Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2012-07-29 Thread Dave
I almost dread entering into this discussion, but I think it should be pointed out that this discussion occurs in various forms in both Leonard Jimmie Savage's Foundations of Statistics and E T Jaynes Probability Theory. I would also point out that you are missing key elements of both the

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-31 Thread Bruno Marchal
On 31 Aug 2009, at 03:50, marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 31, 4:19 am, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 30 Aug 2009, at 10:12, marc.geddes wrote: But look at this. I decide to do the following experience. I prepare an electron so that it is in state up+down. I measure it in the

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-31 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 31, 8:10 pm, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 31 Aug 2009, at 03:50, marc.geddes wrote: This assumes that qualia are completely determined by the wave function, which (since Bohm is non-reductionist) I'm sure he'd dispute.  The wave function only predicts physical

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-31 Thread Bruno Marchal
On 31 Aug 2009, at 11:28, marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 31, 8:10 pm, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 31 Aug 2009, at 03:50, marc.geddes wrote: This assumes that qualia are completely determined by the wave function, which (since Bohm is non-reductionist) I'm sure he'd dispute.

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-30 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 30, 7:23 pm, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 30 Aug 2009, at 07:06, marc.geddes wrote: It’s true that there is no wave function collapse in Bohm, so it uses the same math as Everett.  But Bohm does not interpret the wave function in ‘many world’ terms, in Bohm the wave

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-30 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 30, 7:05 pm, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: This does not make sense. You said; The truth of Gödel sentences are formally trivial. The process of finding out its own Gödel sentence is mechanical. The diagonilization is constructive. Gödel's proof is constructive. That is what

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-30 Thread Bruno Marchal
On 30 Aug 2009, at 10:12, marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 30, 7:23 pm, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 30 Aug 2009, at 07:06, marc.geddes wrote: It’s true that there is no wave function collapse in Bohm, so it uses the same math as Everett. But Bohm does not interpret the wave

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-30 Thread Bruno Marchal
On 30 Aug 2009, at 10:34, marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 30, 7:05 pm, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: This does not make sense. You said; The truth of Gödel sentences are formally trivial. The process of finding out its own Gödel sentence is mechanical. The diagonilization is

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-30 Thread Bruno Marchal
On 30 Aug 2009, at 18:55, Bruno Marchal wrote: Not at all. Most theories can formally determined their Gödel sentences, and even bet on them. They can use them to transform themselves into more powerful, with respect to probability, machines, inheriting new Gödel sentences, and they can

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-30 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 31, 4:55 am, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 30 Aug 2009, at 10:34, marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 30, 7:05 pm, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: This does not make sense. You said; The truth of Gödel sentences are formally trivial. The process of finding

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-30 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 31, 4:19 am, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 30 Aug 2009, at 10:12, marc.geddes wrote: But look at this. I decide to do the following experience. I prepare   an electron so that it is in state up+down. I measure it in the base   {up, down}, and I decide to take holiday

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-30 Thread Brent Meeker
marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 31, 4:19 am, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 30 Aug 2009, at 10:12, marc.geddes wrote: But look at this. I decide to do the following experience. I prepare an electron so that it is in state up+down. I measure it in the base {up,

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-30 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 31, 3:23 pm, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: A weakness of MWI is that it does not describe the reality we actually see - additional steps are needed to convert wave function to human observables - Bohm makes this clear, MWI just disguises it.  

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 29, 5:30 am, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: See for example ‘Theory and Reality’  (Peter Godfrey Smith) and debates in philosophy about prediction versus integration.  True explanation is more than just prediction, and involves *integration* of

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread Brent Meeker
marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 29, 5:21 am, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: Look at Winbugs or R. They compute with some pretty complex priors - that's what Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were invented for. Complex =/= uncomputable. Techniques such the Monte Carlo

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread Brent Meeker
marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 29, 5:30 am, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: See for example ‘Theory and Reality’ (Peter Godfrey Smith) and debates in philosophy about prediction versus integration. True explanation is more than just prediction, and

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 29, 6:41 pm, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 29, 5:30 am, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: *Before* you can even begin to assign probabilities to anything, you first need to form symbolic representations of

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 29, 6:16 pm, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: Stathis once pointed on this list that crazy people can actually still perform axiomatic reasoning very well, and invent all sorts of elaborate justifications, the problem is their priors, not their reasoning; so if you

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 29, 6:50 pm, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: Ok, probablistic/axiomatic, none of it works without the correct priors, which Bayes can't produce.   Bayes explicitly doesn't pretend to produce priors - although some have invented ways of producing

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread Brent Meeker
marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 29, 6:41 pm, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 29, 5:30 am, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: *Before* you can even begin to assign probabilities to anything, you

