After seeing several messages with Greg Bear as subject, I am wondering if
anyone has read his new book, City at the End of Time. Are there any guidelines
on discussing books here without giving away too much (I'm new here, by the
way)?
As long as I am asking questions, does David Brin have
From: Olin Elliott [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Is City at the End of Time part of the Eon series?
No, it is not related to Eon at all. City was just published this summer.
Frankly, I haven't completely decided whether I liked it or not. It is a rather
odd story, with elements of science fiction and
Olin wrote:
And even if I did trust John McCain personally (which I don't), I
wouldn't trust the Republican machinery that comes with him.
I don't trust McCain, I don't trust Republican machinery, I don't trust Obama,
and I don't trust Democrat's machinery.
I do not trust politicians. Do
From: Doug Pensinger [EMAIL PROTECTED]
You mean like Clinton?
I was not old enough to vote for Clinton, but retroactively, yes, I would vote
for him :-)
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/downchart_gs.php?year=1970_2010view=1expand=units=pfy=fy09chart=F0-fedstack=1title=
Are you
From: Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
are you suggesting that free trade is fair trade?
I was writing about economics, not morality. But since you asked. I do not
think it is fair for someone to take my money and give it to agricultural
corporations. I do not think it is fair for someone
From: Ronn! Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Who do you think it is fair for someone to take your money and give it to?
An efficient justice system, including courts and police. Road and bridge
builders are okay. Military engaged in defending (in a narrow definition of
defend) the country.
Olin Elliott [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The cynical position that all politicians are bad or untrustworthy is no
more reasonable than any other blanket indictment of a group.
I did not reply to this initially because implying that another person's
opinion is unreasonable is not the type of
Gary Nunn [EMAIL PROTECTED]
In a Utopian society, the thinkers and scientists would
proactively look for solutions with the full support of society in general.
However, we are talking about America, a country that thrives on, and
worships convenience. It's not convenient to consider
Doug Pensinger [EMAIL PROTECTED]
So who can we blame for poor leadership and the complete lack of a
comprehensive energy policy?
The same one we blame for poor humanity leadership and complete lack
of a comprehensive intelligent-design policy?
Sorry for the sarcasm, but is blame so
Doug Pensinger [EMAIL PROTECTED]
What is important is that a leader take responsibility for his
administration. It is important that I am able to distinguish between
someone that has done a good job and someone that hasn't when I cast my
vote.
So in that case, yea, blame is pretty
Charlie Bell [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Yes - regulations should be about putting a brake on waste and
environmental damage, unethical practices and exploitation.
I don't understand the yes, since what follows the yes does not agree with
what
I wrote. Waste is not something that can be efficiently
[EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
It is clear that climate change is not something
the market can handle in any effective manner. Only government action has any
possibility of tackling this problem.
I do not have blind faith in government to solve difficult problems. The only
way
that
Charlie Bell [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I'd say that the American free market is an illusion
anyway.
I'd agree that the United State's market is far from free. I did not
intend to compare countries. Indeed, the more global the market,
the better, as far as I am concerned.
So allowing a logging
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
If not, then somebody has successfully re-framed our conversations in an
unfortunate way.
Sorry, I did not mean the groups to be mutually-exclusive or all-encompassing.
Some posts seem to fit into both, some neither. But is was interesting to
see how similar
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
my priority is regulation of those who have way too much property.
The very fact that you are posting an email
here suggests that you have more property than millions, and probably
billions of people in the world.
Kevin B. O'Brien [EMAIL PROTECTED]
If the problem were not urgent, if we had the luxury of reducing CO2
emissions by 30% over the next hundred years, I would probably agree
with you. Tweaking market incentives would probably be a very good way
to address that sort of problem. But when
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
it will become much, much worse in this century. some
estimates are that we will reach critical mass in four more years, and then
the
problem will correct itself...
I think those estimates may be a bit off. My estimate is 5 years.
Oh, wait, I just
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
For public companies, the long run is anything more than a year or two,
What is it for politicians?
Who cares if the company will run out of trees, as long as it isn't going to
happen until long after the current senior management and board are gone?
I'd peg
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
my priority is regulation of those who have way too much property.
as a matter of fact, i own a home in eureka, california, and forty acres in
shasta county. which is certainly more than most people in the world, but far
less than the kind of corporate
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
you know very well that is not what i mean.
