I believe these odds are incorrect, and actually see examples of this
regularly from a guy who is definitely NOT a sandbagger. Inconsistent
yes, bagger no way.
My Friday State Amateur group has a 5, an 8, a 10 and a 12 handicap
player. We all post every score and putt everything out both in
competition rounds and in our "weekend" groups.
Our 12 handicap player can shoot 76 on any given day - and does so
several times a year in our Friday amateur tournaments. His regular
round is in the mid 80s, but it's generally caused by three or four
"others" in a round as opposed to playing bogey golf. As a 12, he can
post a "7" for handicap purposes. If he has three of these in a round
on par 4s that's 9 over already. Bogey 3 holes, make no birdies, and
par the rest and he's 12 over in his ESC posting. Take these three big
holes away in a "good" round - turn all of them into bogeys - and he's
shooting 79...
A couple of good rounds in the high 70s does not drop his handicap more
than a fraction of a point, and 10 rounds that follow in the mid 80s
keeps him at a 12.
The USGA is full of engineers who love to post statistics, but
individuals can bugger up statistics every day.
-Tim
On Aug 6, 2009, at 12:14 PM, Sean Weijand wrote:
The odds of shooting substantially below your handicap.
http://www.usga.org/handicapping/articles_resources/Odds-of-Shooting-
an-Exceptional-Tournament-Score/
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