On Thu, Jun 07, 2012 at 10:57:50PM +0530, Deepak Shenoy wrote: > It's also the theory that Taleb spews, no? As insufferable as he is, > that's the one place I agree entirely; much about success of any kind > depends on luck. You just have to be in a situation that maximizes > your chances of being lucky. In a way it rains cats, dogs and > occasionally gold coins, so the way to get gold is to be out there > avoiding the cats and dogs and looking for the gold, not sitting in a > cave wondering why people should want to get thulped by a falling > animal.
I think the main point of Taleb about limiting impact of worst-case. He never said anything about not playing at all, to my best knowledge. His first point is that worst-case is much more frequent than your models say.
