Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Nick Thompson
Everybody, As usual, when we “citizens” ask mathematical questions, we throw in WAY too much surplus meaning. Thanks for all your fine-tuned efforts to straighten me out. Let’s take out all the colorful stuff and try again. Imagine a thousand computers, each generating a list

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Nick Thompson
Robert, I want to get back to you eventually concerning what kind of -duction we are talking about here. But before that< I want to clear up any other confusions I may have. Let's take your coin example; it's all my poor civilian brain can really handle. You are quite right that if

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Nick Thompson
O. Everything. Mathematical induction is a form of Deduction. Alas. N Nicholas S. Thompson Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology Clark University http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ From: Friam

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Robert Wall
Eric, (I am ending many sentences with prepositions; apologies.) Modern language usage manuals, for example,* Garner's Modern American Usage* [2009: 3rd Edition, page 654], advise that you no longer have to worry about ending a sentence with a preposition. As Winston Churchill once quipped when

[FRIAM] probability vs. statistics (was Re: Model of induction)

2016-12-12 Thread glen ☣
I have a large stash of nonsense I could write that might be on topic. But the topic coincides with an argument I had about 2 weeks ago. My opponent said something generalizing about the use of statistics and I made a comment (I thought was funny, but apparently not) that I don't really know

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Robert J. Cordingley
Hi Eric I was remembering that if you tossed a perfectly balanced coin and got 10 or 100 heads in a row it says absolutely nothing about the future coin tosses nor undermines the initial condition of a perfectly balanced coin. Bayesian or not the next head has a 50:50 probability of

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Eric Smith
Hi Robert, I worry about mixing technical and informal claims, and making it hard for people with different backgrounds to track which level the conversation is operating at. You said: > A long run is itself a data point and the premise in red (below) is false. and the premise in red (I am

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Steven A Smith
Eudamonic Pie anyone? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eudaemonic_Pie The eudaemonic pie - bookcover.jpg It seems that (some) roulette wheels (being imperfect, analog devices) can and have been predicted

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Frank Wimberly
Example of mathematical induction: Theorem: The sum of the first n integers is n(n+1)/2. Proof: If n=1, check. We assume 1+2+...m=m(m+1)/2 we need to show that if n=m+1 then 1+2+...+n = n(n+1)/2. But we know it's = m(m+1)/2 + n which is = (n-1)n/2 + n = (n^2 - n)/2 +n=n^2/2 -n/2 +n =n^2/2

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Roger Critchlow
Seems like the abduction step would be assuming that there are loaded wheels before you have any empirical evidence. A wheel could be fat-tailed, tending to longer runs, without being biased toward any particular numbers. There would be an incentive to bet on a run continuing, but no particular

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Frank Wimberly
Mathematical induction is a method for proving theorems. "Scientific induction" is a method for accumulating evidence to support one hypothesis or another; no proof involved, or possible. Frank Frank Wimberly Phone (505) 670-9918 On Dec 12, 2016 11:44 AM, "Owen Densmore"

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Owen Densmore
What's the difference between mathematical induction and scientific? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction -- Owen On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 10:44 AM, Robert J. Cordingley < rob...@cirrillian.com> wrote: > Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia - it looks like

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Eric Charles
I'll assume you meant something generic like: "*focus its play on those wheels with the longest runs [of unusual results, whatever form that might take]."* With that in mind, your test better work. If it doesn't, then casinos and players have wasted a lot of time worrying about loaded equipment.

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Robert J. Cordingley
Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia - it looks like abduction (AAA-2) to me - ie developing an educated guess as to which might be the winning wheel. Enough funds should find it with some degree of certainty but that may be a different question and should use different