Re: [prag] Re: [geo] Recording of HPAC meeting with Anton Keskinen, Arctic Momentum Conference

Really important issues being touched on here.  I've been otherwise occupied in recent days but plan to watch the recording shortly and offer some further thoughts then.  I sense we're getting to the core of why decisive and effective action is so challenging.  I don't think it's impossible,

Re: [prag] Re: [geo] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime?

on the wrong data. Regards Robert On 11/04/2023 17:31, Douglas MacMartin wrote: Robert, I agree with almost everything you write, except for your belief that what you wrote is in any way in conflict with what I wrote. doug *From:* Robert Chris *Sent:* Tuesday, April 11, 2023 3:17 AM

Re: [prag] Re: [geo] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime?

; Robert Chris *Cc:* healthy-planet-action-coalit...@googlegroups.com; Planetary Restoration ; 'Eelco Rohling' via NOAC Meetings ; geoengineering *Subject:* Re: [prag] Re: [geo] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime? Well, in that the climate depends

Re: [prag] Re: [geo] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime?

Robert On 10/04/2023 07:42, rob...@rtulip.net wrote: Robert Chris and other readers, On neoliberalism, its homo economicus assumptions can only work effectively under well designed state regulation to deliver rule of law.  It is possible to change the law to incentivise action on planetary

Re: [prag] Re: [geo] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime?

. Regards Robert On 09/04/2023 20:32, rob...@rtulip.net wrote: It may be possible for the current Western neoliberal neoclassical worldview to adapt to the need for climate stability. *From:*planetary-restorat...@googlegroups.com *On Behalf Of *Robert Chris *Sent:* Sunday, April 9, 2023 12:13 AM

Re: Fwd: [prag] Re: [geo] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime?

of 2 C on them would be unbearable. So, I'd say economics played a goal there--indeed, even the primary rationale for the choice. Mike On 4/8/23 9:54 AM, Robert Chris wrote: > David, you've put your finger right on it.  Being economically > realistic is not a sufficient condition to

Re: [prag] Re: [geo] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime?

, Brian von Herzen *Subject:* *[HCA-list] Re: [prag] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime?* Thanks, Ron, … Best regards, Doug Sent from my iPhone (audio texting) On Apr 8, 2023, at 10:13 AM, Robert Chris wrote:  Herb, thanks for the further

Re: [prag] Re: [geo] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime?

David, you've put your finger right on it.  Being economically realistic is not a sufficient condition to enable the realisation of any goal.  For some goals, it isn't even a constraint because for them, what is economically realistic is made to fit the goal, rather than the goal being

Re: [prag] Re: [geo] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime?

@herbsimmens On Apr 8, 2023, at 9:13 AM, David desJardins wrote:  On Sat, Apr 8, 2023 at 4:59 AM Robert Chris wrote: David, no matter what the goal may be, it is always economically realistic. So long as global warming is mediated through an economic lens, the likelihood

Re: [prag] Re: [geo] Are 1.5 c or 2.0 c thresholds economically realistic in a voluntary NDC regime?

David, no matter what the goal may be, it is always economically realistic.  The global economy just found $trillions from nowhere to respond to COVID-19.  The British didn't ask their economists whether it made sense to go to war with Germany in 1914 and 1939. The US didn't put an economist's

[geo] Re: Temperature trajectory

Lister wrote: The BBC did a good radio drama on it called Smoking Guns. It is available on BBC Sounds. Regards, Kevin On Sun, 19 Mar 2023, 21:19 Robert Chris, wrote: Hi Tom I'm just beginning to engage in this thread that's been running for a few days now. Do you have evidence

[geo] Re: Temperature trajectory

Hi Tom I'm just beginning to engage in this thread that's been running for a few days now. Do you have evidence or can you refer to credible sources that corroborate the statements you made below.  The point I'm trying to get hold of is not whether there's political bias in the IPCC's work,

[geo] Re: [prag] Re: UNEP 2/28/2023 Report on SRM

I have commented on this report previously.  In the summary Q for which the link is given below, the following extract is key: *Does UNEP think we have lost the battle to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving the climate crisis?* *AH:* Not at all. First, the scientific