Sorry for being dense, but I do not. You wrote about people who
have way too much property. How much is way too much?
___
Kevin B. O'Brien [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Well, that certainly explains a lot. Where did you find the evidence for
this opinion?
Here and there on the web, and my own calculations. Hopefully I didn't
move the decimal the wrong way. If we only have 0.05 years, then I
need to get a few things
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
i think it is already too late, considering humanity's greed, and lack of
foresight.
Could be. I had a heck of a time getting a statistically significant r-squared
with a 4th order curve fit to the modified Malthus equation, particularly with
the stiffness
From: Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I'm not sure that all that many people have learned not to be greedy and
short-term focused.
No doubt. But some have learned that house prices don't always go up.
My posting was ironically predictive, as my job fell victim to the market's
obsession with
Ronn! Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED]
You obviously have B.S. in statistics.
You obviously are overestimating me. Try a non-linear curve fit.
___
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Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
the way i see it is focusing on cash returns is a BAD thing no matter how
efficient it makes the market:
How would you allocate resources among all the people who say if I only had
this then I could accomplish ___?
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
it's not just about population demographics; it is about large carbon
footprints
due to capitalism, greed, and materialism. western populations are probably
one
of the worse offenders, but the asian countries are rapidly catching up with
our
model.
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
the way i see it is focusing on cash returns is a BAD thing no matter how
efficient it makes the market:
Good point. If the market were less efficient, almost no one would be able to
afford computers or Internet access. Then no one would need to listen
to
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
you don't get it john, the market is fixed; it is rigged by the plutocrats.
Thank you Jon! I've been so naive, but you have opened my eyes. Those
evil plutocrats have really kept me down, but I won't stand for it any more!
they don't care what all this
Ronn! Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED]
You're saying that what you wrote earlier doesn't come up to the level of
B.S.?
Now you're twisting my words. Straighten up and try a linear curve fit!
___
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
h... what goes around comes around...
No, that would be x*x + y*y = 1
___
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Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sarcasm is the lingua franca of the internet, John. It is the signature of
your
suppressed hostility, and allows you to be critical without actually exposing
or
defending your own reactionary opinions (or actually refuting your
opponents).
Who
Julia Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED]
You might have problems with the part where you bury yourself
Good point. I doubt there would be a shortage of volunteers to help me
with the problem, however. We will bury you.
___
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Isn't cremation is better for the environment; ashes to ashes?
How much carbon is released into the atmosphere from a cremation?
I will be delighted to answer your
questions when you are able to state them in context...
The problem is that I am
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
When did I say, individuals may own ANY amount of property? I think that
owning 10 houses (like the McCains) is way too much, but one house per family
is
about right, but that is only my opinion. My forty acres is in French Gulch,
California and I
William T Goodall [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The invisible hand is as much a belief as invisible pink unicorns. The
'free market' is just the composite action of people who are mostly
very stupid and ignorant.
Hmmm, I thought that was obvious enough to go without saying, but
apparently not.
The
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
There you go again, putting words in my mouth.
It's a tough job, but someone has got to do it.
However, if you want to give me half the excess, I will accept.
It's negative (I'm one of those oppressed renters that you evil plutocratsand
property owners
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
how does the free market allocate resources and cash returns?
The free market does not allocate cash returns. The free market
allocates resources (for details, please study basic economics).
Cash returns are the outcome of an investment. In simple terms, the
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
*The way? Or *a* way?
A way. The best way I've seen. But if you know of a better way,
I'd certainly be interested.
Surely it is generally accepted that the free market fails sometimes.
Surely. How could an emergent system be perfect?
Otherwise we wouldn't
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Because that's what I hear when I read that the free market is *the* way.
But you have backed off from the definite. ;-)
Backed off? The discussion you referenced was about how
I (or Jon, or someone else) would choose to allocate resources. _The_
way _I_ would
Ronn! Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Is it digital-ready? As I've mentioned before,
one way of looking at that is as a way that the
manufacturers of the equipment and the providers
of programming have come up with to get some more
money out of those who have been living too long
with
John Williams [EMAIL PROTECTED]
(I think the deal may be over now,
but you can check with a web search). I remember at one
point there was a converter box that sold for $40, so with
the rebate people could get the box for no out-of-pocket
cost.
