Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-14 Thread Russell Standish
On Tue, Dec 13, 2016 at 08:41:12PM -0700, Nick Thompson wrote: > Hi, Russell S., > > It's a long time since the old days of the Three Russell's, isn't it? Where > have all the Russell's gone? Good to hear from you. > > This has been a humbling experience. My brother was a mathematician and

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-14 Thread Owen Densmore
Tuesday, December 13, 2016 7:59 PM > To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' < > friam@redfish.com> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction > > On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 02:45:11PM -0700, Nick Thompson wrote: > > > > > > Let’s take out

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-13 Thread Nick Thompson
, 2016 7:59 PM To: 'The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group' <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 02:45:11PM -0700, Nick Thompson wrote: > > > Let’s take out all the colorful stuff and try again. Imagine a thousand &g

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-13 Thread Russell Standish
On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 02:45:11PM -0700, Nick Thompson wrote: > > > Let’s take out all the colorful stuff and try again. Imagine a thousand > computers, each generating a list of random numbers. Now imagine that for > some small quantity of these computers, the numbers generated are in n a

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-13 Thread Marcus Daniels
Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction Domain Specific Random Number Generators? Kinda interesting idea. -- Owen FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's C

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-13 Thread Nick Thompson
nk.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Eric Charles Sent: Tuesday, December 13, 2016 6:50 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction Roger, this seems to g

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-13 Thread Eric Charles
gt;> >> Nicholas S. Thompson >> >> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology >> >> Clark University >> >> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ >> >> >> >> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Beh

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-13 Thread Roger Critchlow
y > *Sent:* Monday, December 12, 2016 12:06 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction > > > > Mathematical induction is a method for proving theorems. "Scientific > induction&qu

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Nick Thompson
son/naturaldesigns/> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/ From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Frank Wimberly Sent: Monday, December 12, 2016 12:06 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Nick Thompson
2016 3:21 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction Hi Eric I was remembering that if you tossed a perfectly balanced coin and got 10 or 100 heads in a row it says absolutely nothing about the future coin tosses nor und

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Nick Thompson
Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Owen Densmore Sent: Monday, December 12, 2016 11:45 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction What's the difference between mathematical induction and scientif

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Robert Wall
Eric, (I am ending many sentences with prepositions; apologies.) Modern language usage manuals, for example,* Garner's Modern American Usage* [2009: 3rd Edition, page 654], advise that you no longer have to worry about ending a sentence with a preposition. As Winston Churchill once quipped when

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Robert J. Cordingley
Hi Eric I was remembering that if you tossed a perfectly balanced coin and got 10 or 100 heads in a row it says absolutely nothing about the future coin tosses nor undermines the initial condition of a perfectly balanced coin. Bayesian or not the next head has a 50:50 probability of

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Eric Smith
Hi Robert, I worry about mixing technical and informal claims, and making it hard for people with different backgrounds to track which level the conversation is operating at. You said: > A long run is itself a data point and the premise in red (below) is false. and the premise in red (I am

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Steven A Smith
Eudamonic Pie anyone? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eudaemonic_Pie The eudaemonic pie - bookcover.jpg It seems that (some) roulette wheels (being imperfect, analog devices) can and have been predicted

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Frank Wimberly
Example of mathematical induction: Theorem: The sum of the first n integers is n(n+1)/2. Proof: If n=1, check. We assume 1+2+...m=m(m+1)/2 we need to show that if n=m+1 then 1+2+...+n = n(n+1)/2. But we know it's = m(m+1)/2 + n which is = (n-1)n/2 + n = (n^2 - n)/2 +n=n^2/2 -n/2 +n =n^2/2

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Roger Critchlow
Seems like the abduction step would be assuming that there are loaded wheels before you have any empirical evidence. A wheel could be fat-tailed, tending to longer runs, without being biased toward any particular numbers. There would be an incentive to bet on a run continuing, but no particular

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Frank Wimberly
Mathematical induction is a method for proving theorems. "Scientific induction" is a method for accumulating evidence to support one hypothesis or another; no proof involved, or possible. Frank Frank Wimberly Phone (505) 670-9918 On Dec 12, 2016 11:44 AM, "Owen Densmore"

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Owen Densmore
What's the difference between mathematical induction and scientific? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_induction -- Owen On Mon, Dec 12, 2016 at 10:44 AM, Robert J. Cordingley < rob...@cirrillian.com> wrote: > Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia - it looks like

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Eric Charles
I'll assume you meant something generic like: "*focus its play on those wheels with the longest runs [of unusual results, whatever form that might take]."* With that in mind, your test better work. If it doesn't, then casinos and players have wasted a lot of time worrying about loaded equipment.

Re: [FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-12 Thread Robert J. Cordingley
Based on https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/peirce/#dia - it looks like abduction (AAA-2) to me - ie developing an educated guess as to which might be the winning wheel. Enough funds should find it with some degree of certainty but that may be a different question and should use different

[FRIAM] Model of induction

2016-12-11 Thread Nick Thompson
Dear Wise Persons, Would the following work? Imagine you enter a casino that has a thousand roulette tables. The rumor circulates around the casino that one of the wheels is loaded. So, you call up a thousand of your friends and you all work together to find the loaded wheel. Why,