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread Brent Meeker
marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 29, 6:50 pm, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: Ok, probablistic/axiomatic, none of it works without the correct priors, which Bayes can't produce. Bayes explicitly doesn't pretend to produce priors - although

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 29, 7:34 pm, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: No, I think the buck stops with analogical reasoning, since no form of reasoning is more powerful. Analogical reasoning can produce priors and handle knowledge representation (via categorization),

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread Bruno Marchal
On 29 Aug 2009, at 07:15, marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 29, 2:36 am, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: Obviously (?, by Gödel) Arithmetic (arithmetical truth) is infinitely larger that what you can prove in ZF theory. Godel’s theorem doesn’t mean that anything is *absolutely*

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread Bruno Marchal
On 29 Aug 2009, at 08:09, marc.geddes wrote: Bohm's interpretation of QM is utterly precise and was published in a scientific journal (Phys. Rev, 1952). In the more than 50 years since, no technical rebuttal has yet been found, and it is fully consistent with all predictions of standard

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread Bruno Marchal
On 29 Aug 2009, at 14:10, Bruno Marchal wrote: This is the case for the p modalities. They are provably necessarily non axiomatisable. They lead to the frst person, which, solipstically, does separate truth and provability. I mean does NOT separate truth and provability (like solipsist).

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 30, 12:10 am, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gödel's_incompleteness_theorems The TRUE but unprovable statement referred to by the theorem is often referred to as “the Gödel sentence” for the theory. The sentence is unprovable within the

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 30, 12:22 am, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: On 29 Aug 2009, at 08:09, marc.geddes wrote: Bohm's interpretation of QM is utterly precise and was published in a scientific journal (Phys. Rev, 1952).  In the more than 50 years since, no technical rebuttal has yet been

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-29 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 29, 7:12 pm, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: marc.geddes wrote: There are many logicians who think that Bayesian inference can serve as the entire foundation of rationality and is the most powerful form of reasoning possible (the rationalist ideal).   Cox showed it

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-28 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 28, 6:58 am, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: So how are you going to get around Cox's theorem?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox%27s_theorem Cox's theorem is referring to laws of probability for making predictions. I agree Bayesian inference is best for this. But it

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-28 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 27, 7:35 pm, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: Zermelo Fraenkel theory has full transfinite induction power, but is   still limited by Gödel's incompleteness. What Gentzen showed is that   you can prove the consistency of ARITHMETIC by a transfinite induction   up to

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-28 Thread Bruno Marchal
On 28 Aug 2009, at 10:47, marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 27, 7:35 pm, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: Zermelo Fraenkel theory has full transfinite induction power, but is still limited by Gödel's incompleteness. What Gentzen showed is that you can prove the consistency of ARITHMETIC

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-28 Thread Brent Meeker
marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 28, 6:58 am, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: So how are you going to get around Cox's theorem?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cox%27s_theorem Cox's theorem is referring to laws of probability for making predictions. I agree Bayesian inference is

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-28 Thread Brent Meeker
marc.geddes wrote: On Aug 27, 7:35 pm, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: Zermelo Fraenkel theory has full transfinite induction power, but is still limited by Gödel's incompleteness. What Gentzen showed is that you can prove the consistency of ARITHMETIC by a transfinite

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-28 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 29, 2:36 am, Bruno Marchal marc...@ulb.ac.be wrote: Obviously (?, by Gödel) Arithmetic (arithmetical truth) is infinitely   larger that what you can prove in ZF theory. Godel’s theorem doesn’t mean that anything is *absolutely* undecidable; it just means that not all truths can

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-28 Thread marc.geddes
On Aug 29, 5:21 am, Brent Meeker meeke...@dslextreme.com wrote: Look at Winbugs or R.  They compute with some pretty complex priors - that's what Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were invented for. Complex =/= uncomputable. Techniques such the Monte Carlo method don’t scale well.

Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-27 Thread marc.geddes
That which can be destroyed by the truth should be. -- P.C. Hodgell Today, among logicians, Bayesian Inference seems to be the new dogma for all encompassing theory of rationality. But I have different ideas, so I'm going to present an argument suggesting an alternative form of reasoning. In

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-27 Thread Bruno Marchal
On 27 Aug 2009, at 08:19, marc.geddes wrote: But is there a form of math more powerful than algebra? Yes, Category/ Set Theory! Unlike algebra, Category/Set theory really *can* fully reason about itself, since Sets/categories can contain other Sets/ Categories. Greg Cantor first

Re: Bayes Destroyed?

2009-08-27 Thread Brent Meeker
marc.geddes wrote: That which can be destroyed by the truth should be. -- P.C. Hodgell Today, among logicians, Bayesian Inference seems to be the new dogma for all encompassing theory of rationality. But I have different ideas, so I'm going to present an argument suggesting an