The rebate is still available.
https
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
you can not assume that all consensual deals are fair, and should be
allowed
without any regulation.
Yes, I can. If it is legal and consensual, then you have no right to impose your
opinions on others.
exploit resources and labor in
undeveloped
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Perhaps you didn't understand. Begging the question is a logical problem
with an argument.
Perhaps. Or perhaps it begs the question, why do you think your opinion is
more useful than the law and consensual agreement between others, your
highness?
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Feel free to return to whatever you were doing before I jumped in.
Thank you, your highness!
___
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Ronn! Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Whether I am aware of it is less the point than whether little old
ladies living alone on Social Security need something else technical
to bother with.
So, you think elderly women are too stupid to plug in a cable and a
power cord? Good thing they have
Andrew Crystall [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Yes, and you get what you pay for - in reviews, that box scored
considerably lower than analogue TV.
Yeah, don't you hate it when free things are of poor quality? I always
demand my money back.
___
Andrew Crystall [EMAIL PROTECTED]
It's certainly something I'd want to know about (and returns on the
voucher? No, not allowed so sorry) given that there are $50-60 boxes
which give a perfectly good image output.
Sure, I'd certainly pay $10 or $20 for a better box. Which model would you
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
you tell me, john,
I already did. You believe that the amount you own is okay, but people may not
own more than you. You believe that the way to allocate resources is for
everyone
to ask you if it is okay, since you obviously know what everyone else should do.
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
it is not a question of putting
a foreign worker out of a job. there is no reason why their government can
not
generate a strong economy to employ their own workers, especially in nations
that are wealthy in natural resources.
What exactly did you
[EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Well, my mom seems to have a trouble with new things. She has a far
different
way of looking at things, and when I try to explain them, she keeps on asking
questions that don't lead to understanding.
She isn't stupid, but at 88 she doesn't adapt well.
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]go back and read what i did
i am NOT
telling anyone how much property they can own, OR how much they can consume.
Good for you! I'm glad to hear that you no longer support restrictions on
property
ownership and free trade.
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
does it take that much intelligence to submit to economic slavery
rather than starve?
Choosing to do a job that makes you better off than choosing
to do some other job (or not working at all) does not take a lot of
intelligence. Which is part of why I think
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
no one individual (not even bill gates) is going to make a
dent in wage inequities, out of their own pocket.
Ah, I see, you don't want to give your own money to help people. You want
to give OTHER people's money! A cunning plan...
Bruce Bostwick [EMAIL PROTECTED]
As long
as there's an unregulated-labor pool outside that scope, organized
labor is fighting a losing battle because it is still ultimately only
pricing itself out of the market.
Seems the obvious solution is to not price oneself out of the market,
Bruce Bostwick [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Most of them already know -- they don't need me to tell them.
If you say so. You are obviously an expert entrepreneur. But no
doubt your skills are more useful telling people what they should do
than what they do not have the intelligence or ability to do.
By the way, another excellent economics book relevant to our discussion and
requiring little background economics knowledge is The Power of Productivity:
Wealth, Poverty, and the Threat to Global Stability by William W. Lewis. This
book discusses how rules and policy affect productivity in a
Ronn! Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED]
That said, it's hard to see how this forced change is about anything
else but money:
No, it is not hard to see. A lot of people appreciate the benefits of HDTV,
as evidenced by the number of people with cable who are willing to pay
extra for HD service.
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I believe that how a society treats its most vulnerable is a much more
appropriate measure. How does your ideology address that?
I have no ideology, unless you consider live and let live to be one. If you
are asking whether I believe in helping people who
[EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
, I'm going to ask some questions that others interpret as setting
strawmen.
I'm not saying don't ask, but I won't guarantee an answer. Although you wouldn't
know it from my posts, I actually wanted to discuss science fiction when
I joined this list (I got
[EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Do you agree that having a FDIC and a Federal Reserve System is an acceptable
intervention in the free market?
Sure, they can be helpful. I'd like to see private bank insurance rather than
the FDIC,
but that is probably a pipe dream since even a Berkshire
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I have list of some of my favorite novels I can e-mail you if interested...
Thanks for the offer. I am usually only interested in discussing recent
SF novels while I am reading them or while they are still fresh in my
mind after I recently read them.
Any
Julia Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED]
How long is Anathem?
