Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
On Tue, 3 Dec 2002, Adam C. Lipscomb wrote: I knew he couldn't keep out of a debate that touched on philosophy! How long did you hold out, Marvin? A week? ;) Hey, that doesn't mean anything. It's not like I'm addicted or anything. I can quit any time I want! Marvin Long Austin, Texas Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Ashcroft, LLP (Formerly the USA) ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
Dan Minette wrote: Why did you use the future tense? What you predicted is exactly what happened in Serbia: namely the de-europeization of Kosovo. Well, that's a different story. Kosovo came under Musilim rule when the Ottoman empire conquered it in 1455. The Ottoman empire only lost control after WWI. It's *not* a different story, because Kosovo was majoritarily Christian in the early XX century or so. Then, immigrants from Albania came, first as a minority, then as an aggressive and increasing minority, then as a majority. My bet is that the next country to be Kosovoed is Germany - a fine irony for their n--- past. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
- Original Message - From: Alberto Monteiro [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 12:39 PM Subject: Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US Dan Minette wrote: Why did you use the future tense? What you predicted is exactly what happened in Serbia: namely the de-europeization of Kosovo. Well, that's a different story. Kosovo came under Musilim rule when the Ottoman empire conquered it in 1455. The Ottoman empire only lost control after WWI. It's *not* a different story, because Kosovo was majoritarily Christian in the early XX century or so. Then, immigrants from Albania came, first as a minority, then as an aggressive and increasing minority, then as a majority. The sources I read suggested that immigration from Albania has been going on for 400+ years. What was the fraction in the early 20th century? My bet is that the next country to be Kosovoed is Germany - a fine irony for their n--- past. If you extrapolate the fraction of German population that is Turkish over the last 30 years, how long will it take for Turks to become 10% of the population? At 2.3% of the population, they don't seem to be there in large numbers. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
- Original Message - From: Alberto Monteiro [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 5:31 PM Subject: Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US Dan Minette wrote: The sources I read suggested that immigration from Albania has been going on for 400+ years. What was the fraction in the early 20th century? You are the statistics guy. Get your sources :-P OK at http://www.decani.yunet.com/histkim.html we have The Great 1690 Migration was a important turning point in the history of the Serbs. In Kosovo and Metohia alone, towns and some villages were abandoned to the last inhabitantThe century after the Great Migration saw a fresh exodus of the Serbs from Kosovo and Metohia, and a growing influence of ethnic Albanians on political circumstances. And Ethnic circumstances in Kosovo and Metohia in the early 19th century can be reconstructed on the basis of data obtained from the books written by foreign travel writers and ethnographers who journeyed across European Turkey. Joseph Miller's studies show that in late 1830s, 56,200 Christians and 80,150 Muslims lived in Metohia; 11,740 of the Muslims were Islamized Serbs, and 2,700 of the Christians were Catholic Albanians. However, clear picture of the ethnic structure during this period cannot be obtained until one takes into account the fact that from 1815 to 1837 some 320 families, numbering ten to 30 members each, fled Kosovo and Metohia ahead of ethnic Albanian violence. According to Hilferding's figures, Pec numbered 4,000 Muslim and 800 Christian families, Pristina numbered 1,200 Muslim, 900 Orthodox and 100 Catholic families with a population of 12,000 and... Despite the persecution and the steady outflow of people. Serbs still accounted for almost half the population in Kosovo and Metohia in 1912. So, I'd argue that in the Kosovo region, there was an Albanian majority a long way back. My bet is that the next country to be Kosovoed is Germany - a fine irony for their n--- past. If you extrapolate the fraction of German population that is Turkish over the last 30 years, how long will it take for Turks to become 10% of the population? See above :-) Well, my understanding is that the Turkish population as a % of the population has been pretty steady over the last 20 years. I know that from '98 to '00, the Turkish population actually fell. So, the extrapolated increase would probably not arrive at 10% in the 21st century. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
http://denbeste.nu/external/Kagan01.html A really, really fascinating article from _Policy Review_. I think people will find it interesting. I agree with Kagan almost entirely, save that I think he underestimates the extent to which long-term demographic and economic trends will exacerbate the split that he describes. Gautam __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail Plus - Powerful. Affordable. Sign up now. http://mailplus.yahoo.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
on 2/12/02 4:57 pm, Gautam Mukunda at [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: http://denbeste.nu/external/Kagan01.html A really, really fascinating article from _Policy Review_. I think people will find it interesting. I agree with Kagan almost entirely, save that I think he underestimates the extent to which long-term demographic and economic trends will exacerbate the split that he describes. Gautam 1) So Europe's lack of interest in developing military force, and the US's role in defending Europe are a Good Thing. 2) Which is just as well because it isn't going to change anyhow. 3) So that's all right then. -- William T Goodall [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.wtgab.demon.co.uk/ ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
On Mon, Dec 02, 2002 at 03:51:21PM -0600, Julia Thompson wrote: So, should I continue reading it, or leave it only having gotten about 1/3 of the way through? (Or should I just take a break and come back to it later, when I'm not quite so tired?) If you are expecting a strong conclusion or fresh idea to come in at the end, or any sort of denouement, then you will be disappointed. I think his description of the different viewpoints and their causes is interesting, but there isn't much there beyond that. Most of the meat is in the first 1/3 or 1/2, I suppose. -- Erik Reuter [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.erikreuter.net/ ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