[geo] Re: [CDR] RE: A Climate Model: Net Zero Heating

, cools the planet directly and faster by reducing the amount of heat generated by insolation. Regards Robert On 17/03/2023 16:41, Douglas Grandt wrote: Paul, Perplexed, I searched my emails for LWR and SWR, which revealed only this: Begin forwarded message: *From: *Robert Chris *Date

[geo] Re: [CDR] RE: A Climate Model: Net Zero Heating

Hi Dan The central point is not whether IPCC ARs 1-6 have discussed the current state of the albedo enhancement (AE/SRM) literature but rather that they have failed to address the emerging (some would say long since emerged) evidence indicating that a LWR only policy will not deliver the

[geo] Re: [prag] [HCA-list] Make Sunsets stimulates more debate over "Geoengineering"- PT Barnum further vindicated!

= ♾️ Doug Sent from my iPhone (audio texting) On Feb 27, 2023, at 8:22 AM, Robert Chris wrote:  Doug and Ron Here's how I arrived at my conclusions. From the extracts below, I conclude, given that by 2020 (or thereabouts) we had already doubled atmospheric GHGs from pre-industrial including non

[geo] Re: [prag] [HCA-list] Make Sunsets stimulates more debate over "Geoengineering"- PT Barnum further vindicated!

nately, I have not had the time (and probably not the background) to go through the entire paper and understand it well! Best, Ron On Sun, Feb 26, 2023 at 7:09 PM Ron Baiman wrote: Thanks for the correction Robert! Sent from my iPhone On Feb

[geo] Re: [prag] [HCA-list] Make Sunsets stimulates more debate over "Geoengineering"- PT Barnum further vindicated!

through the entire paper and understand it well! Best, Ron On Sun, Feb 26, 2023 at 7:09 PM Ron Baiman wrote: Thanks for the correction Robert! Sent from my iPhone On Feb 26, 2023, at 6:41 PM, Robert Chris wrote:  Ron

[geo] Re: [prag] Re: [HCA-list] Make Sunsets stimulates more debate over "Geoengineering"- PT Barnum further vindicated!

Ron Hansen et al say that the 10degC is based on 'today's GHG level' and that it has an e-folding time of 100 years.  That implies 6.3degC by 2120 and a bit less by 2100. Regards Robert On 26/02/2023 23:43, Ron Baiman wrote: Jim Hansen et al (https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474 ) believe

[geo] Re: [prag] Fwd: [New Report] Near-term Climate Risk and Intervention: A Roadmap for Research, U.S. Research Investment and International Scientific Cooperation

Hi Daniel Thanks for noting this report . It contains the following: *Limiting heating to 1.5°C is still physically possible.* It will require deep and sustained emissions reductions, with immediate action needed to

[geo] Re: [CDR] GE: Hearts and Minds - Why did the Saami Council oppose Harvard’s SCoPEx experiment?

Clive, you open up a challenging question - how to effect the changes necessary to sort out global warming.  You note that 'heavily coerced change' as illustrated by Communist countries hasn't worked out well.  The (logically unsound) implication is that because Communism didn't work out well,

Re: [geo] Re: [CDR] Climate Security Timeline

, highly unpredictable and generally far from benign. Please note that I have removed the CDR Google Group from this reply. Regards Robert On 05/06/2022 10:25, Robert Tulip wrote: Reply to Robert Chris Dear Robert, Thanks for these comments.  On the thread status, I felt Dan Galpern

Re: [geo] Re: [CDR] Climate Security Timeline

ight upset the moderators as being a bit off-topic.  (NB: Experience has painfully taught me that even between Anglophone communities there is wide cultural semantic diversity. Accordingly, to avoid any possible misunderstanding, I feel obliged to issue a weaselly 'irony alert'.) Robert Chris O

[geo] Re: [CDR] Climate Security Timeline

of it is. Robert Chris On 31/05/2022 02:55, Robert Tulip wrote: To Robert Chris H Robert, I don’t agree with your comment that the need to manage albedo “has only been because of the fossil fuel industry blocking progress on transitioning to renewables.” Transition to renewable energy