890 pages + about 40 pages of supplementary material at the back. I'm on page
72.
If it's under, say, 800 pages, I might pick up a
copy at FenCon and have it read by Christmas
Ah, well.
Doug Pensinger [EMAIL PROTECTED]
So have you read Bank's most recent, Matter?
I read it when it came out, but I seem to have forgotten most of it. I
remember slogging through long descriptive passages wondering when the
action would start, and when it finally did (at the very end) the ending
Julia Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Well, maybe I'll look at it and weigh it (and I could do that in more than
one way!) and at least think about it.
It definitely gets better. I'm on page 235 and I can't put it down. The first
80 pages were tough going for me, with long descriptive passages in
Ronn! Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Isn't that pretty much how we got to have approaching 7 billion
people in the world?
Don't be silly, Ronn. It is all the people who have MORE children
than Jon who are the real problem!
___
Julia Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED]
He had 2.
I have 3.
The solution is simple. He must have more children! We need a new regulation.
___
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Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
This seems to me to be a bit like Newtonian v. quantum physics. The former
is fine for gross measurements, the latter for fine ones... and the two
haven't been reconciled.
Skipped Physics 101, did you?
___
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion brin-l@mccmedia.com
Sent: Sunday, September 21, 2008 8:33:20 AM
Subject: Re: Science and Ideals.
On Sun, Sep 21, 2008 at 8:28 AM, John Williams
wrote:
Nick Arnett
This seems to me to be a bit like
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Yes, it is so sad. Almost as sad as the patronizing attitude some folks
exhibit when they are certain that most everybody else is an idiot.
Yes, that is sad. Especially when combined with the idea that all those
idiots must be taken care of by those who think
John Williams [EMAIL PROTECTED]
realize it when their infallibility is pointed out.
Such as this lack of infallibility. I certainly hope this guy doesn't
try to force his will on others with mistakes like that!
___
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Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Anyway, I suspect you are trying to cross-pollinate threads here by alluding
to political ideas I expressed elsewhere and implying that they must be
wrong because I misspoke here.
I am not implying that anything must be wrong, only that some know less
than
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
May I ask this... you seem to be implying that to impose one's will on
others is wrong. Is that what you would have us believe?
I would not presume to tell you what to believe. I rarely know what to believe
myself. But one thing I do know is that when people
An interesting blog post about sustainability on another island:
http://cafehayek.typepad.com/hayek/2008/09/a-letter-inspir.html
___
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John Williams [EMAIL PROTECTED]
But one thing I do know is that when people try to impose their ideals
on me, I feel that I should oppose them.
I think this may have a connection to Doug's post.
The statement above could perhaps be taken as part of the basis of an
ethical system. Something
Charlie Bell [EMAIL PROTECTED]
It's possible to tell people they're wrong and point out opposing
views without constantly implying that the other party is in some way
trying to be superior.
That is not what I was implying.
It makes for a much friendlier discussion, and
this is a
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The examples that come to me are things like urging others to vote for the
candidate I believe to be most qualified or urging people to give to certain
charities that believe do good work.
Are you being serious here? Do you really think that might be what I
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I'm struggling to see those as examples of people imposing their will on
others.
Pick one that you are struggling with and I will be glad to explain if you
really
cannot see it.
___
Dan M [EMAIL PROTECTED]
There are rigorous ways to look at correlations and to ask questions
precisely that decrease the chance at false correlations.
Yes.
But, before I apply the toolbox of techniques I've learned such techniques
to analyzing your and my hypotheses, I'd like to know if
Wayne Eddy [EMAIL PROTECTED]
If I moved to the US
(which I wouldn't) part of the deal I would strike with the government would
be to accept say bans on short selling of stick if the government decided
that was a good idea,
What if the government decided all citizens who immigrated from
Dan M [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The meltdown on Wall Street was real,
The tuna melt I had for lunch was real, too.
and posed great risk.
Now you sound like a politician, trying to whip everyone into a frenzy so that
they can spend billions of taxpayer dollars to bail out a bunch of rich and
Would you care to inform me what my theory is that you repeatedly refer
to, claim all economists disagree with, and proceed to list some data and
some anecdotal evidence that you say disproves my theory?
___
Dan M [EMAIL PROTECTED]
That wasteful government spending is the source of inflation. If this were
true, then the inflation curve would track the government spending curb.
