Ah, haha, darn it, I see, you went from transistors slowing out and yes other
thingy exists - the slow right-now molecular computing you mentioned, which is
far off currently. Though like I said I guess, I hope AI is its own thingy
here, to boost us up like moore's law. It seems to grown large
The doubling time for Moore's law, 1.5 years, is just one of many
technologies that underwent exponential growth for awhile, just like the
automotive industry from 1890 to 1920. If it weren't for the limits of
physics, we should have cars today that travel faster than light and cost
less than a
Aren't you assuming Moore's Law is the only thing happening there to move
progress ahead? You said doubling every 1.5 years... But what happens when we
have 8 billion humanoid robots, for example. Now they move and think 10x faster
in just a couple of years next. Then 20x faster, for example.
Here are Manifold's predictions for SORA by the end of 2025. There is a 12%
chance they can produce a 20-40 minute video. There is a 77% chance OpenAI
will be sued, 30% chance of being banned in at least one EU country. Video
will almost certainly be watermarked.
On Wednesday, February 21, 2024, at 7:05 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote:
> I was not impressed with the music clips, but that's just me.
This is shocking because on my end I have made a buffet of impressive and
diverse masterpieces. And I can tell this is close to perfect they only didn't
give us a
>From your examples it is obvious that text to image and video is rapidly
improving. No doubt we will see this technology in movies by next year. But
there is still a big step to custom generated music replacing mass media in
about 30 years. Video game graphics have vastly improved over the last
*First see my last reply above, I showed something before but maybe you missed
it I guess.*
On Friday, February 16, 2024, at 1:16 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote:
> It costs $1M to $10M to produce a movie for a mass audience that you would
> pay $1 to $10 to watch. If Moore's law drops the price by
On Friday, February 16, 2024, at 1:16 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote:
> Is audio a harder problem than video, or does video have a bigger payoff so
> they attacked it first?
>
https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/13h0zyy/i_really_crank_out_music_tracks_with_musiclm_this/
Video clearly has a lot more commercial and military applications. Moreover,
audio alone doesn't really offer a simulation of physical world with object
permanence etc. Now there won't be user customized movies right away, but the
present production process surely is going to get upended, and
On Fri, Feb 16, 2024, 1:33 AM wrote:
> https://openai.com/research/video-generation-models-as-world-simulators
>
So many questions. How much training data, how much compute to train, how
much compute to generate a video, how many parameters?
It is estimated (because OpenAI didn't say) that
OpenAI has lobotomized DALL-E to the point that it is virtually worthless for
continuity. I doubt they've done much better for switching between scenes of
motion pictures. You can't do such simple things as storyboards or graphic
novels. The way they achieved this feat of engineering?
By
Based on how they describe it, they're using patching and represent videos
as grids of diffused images. Definitely some clever attention work going on
too, since occluded objects also remain pretty stable and also between
camera cuts. The model size is speculated to be not that high either (rumor
I'm officially speechless. Check out the waves example at
https://openai.com/sora. This is photorealism. Are they now simulating physics
too? I wouldn't know how you could distinguish this from a real video. How did
they advance the field by this much with a single release? OpenAI has shown
On Friday, February 16, 2024, at 12:23 PM, immortal.discoveries wrote:
> https://twitter.com/sama/status/1758219575882301608
So the spoon materializes out of thin air, moves strangely and then dissolves
into the bowl. Other than that, I didn't see a single artifact. This is nuts.
> sam posted
sam posted some new ones to his twitter damn so good!
https://twitter.com/sama/status/1758219575882301608
go to his account from this link okl, there's a few!
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