culture bias) is declining
too:

http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaJA.htm

Another interesting variable is editor retention, measured as the
percentage of all Wikipedians who still make 100 or more edits a month:

0.45% in English WP
0.59% in Japanese WP
0.73% in Spanish WP
0.90% in German WP*
0.99% in Polish WP*
1.01% in French WP
1.49% in Russian WP*

* The German, Polish and Russian Wikipedias have flagged revisions. (I am
currently looking at this data to see if there is a correlation between
flagged revisions and editor retention.)

Andreas
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Andreas Kolbe
On Thu, May 17, 2012 at 2:21 AM, Andreas Kolbe jayen...@gmail.com wrote:

 On Thu, May 17, 2012 at 1:47 AM, Ian Woollard ian.wooll...@gmail.comwrote:

 There's no great drop in the number of editors:


 http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ENglish_Wikipedia_active_users_%28September_2011%29.png



 See

 http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaEN.htm

 Editors making 100+ edits a month in English Wikipedia were at 5,000+ in
 early 2007, and are now down to less than 3,500.

 German, French, Spanish, Portuguese and Polish core editor numbers are
 stable, on the other hand:

 http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaDE.htm
 http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaFR.htm
 http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaES.htm
 http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaPT.htm
 http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaPL.htm

 Russian is booming:

 http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaRU.htm

 Japanese (another project with a strong popular culture bias) is declining
 too:

 http://stats.wikimedia.org/EN/TablesWikipediaJA.htm

 Another interesting variable is editor retention, measured as the
 percentage of all Wikipedians who still make 100 or more edits a month:

 0.45% in English WP
 0.59% in Japanese WP
 0.73% in Spanish WP
 0.90% in German WP*
 0.99% in Polish WP*
 1.01% in French WP
 1.49% in Russian WP*

 * The German, Polish and Russian Wikipedias have flagged revisions. (I am
 currently looking at this data to see if there is a correlation between
 flagged revisions and editor retention.)

 Andreas


I forgot to add the editor retention figure in Portuguese WP: it's 0.62%,
based on the latest reported month (April 2012).
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Andreas Kolbe
On Thu, May 17, 2012 at 3:02 AM, Ian Woollard ian.wooll...@gmail.comwrote:

 On 17 May 2012 02:21, Andreas Kolbe jayen...@gmail.com wrote:

  Editors making 100+ edits a month in English Wikipedia were at 5,000+ in
  early 2007, and are now down to less than 3,500.
 

 Sounds about right.


  German, French, Spanish, Portuguese and Polish core editor numbers are
  stable, on the other hand:
 

 It's a bit like mining coal.

 If you've only got a few miners, then as you ramp up the miners, the coal
 output will grow, and then level off and shipped coal will be a flat line,
 because there's plenty of coal for each miner. That's what's happening in
 the other Wikipedia's. The haven't got enough contributors to mine all the
 information out and put it in Wikipedia; the number of new articles will be
 flat.

 If you've got a lot of miners, then the amount of coal shipped will climb
 up to a peak, as you get the easiest coal out, and then it gets more
 difficult to mine more and the mining will fall again. That's what's
 happened on the English Wikipedia, with a much bigger number of English
 speakers and editors we've been able to create most of the encyclopedic
 articles we need and polish them up fairly well.

 So the fact that the English Wikipedia's growth is falling is a result of
 wild success, not failure. There's only really a finite number of general
 ideas out there that humans have come up with, and you can only put them in
 Wikipedia once.



I think that analysis is optimistic, for several reasons. Editor numbers
started falling when en:WP had well under 2 million articles. The number of
articles has more than doubled in the five years since then. Editor numbers
in the Japanese Wikipedia, meanwhile, are following a similar pattern of
decline, even though that project is still well below 1 million articles.
This suggests that there can be other reasons than running out of stuff to
write about for a decline in editor numbers. Lastly, it is not as though
there is little work to do in the English Wikipedia. There are backlogs in
multiple areas; including over 600 pending submissions at Articles for
creation.

Given that en:WP now has 4 million articles, a healthy core editor base is
essential to ensure maintenance. A declining core editor base combined with
a rising number of articles is not a good development.

Andreas
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Anthony
On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 9:14 PM, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:
 Incidentally, I have been finishing an experiment involving the
 removal of 100 random external links by an IP; I haven't analyzed it
 yet, so I don't know the outcome, but this gives us an opportunity!