Which it does, at least better than it tracks money supply. If you look at the
time series for inflation, money supply,
Julia Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The general SEC requirement had been to limit it to 12X. An exception was
made in 2004 for 5 companies - Goldman, Merrill, Lehman, Bear Stearns, and
Morgan Stanley.
And, since I know someone is going to yell, Cite!, I will:
Wayne Eddy [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Another part of the deal (there would of course be thousands of parts)
would be assurances that I would not become a slave after I emigrated (I
believe the American constitution would spell that out).
Since the American constitution can be amended, that would
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I see some confusion here about consent versus consensus.
I said nothing about consensus. Now that you've mentioned that you
post nonsense if you don't have enough caffeine, I don't know when
to take your posts seriously.
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Yes, you said nothing about consensus. That is exactly why I brought it up.
You seem to have confused me with someone else. You get confused a lot,
don't you?
___
Olin Elliott [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Don't forget, Hitler was elected by Democratic means.
Let me guess Nick's response:
I see some confusion about elected versus selected by a
vote. Let's debate which is better. Or perhaps we could
all vote on a rule about which language we may use.
Alberto Monteiro [EMAIL PROTECTED]
This is a myth. He was elected by the parliament, which is not
democratic. It's like Bush II in 2000, who was elected by the
electoral college, and not by the people.
Ah, so you are saying it was only about 49.9% of the popular
preference, instead of
Alberto Monteiro [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I have no fsking idea what you are trolling about.
That makes two of us! I'm having a good day if I understand
more that 50% of what I am trolling about.
OTOH, Bush II was _accepted_ by 75% of the USA voters - only
25% voted against him.
26%, you didn't
Jon Louis Mann [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Trolling is Internet slang is someone who posts controversial, irrelevant or
off-topic messages in online community discussion forums, or chat rooms, with
the intention of provoking other users into an emotional response, or to
deliberately disrupt normal
Nick Arnett [EMAIL PROTECTED]
If there isn't a reasonable correlation there, then democracy is in trouble.
Perhaps so.
Or perhaps people place too much faith in politicians and government, and
would be better off reducing their power and scope.
Dan M [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Now, you can argue that Sears and Ford are questionable, but GE? The point
is that the liquidity of the market was drying up. And, at
No, the liquidity of the market was not drying up. Interest rates went up. As
they should. As they should have long ago if there
Dan M [EMAIL PROTECTED]
The problem was that no-one (including the board of directors of AIG knew
that AIG was insolvent until the day the government intervened.
LOL! Do you believe in the tooth fairy, too?
At that point, _everything_ becomes questionable. GE having to pay nearly
double
Charlie Bell [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Instead of mocking, why don't you try EXPLAINING.
Instead of telling other people what you think they should do,
why don't YOU explain whatever you believe needs explaining?
___
Dan M [EMAIL PROTECTED]
That's
what the interest rate measures...the willingness of folks to buy GE notes.
Gee, really? It couldn't possibly be just a little more complicated than that?
A rational
market wouldn't change GE's interest rate that quickly
Again, really? Either you are
Euan Ritchie [EMAIL PROTECTED]
That combination of economic depression and exploitable militarism is
something to worry about, really quite topical.
I agree. I think it is scary.
Although a problematic example it does give on pause to wonder about the
situation where a democratic election
Euan Ritchie [EMAIL PROTECTED]
It amazes me (was this AIG or Fanny and Freddie, I forget) that they
went to ask for some 30 Billion but on a couple of days investigation it
turned out to be more like 70 Billion was needed to meet their obligations.
The management of the relevant company
Dan M [EMAIL PROTECTED]
But, my understanding is that the bundling has become so
layered and convoluted that folks really didn't understand what was
happening in real time. With the amount of leverage that exists, a
perfectly reasonable looking position can fall apart quickly.
Yes, and if
Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED]
From: John Williams
Gee, really? It couldn't possibly be just a little more complicated than that?
Me:
There are more factors,
Yes, that is what I was referring to.
but in the short-term money market, not that many, really.
Surely the laws of supply
Kevin B. O'Brien [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Now, most decent spreadsheet programs will not let you get away with
this circular reference, but an unregulated market can. Essentially, it
all came down to a shell game where everyone was insuring each others
risks, and then convincing themselves that
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