> I think the main point of Taleb about limiting impact of worst-case. > He never said anything about not playing at all, to my best knowledge.
No, that was a segue :) My bad. His point (not his main one) was that success was largely based on luck. My point is that it means you try to maximise your opportunities, Taleb actually says there are two ways - one is to get into a skill which has a near-definite chance of success, like being a super speciality doctor, and the other is to ensure you don't die from bad luck and that you profit most from the good variety. > His first point is that worst-case is much more frequent than your models say. True, the "fat tail" concept. Or that the turkey gets better and better food until Thanksgiving etc.
