Data posted by AB today lead to the conclusion that NBC is averaging 7.5 million viewers at the 10:00 hour (I had guestemated 7 million last night). Leno would have to average around 5.5 million (5.64 actually) to get to 75% of the current 10:00 pm viewership. I think that is reasonable (remember, AB estimated that Leno would get 5.2 million if he duplicates his percentage of HUT at 10:00 that he gets at 11:35). AB thinks Leno will out perform current 10:00 shows on Monday and Friday, and probably Thursday (compared not to ER, now on its last legs, but to what he expects its replacement to do). He also thinks Leno might do 10 Million on Thursdays during sweeps, with a 30 Rock growing as a lead-in.
On Tue, Dec 9, 2008 at 12:16 AM, PGage <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > On Mon, Dec 8, 2008 at 11:20 PM, PGage <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> On Mon, Dec 8, 2008 at 10:43 PM, Tom Wolper <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>> Ratings expectations are vastly different for prime time and late >>> night. Leno's been getting 3.5-4 million viewers a night and that's >>> fatal in prime time. Leno competes well against Letterman and >>> Nightline, but that's not the same as competing against CSI:Miami. >> >> Enemy gets around 4.2 million at 10:00 on Mondays, so Leno is already >> coming close to that at 11:35. From what I can tell NBC is averaging >> around 7 million at the 10:00 hour M-F. Can Leno average 5.25 mil for >> the week? If a 10:00 Leno program costs less than 2/3 of a one hour >> drama, and gets 3/4 of the ratings, it seems like NBC will be ahead. > > Looks like AB also thinks this is a good idea: > http://blogs.kansascity.com/tvbarn/2008/12/leno-at-9-this.html, citing > most of the same reasons I have. He gives a quick and dirty > calculation that suggests Leno would get around 5.2 million (based on > HUT levels) even without factoring in better lead ins from the 9:00 > NBC shows. He does not give what I now am looking for, which is the > average cost of a prime time Leno compared to the average cost of a > prime time drama. > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Like TV only smarter. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
