if the subject of luck interest you, you might want to look at some of the research of the excellent richard wiseman.
http://www.richardwiseman.com/research/psychologyluck.html http://www.richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf On Jun 7, 2012, at 10:33 AM, Eugen Leitl wrote: > On Thu, Jun 07, 2012 at 10:57:50PM +0530, Deepak Shenoy wrote: > >> It's also the theory that Taleb spews, no? As insufferable as he is, >> that's the one place I agree entirely; much about success of any kind >> depends on luck. You just have to be in a situation that maximizes >> your chances of being lucky. In a way it rains cats, dogs and >> occasionally gold coins, so the way to get gold is to be out there >> avoiding the cats and dogs and looking for the gold, not sitting in a >> cave wondering why people should want to get thulped by a falling >> animal. > > I think the main point of Taleb about limiting impact of worst-case. > He never said anything about not playing at all, to my best knowledge. > > His first point is that worst-case is much more frequent than your models say. >