[geo] Current and potential commercial uses for CO2

I am trying to get hold of data on the current annual global commercial market in tonnes (across all sectors) for carbon dioxide. It would be nice to have some historical data, and even a breakdown by sectors of both source and utilization, and geography, as well as projections into the

[geo] Systems Thinking for Geoengineering Policy

the book here - https://tfstore.kortext.com/systems-thinking-for-geoengineering-policy-126166 . Here’s what others have said about it: *"Robert Chris convincingly describes the limitations of reductionist thinking when facing the complex challenge of developing appropriate policy for geoengine

Re: [geo] Digest for geoengineering@googlegroups.com - 2 updates in 2 topics

Andrew Quite a few of the links in the news review don't work. Regards Robert Dr. Robert Chris Visiting Fellow Department of Geography The Open University Milton Keynes MK7 6AA robert.ch...@open.ac.uk<mailto:robert.ch...@open.ac.uk> +44 (0) 7976 262808 Skype: rgchris Hangouts!: rob

Re: [geo] Re: CO2 capture may be our only option for stabilising temperatures - we need to find out the costs, fast | Oxford Martin School

. Regards Robert Dr. Robert Chris Visiting Fellow Department of Geography The Open University Milton Keynes MK7 6AA robert.ch...@open.ac.uk<mailto:robert.ch...@open.ac.uk> +44 (0) 7976 262808 Skype: rgchris Hangouts!: robertgch...@gmail.com <https://ouca.open.ac.uk/owa/redir.

[geo] Re: CO2 capture may be our only option for stabilising temperatures - we need to find out the costs, fast | Oxford Martin School

. What is to happen in earnest within 20 years will be based on ideas already in circulation. We must make the most of what we’ve got now. Robert Chris On Saturday, 19 November 2016 14:49:27 UTC, Andrew Lockley wrote: > > http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/opinion/view/346 > > CO2

Re: [geo] CO2 capture may be our only option for stabilising temperatures - we need to find out the costs, fast | Oxford Martin School

On Sunday, 20 November 2016 19:56:37 UTC, n.shah wrote: > > Dear Olaf, > > > > Although I can see where you are coming from, I have to disagree with one > statement. The CO2 that is in flue gas **is** different from that in the > atmosphere in terms of what needs to be done to capture it and

[geo] Re: Negative Emissions: Arrows in the Quiver, Life Preserver, and/or Moral Hazard?

an academic paper or lab experiment to full scale deployment in a single leap. Robert Chris On Saturday, 12 November 2016 00:54:25 UTC, Greg Rau wrote: > > > > > http://science.sciencemag.org/content/354/6313/714.1 > > GR: Disclaimer - I was a co-signer. > -- You received

[geo] System thinking for geoengineering policy

y said: *"Robert Chris convincingly describes the limitations of reductionist thinking when facing the complex challenge of developing appropriate policy for geoengineering research. By charting a way for geoengineering research policy that appreciates the features of complex adaptive sys

[geo] Re: A temporary, moderate, and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering, Keith and MacMartin

This paper is dated Feb 2014. Is it peer reviewed? Was it published and if so where? A quick Google Scholar search throws up nothing. Robert Chris On Saturday, 10 January 2015 00:23:21 UTC, andrewjlockley wrote: (Attached) A temporary, moderate, and responsive scenario for solar

[geo] Re: Response to Svoboda and Irvine, J Reynolds

, without being reckless, to advance our empirical knowledge in the service of those future generations. We need to get on and do them. Robert Chris Visiting Fellow Department of Political and International Studies Open University UK robert.ch...@open.ac.uk On Tuesday, 12 August 2014 18:20:40 UTC

[geo] Re: Panel, not keynote: 1. What are the important tractable research problems in solar geoengineering? (Help me prepare for CEC14)

as the child grows and acquires new skills along the way; and there is always the option to quit the pool altogether at any stage and head for the racetrack or the velodrome if the evidence suggests that that the pool is not going to be a source of joy. Robert Chris Visiting Fellow POLIS

