Phil Henshaw wrote:
> What do you
> think the amazing shape of the Bush approval curve means, about the
> complex system events of American politics?
> http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=74 I rate this as very high
> quality data on a very real but unnoticed large scale complex system
> behavior
Phil Henshaw wrote:
> Honestly Marcus, your ethics seem no better than your sense of modeling.
> Just because we're in what the Chinese call 'interesting times' doesn't
> mean that abusing people is either OK or useful.
At the end of a long work day, I'll indulge myself. Ok, I'm not a
pacifist an
Hi,
In the early 80's I appointed myself the Congressional
lobbyist for an environmental group. Uninvited I went door to door
in the office buildings of Representatives (obviously no one can
repeat that feat now). I was well received and although I only got an
occasional handshake from a
I can't believe anyone talks this way. With all due respect for the
offices and life and death issues sometimes involved, you need
responsive systems, not micro-managed decision makers. What you want
is for the people with the ultimate responsibility to be free to poke
their noses into the proc
Hi Phil,
> But on systems, you say this research institute idea will let people
> become nearly clairvoyant about how people will behave.
Um, you suggested a research institute, not me. I would see this kind
of project as largely modeling work to be done, with a strong focus on
skillful applied
Well, the money markets are special. They're intensely watched by the
world's most sophisticated manipulators. I don't think that makes a
good test bed for the starting phase of developing a wholly new
technology. Someone here is suggesting something more than standard
regression curves aren'
All,
So, today I resigned my tenure and as of 2007 will be living in Santa Fe as of Jan 1 2007. I still have to finish a semester's teaching and get out there, so I wont have a lot of energy to spare before I get out there, but I would like to start thinking about projects.
One project t
touche', As I recall I did throw in the 'non-linear', and maybe some
other stuff rather haphazardly. It was a sloppy way of saying that I
know you guys have keen insight into what complex systems are and what
they do and I really wish you'd try to define it as observation tools so
people can learn
Honestly Marcus, your ethics seem no better than your sense of modeling.
Just because we're in what the Chinese call 'interesting times' doesn't
mean that abusing people is either OK or useful. Where have you been
for the last two years? I myself am occasionally known for saying wild,
if strategic
Re: simulation and policy-making, a project that my group is working on at the request of the current Washington administration is helping to do just that. At the request of a consortium of representatives from the White House, Dept of Treasury, DHS, Dept. of State, and a few other cabinet-level p
Oh I thank RAND are probably plenty ambitious in what they simulate for the US govt. Just check out their research areas: http://www.rand.org/research_areas/Robert
On 8/8/06, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Quoting Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:> So if 'valid' simulations are being
Quoting Robert Holmes <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> So if 'valid' simulations are being used to give the 'wrong' answers, what
> does that tell us about simulation? Is there ever any hope of objectivity
> (I'll give away the answer to that: no) or do all social simulations -
> political or economic - in
Lately I have been doing simulations of wildfires. The program that I
have been using (Farsite) is based on first principles of fire physics.
Assuming that the inputs are correct (elevation, slope, aspect, fuel,
canopy, wind, temperature, humidity and a few others) I suspect the
estimate of the fi
** tomorrow**
TITLE: Attention Allocation in Organizational Decision-Making
SPEAKER: Douglas A. Samuelson
AFFILIATION: Homeland Security Institute
LOCATION: 624 Agua Fria Conference Room
TIME: Wed August 9, ** 2:00p ** (non-standard time)
ABSTRACT: Consider how to improve organizationa
Quoting Frank Wimberly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>:
> What about the following issue: I suspect that a simulation
> (agent-based or otherwise) of the "stock market" (e.g. the DJIA) could
> be developed which is statistically indistinguishable from the real
> thing. That is, the moments, fat tails, etc.
Here's a quote from a letter in this week's Economist about how to use big economic models:The root of many problems lies not in the [economic] models themselves but in the
way in which they are used. Too often we ask "What will happen?",
trapping us into the mug's game of prediction, when the real
Frank,PREDICTION (Co., Inc.) already has a number of stock market simulations which I believe they have found to be quite useful.;-}--DougOn 8/8/06,
Frank Wimberly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
What about the following issue: I suspect that a simulation(agent-based or otherwise) of the "stock market
What about the following issue: I suspect that a simulation
(agent-based or otherwise) of the "stock market" (e.g. the DJIA) could
be developed which is statistically indistinguishable from the real
thing. That is, the moments, fat tails, etc. would not serve to allow a
statistician to distinguis
The recent discussions on developing models for political analysis have
been very interesting. I fully expect that to persuade folks
(policymakers and business leaders) to part with their organization's
time and money will require demonstrable results. Demonstrating one
can build a model and
Jochen,
20/20 hindsight can only be turned into 20/20 foresight with simulation.
Yet, for some reason, I have repeatedly failed to convince policymakers
of this in numerous meetings.
I did an analysis for one of my MIT classes using strategy dynamics
(basically, a dumbed down version of system
How does any of that help me get a better photo of Britney's cellulite or write the accompanying story?RobertOn 8/7/06, Tom Johnson <
[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:Friends:My apologies for the cross-posts, but
For an upcoming presentation, I'm putting together a list of the 25 basic statistics every
Jochen Fromm wrote:
> Although it is therefore obvious that a blowback can happen
> in this case, it would perhaps interesting to find out the
> circumstances when it happens exactly
There unintended consequences in many things, but that doesn't mean
individuals or nations can be expected not to
If the USA delivers weapons and military knowledge to autonomous
parties in instable countries like Israel, Afghanistan and the
former Iraq and even trains people there to fight, it is of course
not surprising at all (perhaps even unavoidable) that eventually
these weapons will be used for an u
Whoa. Three buzzwords in a row: non-linearity, emergence and
complexity. You forgot non-equilibrium and edge of chaos.
How does this sound like: a revolutionary paradigm shift
towards a variety of non-linear, non-equilibrium patterns out
of the loop at the edge of chaos that are uniquely associ
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