This doesn't make the argument wrong. Yes, you can gain some knowledge this way and be more sure that changing would be better. But it doesn't make you win more often when changing. The probability for that stays at 2/3.
I knew a similar case as yours, but here's a really extreme one: After you pick your first door, the host opens *all* three doors and let's you stay or change. Even with this 100% knowledge (because you see the car), changing is successful exactly 2/3 of the time, namely in those cases where you were initially wrong. Cheers! Stefan --- In [email protected], Rune Wesström <rune. [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > A lot of intuition! > You guess on door #1. The host is staying in front of door #3. Door #2 is 2 meters away from him, nevertheless he opens that door. What would you expect to find behind door #3? A goat?! (Let us exclude double-crossing!). > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Stefan Pochmann" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: <[email protected]> > Sent: Wednesday, December 28, 2005 3:47 PM > Subject: [Speed cubing group] Re: (Off topic)3 doors... > > > Changing wins if and only if you initially chose the wrong door, i. e. > two times of three. > > Can you explain why your suggestion makes this wrong? > > Cheers! > Stefan > > --- In [email protected], Rune Wesström <rune. > [EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > In real life the host is Not staying totally symmetrically in > relation to the doors. (He is right-handed Or left-handed. Maybe he > has to take a halfstep to open a certain door etc.). If he now opens > the "easiest" door, Not changing wins more often than one time of > three. If he opens the other door, changing will win more often than > two times of three. > > > > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
