Ok, I know believe that Switching is the strategy. Here is the reason :
1. You choose one door (p = 1/3) 2. An empty door is opened. And here is the interesting fact : If you don't switch : the fact that the other door is opened doesn't change any thing and you still a p = 1/3. Now, if you switch : there are 2 cases : - If the car is indeed behind your door, the fact that the other is opened doesn't change anything and you still have a p = 1/3 - If the car is not behind your door, this means that the other door was opened because there was no other possibility to open an empty door. So this means the p now equals 2/3. This is not very clear yet in my head, but I believe that Switching is the dominant strategy. 2005/12/25, Pedro <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > ?? > > Pedro > > "Chris Sz..." <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> escreveu: > In case you still don't believe us - try it for yourself! > http://tinyurl.com/9rmy2 > > --Chris > Merry X-mas! > > --- In [email protected], Pedro <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > wrote: > > > > Yeah, most of you are right. The chance of winning is 2/3 if you > switch the door. It looks strange at first, but it's not. See: > > > > On your firts choice, you have 1/3 of chance of winning, and 2/3 > of losing. The host *just* can open an empty door. So, suppose you > choose door A or 1. Each door has 1/3 of chance of containing the > prize. So, your door has 1/3, and the other 2, together, have 2/3 of > chance. So, if the host opens an empty door, the 2/3 probability is > now on the other door (the one you didn't choose.) So, you'll win more > times if you switch the door. Pay atention, you will *NOT ALWAYS WIN*. > You'll just win more times than if you continue with your first choice. > > > > Pedro > > > > > > > > > > > SPONSORED LINKS > Jigsaw puzzle game Free puzzle inlay games Educational game and > puzzle Word puzzle game Kid puzzle game Puzzle games > > --------------------------------- > YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS > > > Visit your group "speedsolvingrubikscube" on the web. > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. > > > --------------------------------- > > > > > > > --------------------------------- > Yahoo! doce lar. Faça do Yahoo! sua homepage. > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
