On Thu, Jun 7, 2012 at 10:27 PM, Udhay Shankar N <ud...@pobox.com> wrote: > This is one of my hotbuttons. I know several people who have made > significant amounts of money, and have convinced themselves it was > because they are smart. (They *are* smart, it's just that correlation > doesn't equal causation) >
It's also the theory that Taleb spews, no? As insufferable as he is, that's the one place I agree entirely; much about success of any kind depends on luck. You just have to be in a situation that maximizes your chances of being lucky. In a way it rains cats, dogs and occasionally gold coins, so the way to get gold is to be out there avoiding the cats and dogs and looking for the gold, not sitting in a cave wondering why people should want to get thulped by a falling animal.