- Original Message - From: Erik Reuter [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Monday, December 02, 2002 3:53 PM Subject: Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US On Mon, Dec 02, 2002 at 03:51:21PM -0600, Julia Thompson wrote: So, should I continue reading it, or leave it only having gotten about 1/3 of the way through? (Or should I just take a break and come back to it later, when I'm not quite so tired?) If you are expecting a strong conclusion or fresh idea to come in at the end, or any sort of denouement, then you will be disappointed. I think his description of the different viewpoints and their causes is interesting, but there isn't much there beyond that. Most of the meat is in the first 1/3 or 1/2, I suppose. I disagree. A piece of analysis need not present an action plan. It is worthwhile if it can rise above the stereotypes of Europe and the US that tend to prevail today. Further, he does so while showing how we got to where we are in pursuit of some very worthwhile goals. Let me quote from towards the bottom of the article: Even though the United States pursued Acheson's vision during the Cold War, there was always a part of American policy that reflected Roosevelt's vision, too. Eisenhower undermining Britain and France at Suez was only the most blatant of many American efforts to cut Europe down to size and reduce its already weakened global influence. So, the US deliberately cut down the chances of a European started WWIII, like WWI and WWII were started by decreasing the power of Europe. As a result, and as a result of having the troops in Europe that guaranteed the inability of Germany to flex its muscles a third time in the 20th century, it was the midwife at the birth of the present Europe. Another worthwhile insight from the bottom of the work is: What this means is that although the United States has played the critical role in bringing Europe into this Kantian paradise, and still plays a key role in making that paradise possible, it cannot enter this paradise itself. It mans the walls but cannot walk through the gate. The United States, with all its vast power, remains stuck in history, left to deal with the Saddams and the ayatollahs, the Kim Jong Ils and the Jiang Zemins, leaving the happy benefits to others. The conclusion is not a big snazzy finish, but it is probably a reasonable one. Both Europeans and Americans need to act in a manner that reflects an understanding of the validity of the position of the other. Both need to understand the common roots of their different positions. Both need to understand how the differences in their viewpoints come from their different developments. That neither position is an immoral one. Yet, neither position is without risks. I also see the demographics and related economics affecting the relationship in three ways. First, as Europe population peaks and declines, its economic power will also decline and it will become less important to the US. Second, as the population of the US becomes less European-American, the ties to the old country will look less to Europe and more to the rest of the world. At the present time, the US is 70% Euro-American, by 2060 it is projected to be less than half. Third, as Europe ages, there will be the natural division between the old and the young. To see how fast this trend is going, lets consider population data from Germany. In 1998, the ratio of the population 0-15 to the population =65 was .99. In 2000 it was .93. Further, the demographic bulge in Germany in 2000 was from 28 to 50. From 36 to 28, the population per year drops over 40%. As the demographic budge leaves the child bearing ages, the population 5 should drop precipitously. The real risk in this is not that the US will fight Europe. Its that Europe will become marginalized, and the US will operate without constraints or effective feedback. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
Dan Minette wrote: The real risk in this is not that the US will fight Europe. Its that Europe will become marginalized, and the US will operate without constraints or effective feedback. I think this ignores (and I think Kagan ignored it too) the infiltration of Europe through its southern borders. Enormous numbers of middle eastern, near eastern and north african migrants are swarming into Europe, and bringing their high birth rates with them. The US is obviously experiencing this at a higher rate of course, but the fact is that Europe will become less european in the years to come, just as the US does. I'm guessing, but I suspect that these migrants won't integrate into European society as well as the American immigrants, and regional ethnic clusters will form in sufficient size to allow political representation in those countries with suffrance (sp?). I can't pretend to make predictions about these things, but I see the possibility of Europe creating enemies to her south by restricting this infiltration, increasing her reliance on the US. I also see the possibility of Europe becoming influenced (controlled?) by these (muslim) nations to where the US needs to maintain a defence capability against Europe much as it did against the USSR. (of course it is also possible that these immigrants will bring their disputes with them and spend eternity bickering with each other in their new homeland, and have no net effect at all). Cheers Russell C. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
Why did you use the future tense? What you predicted is exactly what happened in Serbia: namely the de-europeization of Kosovo. Alberto Monteiro Russell Chapman wrote: I think this ignores (and I think Kagan ignored it too) the infiltration of Europe through its southern borders. Enormous numbers of middle eastern, near eastern and north african migrants are swarming into Europe, and bringing their high birth rates with them. The US is obviously experiencing this at a higher rate of course, but the fact is that Europe will become less european in the years to come, just as the US does. I'm guessing, but I suspect that these migrants won't integrate into European society as well as the American immigrants, and regional ethnic clusters will form in sufficient size to allow political representation in those countries with suffrance (sp?). I can't pretend to make predictions about these things, but I see the possibility of Europe creating enemies to her south by restricting this infiltration, increasing her reliance on the US. I also see the possibility of Europe becoming influenced (controlled?) by these (muslim) nations to where the US needs to maintain a defence capability against Europe much as it did against the USSR. (of course it is also possible that these immigrants will bring their disputes with them and spend eternity bickering with each other in their new homeland, and have no net effect at all). ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Robert Kagan on Europe and the US
Dan Minette wrote: Well, that might or might not happen. What do you call near east, BTW? East Europe has a very low birth rate, so they won't bring a high birth rate with them. D'oh! I forgot - near east is different for Australians than other westerners... (and yet we still call the far east the far east, even though we are further east of them...) I was referring to India, Pakistan and Afghanistan etc for the migrants (most of whom seem to be going to Britain rather than continental Europe). Cheers Russell C. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
