I haven't been able to finish it, but in the past I was able to predict a school's passage rate on the thrid grade tests by assuming that a certain percentage of those on Free or Reduced Lunch pass, and a certain percentage of those not on that program pass. If I remember correctly, it was something like 40% of those on F&RL and 80% of those not. This simple formula predicted a school's passing percentage within about 5 points with a 95% confidence level.
I have not checked to see if that still holds -- that some formula can be used to predict a school's performance. I have the data, it's just a lot of work. But it shows just what we're up agains that something like that even comes close. I do think this analysis is important in that it highlights the "achievement gap", and does it in a race-neutral way. In addition, schools that consistantly do better than predicted, or worse, need to be highlighted -- not just for absotlute numbers, but how they break out of the "programmed" level of performance. Sadly, politics and saying that we "suck" is about all that ever happens. Real analysis to figure out what works would never make the headlines. That, my friends, is what sucks. Erik Hare [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://home.comcast.net/~wabbitoid/ Irvine Park, West End, Saint Paul, Minnesota, USA, North America, Earth Fine Amish furniture, cedar chests, and crafts http://www.harmonycedar.com _____________________________________________ NEW ADDRESS FOR LIST: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To subscribe, modify subscription, or get your password - visit: http://www.mnforum.org/mailman/listinfo/stpaul Archive Address: http://www.mnforum.org/mailman/private/stpaul/
