Hi Bob, You switched half the time, and won about half the games.
Wasn't that supposed to be false? Wow! Who woulda thunk it! Thanks, David J --- In [email protected], "Bob Burton" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > I did 100 trials, swithing my choice for 50 and keeping my choice for > the other 50. > > The results: > > When keeping choice: 16/50 wins => 32% > When changing choice: 32/50 wins => 64% > Overall total: 48/100 wins => 48% > Conclusion: You are twice as likely to win if you change your choice. > > There was obviously a clear distinction between keeping my choice and > changing it. > > I used this to play: > http://people.hofstra.edu/staff/steven_r_costenoble/MontyHall/MontyHallSim.html > > Think of it this way: > > When you are shown one of the empty doors, your chances of winning by > keeping your original choice is still 1/3, not 1/2. The door shown to > you was not chosen at random. > > ~ Bob > > --- In [email protected], "d_j_salvia" > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > Hi Duncan and Stefan and Pedro and Evan, > > > > Sorry, you guys, but you aren't correct. > > > > In probability there's a thing called the law of large numbers. If you > > generate a long enough string of numbers "randomly" that eventually > > you would have every digit the same number of times. N oparticular > > number is favored. Your answer relies upon this law of randomness. > > > > What is actually wrong with the standard answere you gave is that one > > is not dealing with a large number of choices, and, as such, odds *do > > not apply.* > > > > I went to a site with the software and made my choice and did not > > switch and I won. Doing it more than once is outside the boundaries of > > the game. > > > > Cheers, > > > > David J > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "Duncan Dicks" > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > I Had a freind who wouldnt believe this no matter how often I > > explained the > > > maths to him so he set up spreadsheet to test it out. Very easy to > > do and > > > confirmed what the maths tells you - you should switch! > > > > > > Duncan > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "aznseashell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > > > To: <[email protected]> > > > Sent: Sunday, December 25, 2005 7:04 AM > > > Subject: [Speed cubing group] Re: (Off topic)3 doors... > > > > > > > > > Haven't we had this dicussion before? Or was it in another cubing > group? > > > > > > The game is set up so that if you switch, a winning choice would > > > become a losing choice and vice versa. In the beginning you had a 1/3 > > > chance of winning and 2/3 chance of losing. Staying with your choice > > > doesn't change your odds of winning (the host will always be able to > > > show you a door with nothing behind it no matter which door you > > > picked), but switching will turn your probabability of winning to 2/3. > > > > > > If my explanation makes no sense, consider the situation with 100 > > > doors and one door with a prize. You pick a door, and the host shows > > > you 98 doors with nothing behind them. Now it's much more obvious that > > > you should switch, right? > > > > > > Shelley > > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], "richy_jr_2000" > > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > It is counter intuitive, but if you are in this situation, your > > > > chances would be better to switch to the other door. It's actually > > > > quite interesting. > > > > > > > > -Richard > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected], Pedro > > > > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > > Ok, this is off topic, but is interesting... > > > > > > > > > > (please forgive if I make some mistake on the english...) > > > > > Suppose you are at a TV show, where you have 3 doors. 1 of the > > > > doors has a car, and the other 2 don't have anything. So, the show > > > > presenter asks you to choose a door. So, you choose, but he doesn't > > > > open your choosen door. He opens an empty door. Then, he makes a > > > > question: do you want to continue with your first choice or > change to > > > > the other door? > > > > > > > > > > What do you do? > > > > > What situation gives you more chances of winning? > > > > > > > > > > Think about it... > > > > > > > > > > Pedro > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > --------------------------------- > > > > > Yahoo! doce lar. Faça do Yahoo! sua homepage. > > > > > > > > > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. Make Yahoo! your home page http://us.click.yahoo.com/dpRU5A/wUILAA/yQLSAA/MXMplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/speedsolvingrubikscube/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
