I'd just like to add a couple of thoughts/observations to what has
already been said about this.
I've been using a SunRay at home via the Sun CXO facility, which is a
prototype desktop grid and is part of Sun's Sun Grid project. I have to
say this facility is extremely reliable. About a year ago, I ran a small
experiment where I attempted to use this remote desktop as my only
computing device for an entire month. I do development, use business
apps, email, Web browsing primarily, and in that context my experiment
was a success: I was able to continue working productively on the remote
desktop, and did not miss a local desktop or even a laptop during this
time.
At the same time, several trends already mentioned in this thread bring
up issues that might have averted some ISPs from pursuing a
desktop-as-a-service idea for now. The first trend is that folks
increasingly use their computers as a communication device. For
instance, what put an end to my exclusive remote desktop use was our
team's adoption of Skype as a primarily communication tool. I couldn't
get Skype to work on the Sun Ray (even by accessing a Windows desktop),
and that necessitated switching back to my Linux laptop as the primarily
work tool. Video conferencing and VOIP communication are increasingly
common uses of PCs, even in the small-business segment.
The second trend mentioned here was the convergence of multimedia and
traditional desktop computers. I think that trend is going to lead to
some desktop environments increasingly becoming multimedia-rich with
video, etc. I'd even go as far as to suggest that a desktop environment
is already but one type of multimedia application that will only
incorporate more interactive and media-rich features.
The third trend mentioned was the need for a desktop to interact with an
increasingly "smart" environment of home audio/video, digital cameras,
etc. Consumers really demand seamless integration between their
electronic devices, and a desktop might increasingly be viewed as a
"dashboard" to a digital home/office environment.
Several of the potential target audiences for a zero-admin, always-on
remote desktop are also the key drivers of these trends. My 83-old
grandfather is a great illustration of that: He would certainly welcome
an administration- and viruses-free desktop that would just always work.
But he uses his computer primarily to communicate with a distributed
family using Skype, to share, print and edit family photos, and to play
chess. He doesn't like email much, because it's hard for him to read and
type, so he prefers voice. That might be a common attribute of the
elderly, which I initially thought would a great target for a remote Sun
Ray desktop.
I think the small-business segment also shares some of these
requirements, since voice and multimedia and device access play
important roles in that segment, too. (My company serves mostly the SMB
market.) One area is online training that often involves multimedia, and
SMBs increasingly turn to online training to keep competitive.
I agree with earlier comments that smaller companies could introduce
innovative solutions to these problems, and thereby cater to these
trends. The Sun Ray could be an important component of such a solution,
but I think a provider would have to extend the current Sun Ray software
(and maybe even hardware) to come up with the right product and service.
For instance, I could see a Sun Ray that's marketed as a telephone
service (via Skype or some other VOIP solution) and that an also access
a remote desktop. I wonder to what extent would Sun be open to licensing
this technology to vendors interested in offering such solutions.
A large ISP would most likely require a mass market to make a desktop
service viable. And I think this kind of thing might spread more by
word-of-mouth and by user demand, than by a large company rolling out a
massive service offering to millions of potential customers. Again, a
small innovative firm can have a advantage from a cost perspective, but
they would need to have the ability to tailor the Sun Ray to the
consumer market.
My opinion on a centrally-managed, consumer-oriented Sun Ray service
is that one would need to be very careful to target the right
consumer group.
I totally agree. I can also imagine that there are consumers who want
both.
In order to get to this point however you need consumer prices say $50
for a Sunray and fast scalability of the servers.
I agree with this as well. A hybrid environment for consumers would be
very beneficial for many households. I think your price point is right,
but I have not yet decided whether this service could be operated
profitably.
I think the right order to get to the consumer would be:
SME businesses
SME businesses working at home
Selected consumer groups.
Broader consumer availability.
I estimate the whole process will take 10 years at the rate we are
going now.
I think your order is right on target. Regarding the timing, I would
encourage you to check out _The Innovator's Dilemma_, by Clayton
Christensen. I think the Sun Rays would qualify as a disruptive
technology.
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