On Mon, Dec 8, 2008 at 11:20 PM, PGage <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> On Mon, Dec 8, 2008 at 10:43 PM, Tom Wolper <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>> Ratings expectations are vastly different for prime time and late
>> night. Leno's been getting 3.5-4 million viewers a night and that's
>> fatal in prime time. Leno competes well against Letterman and
>> Nightline, but that's not the same as competing against CSI:Miami.
>
> Enemy gets around 4.2 million at 10:00 on Mondays, so Leno is already
> coming close to that at 11:35. From what I can tell NBC is averaging
> around 7 million at the 10:00 hour M-F. Can Leno average 5.25 mil for
> the week? If a 10:00 Leno program costs less than 2/3 of a one hour
> drama, and gets 3/4 of the ratings, it seems like NBC will be ahead.

Looks like AB also thinks this is a good idea:
http://blogs.kansascity.com/tvbarn/2008/12/leno-at-9-this.html, citing
most of the same reasons I have. He gives a quick and dirty
calculation that suggests Leno would get around 5.2 million (based on
HUT levels) even without factoring in better lead ins from the 9:00
NBC shows. He does not give what I now am looking for, which is the
average cost of a prime time Leno compared to the average cost of a
prime time drama.

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