[geo] Re: Oz and the London Convention

Having just last week submitted my doctoral thesis, I now have some space to focus on other things. This proposed amendment raises all manner of difficulties associated with trying to regulate an ill-defined activity in an ill-defined context for ill-defined purposes. There are problems of

[geo] Reconciling TOPEX/Poseidon sea level data

conference in Moscow, a British member of the IPCC delegation admitted in public the reason for this new calibration: ‘We had to do so, otherwise there would be no trend.’ (http://iceagenow.info/2011/12/satellite-sea-level-data-tilted-distort-figures-sea-level-expert/) Robert Chris The Open

[geo] Lindzen presents skeptics' case to UK House of Commons

as those implied by decarbonising the global economy or geoengineering. The downward trend in interest in climate change amongst the lay public suggests that the skeptics are winning the political argument. What is to be the response? Robert Chris -- You received this message because you

[geo] Re: Non-linearity of climate sensitivity (response to David Appell on Romans)

Just to take Ken's Roman saver one stage further - if he'd put $1 on deposit at 1.65% he would own the entire assets of the world valued in 2000 at $163trillion (Davies et al The Economic Journal, 121 (March), 223–254. Doi: 10./j.1468-0297.2010.02391.x. 2010). Whereas if he'd invested at

[geo] Re: Millennial economic timescales

There are no doubt plenty of economists out there but the question is whether there are any brave enough to enter this ring. Cost benefit analysis (CBA), the economist's tool of choice, requires two inputs - cash flows and a discount factor, or if you're really clever, multiple discount factors.

[geo] Re: Non-linearity of climate sensitivity

models do not specify how the climate sensitivity varies as conditions change. These variations are internally generated based on the fundamental physics that is in the models. Tom ++ On 2/21/2012 8:35 AM, Robert Chris wrote: Ken Thanks

[geo] Re: Non-linearity of climate sensitivity

started out with. From a policy perspective, this distinction between changing climate and a changed climate is of little interest, because the prescription is the same in both cases:  *Stop using the atmosphere as a waste dump. * On Wed, Feb 22, 2012 at 3:30 AM, Robert Chris r.g.ch

[geo] Re: Non-linearity of climate sensitivity

accurate valuation of CS and it is about 10degC, what policy implications might that have for the timing of geoengineering deployments? Robert Chris On Feb 20, 9:48 pm, Ken Caldeira kcalde...@carnegie.stanford.edu wrote: The attached papers are relevant. On Mon, Feb 20, 2012 at 11:32 AM, David

[geo] Non-linearity of climate sensitivity

significant in terms of reducing the GWP of CO2. - Robert Chris The Open University r.g.ch...@open.ac.uk -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups geoengineering group. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com

[geo] Re: GE: Bad medicine?

. Robert Chris On Nov 1, 11:37 pm, Rau, Greg r...@llnl.gov wrote: “Who will decide there is a need, that climate engineering is an “appropriate medicine”? The conditions for making such a technological wager legitimate, democratic, and equitable must be explicit. For we are naive to assume

[geo] Re: Did anybody catch BBC TV (UK) Newsnight at 23:03 on 16 June 2011?

. As far as Lima is concerned, don't lose sight of the follow on session dealing with the role of economics, cost benefit analysis and ethics in climate change policy making. There are some critical issues in there too. Robert Chris Open University r.g.ch...@open.ac.uk On Jun 18, 11:45 am, M V

[geo] Re: Did anybody catch BBC TV (UK) Newsnight at 23:03 on 16 June 2011?

a studio introduction to geoengineeering and mention of the upcoming IPCC meeting in Lima. Your segment starts at 31mins 20secs. Well done. Robert Chris Open University r.g.ch...@open.ac.uk On Jun 17, 5:37 am, Ken Caldeira kcalde...@carnegie.stanford.edu wrote: I was on BBC TV (UK) Newsnight at 23

[geo] Re: NYT Geo opinion

from our world that will have been lost. Robert Chris On Jun 12, 5:57 pm, Rau, Greg r...@llnl.gov wrote: NY Times June 10, 2011 Geo-Engineering Can Help Save the Planet By THOMAS E. LOVEJOY Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are pushing 400 parts per million (p.p.m.) — up from