 Would anyone in this thread (especially the ones convinced Wikipedia's
 editing community is in fine shape) care to predict what percentage or
 percentage range they expect will have been reverted?

 Or what percentage/percentage range they would regard as an acceptable
 failure-to-revert rate?

First shouldn't we guess as to what percentage of the links were
actually good in the first place?

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Gwern Branwen
On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 10:49 PM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 First shouldn't we guess as to what percentage of the links were
 actually good in the first place?

I must say, I didn't expect to see someone rationalizing the results
even *before* they happened.

But no, you don't need to guess: you edit Wikipedia, you already know
what external links usually look like, and how many are bad on
average. (From actually doing the deletions, my own appraisal is that
10% were at all questionable, and I felt pretty bad deleting most of
them.)

If you don't, you can go click on Special:Random 10 times and ask
yourself, 'would I delete the last link in the External links
section?' If you think 2 links are rotten, then perhaps you should be
predicting that - since everything is well, and any result is
acceptable, and the status quo is perfect - only 80% of the edits will
be reverted.

I look forward to your percentages.

-- 
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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Alan Liefting

On 17/05/2012 2:21 p.m., Andreas Kolbe wrote:


Given that en:WP now has 4 million articles, a healthy core editor base is
essential to ensure maintenance. A declining core editor base combined with
a rising number of articles is not a good development.

Andreas

I strongly agree. Better still, a higher level of protection is needed 
for what is already on WP, i.e. some sort of peer review such as flagged 
revisions, or pending changes, or editor rights etc.



Alan

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Anthony
On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 10:58 PM, Gwern Branwen gwe...@gmail.com wrote:
 On Wed, May 16, 2012 at 10:49 PM, Anthony wikim...@inbox.org wrote:
 First shouldn't we guess as to what percentage of the links were
 actually good in the first place?

 I must say, I didn't expect to see someone rationalizing the results
 even *before* they happened.

No need to get personal, I wasn't rationalizing anything.

 But no, you don't need to guess: you edit Wikipedia

I do?

 If you don't, you can go click on Special:Random 10 times and ask
 yourself, 'would I delete the last link in the External links
 section?' If you think 2 links are rotten, then perhaps you should be
 predicting that - since everything is well, and any result is
 acceptable, and the status quo is perfect - only 80% of the edits will
 be reverted.

I certainly wouldn't try to make a prediction about the percentage of
links which are bad based on a biased sample where each link was the
last one in the External links section.

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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Alan Liefting

On 17/05/2012 3:49 a.m., Gwern Branwen wrote:


Indeed. Why *are* the skeptical geeks now on Reddit and not Wikipedia?

I take (took?) a hard line on keeping articles when doing new page 
patrol, especially for an unreferenced article from a new contributor.  
WP is under continual attack from spammers, scammer, vandals, 
mischievous students, tests of WP's systems by journalists and academics 
etc. Given all this, and the fact that it is time consuming to chase up 
the veracity of the article contents WP needs to change. (Unfortunately 
instigating change on WP is next to impossible.) The current deletion 
processes are way out of date for what WP now is.  Also, the onus should 
be on an editor to supply refs (unless it is not contentious) rather 
than the overworked regular editors to chase them up.



Alan Liefting


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Re: [WikiEN-l] How the Professor Who Fooled Wikipedia Got Caught by Reddit, _The Atlantic_

2012-05-16 Thread Alan Liefting
Some time ago {{fact}} I had real trouble getting an admin to delete a 
blatant hoax.


Alan

On 17/05/2012 12:09 p.m., WereSpielChequers wrote:

If you spot something is a blatant hoax and delete it after 26 seconds I
think you'll find that even the most ardent inclusionists are as intolerant
of hoaxes as we are of attack pages.

WSC

On 16 May 2012 19:38, Tom Morrist...@tommorris.org  wrote:


On Wednesday, 16 May 2012 at 16:49, Gwern Branwen wrote:

Indeed. Why *are* the skeptical geeks now on Reddit and not Wikipedia?




26 minutes? I'm trying to imagine how much the angry inclusionists would
be soiling my talk page with accusations of BITEyness if I had IAR deleted
this page after just 26 minutes. ;-)

The question also presumes that Wikipedians are not also Redditors.

--
Tom Morris
http://tommorris.org/





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