On Mon, Nov 2, 2009 at 8:08 AM, MrBuddwing <[email protected]> wrote: > On Nov 2, 11:05 am, Bob in Jersey <[email protected]> wrote: >> About the press, the affiliates, Dave... >> >> http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/366971-Jay_Leno_Talks_Back_A... >> > > Can't claim to be one of Leno's biggest fans, but I've always > respected his clear, sane view of himself and show business. He comes > across as a genuinely nice guy who doesn't finish last.
Really interesting interview. I always come away from any exposure to Leno outside of the Tonight Show liking him a lot - I was genuinely surprised and disappointed that the *Jay Leno Show* has so much of the canned, pre-fabbed Jay and so little of what I will call the "real" Jay that we see in other contexts. That said, I don't know how sane his view of himself is in this interview. To be fair, while I have been reading a lot of the press reports about the economics and ratings of the show, I have not read very much of the critical review of the substance of his show. Still, it seems odd that his perception is that he is being unfairly beaten up on in the press - have there been a lot of critics who liked him on the Tonight Show and hate him on the primetime show? I think he is making too much of that, and it seemed the interviewer did too. If he had decided to break new creative ground with this show it would have changed the dynamics of the conversation, but as it is, the issue is simply, is this in the best interest of NBC in the long run? The answer obviously is that it is too soon to tell. One thing that becomes clear is that he is feeling the criticism from those in the creative community who think he is cheating them out of about 8% of the primetime slots every week - for someone who must have at least some personal and professional relationships in that community, I guess that would be difficult, and I have not been thinking of that. Another thing that is clear, even through the fog of his intense denial (which is what makes me reluctant to endorse the mental health of the man) is that his real irritation is not with the critics of the 10:00 show, or with Letterman, or even with Conan, but with NBC for forcing him out of 11:35. While he might not be completely healthy, he is clearly not a jerk, and is giving it the good college try to make this work - but if he had his druthers, he would still be doing the Tonight Show. One could argue that NBC would have been better off keeping Leno at 11:35 and putting Conan on at 10:00. I thought his take on Dave, and comparison with himself, was straightforward, fair and accurate in all respects. Where he was not straightforward was in his discussion of how the show is doing ratings wise. The show has not been holding steady at a point just above the minimum set by NBC. He says the minimum is 1.5 in the Demo, the article says he was at 1.6 in Week 5, and if that's true, he has been drifting closer to 1.5 the last two weeks. I think he probably is likely to stay above the Mendoza line, at least for a while, but NBC must have been hoping he would have been further above the line than he is now. He repeated his mantra about making his real hay against re-runs, then completely dodges the guy's follow up about doing poorly the first week of re-runs. The media stories about that were not hit pieces aiming at driving up circulation - Leno and NBC have been saying for 9 months the show will be justified when it goes against re-runs, and it certainly is fair to pay some attention to how the show did in its first encounter with re-runs. I have seen some more reasonable discussion of this from Leno supporters - to the effect that one or two weeks of reruns in the middle of first runs is different from reruns in the middle of extended rerun season (like December and March and much of the summer). According to this theory, a lot of people watched CSI Miami this week thinking it was first run, and then just stayed with it out of habit. But once we hit a period when everyone knows all the shows are on re-runs, they won't even turn to those shows at first, and will seek out new programming like Leno. Fair enough - sounds plausible. We will see. I think his discussion of the affiliate reaction was weak. Nobody, least of all Leno, believes they will stay with him if they continue to lose ground on the 11:00 news. It does not matter how much gladhanding he does with them. Closer to the mark was his discussion of the TV game in general as a business acquaintances, not friends. They will stay with him as long as he makes them money. What he has never really addressed is the large money making picture here. Even if NBC makes $300 Million dollars as long as he stays above 1.5 in the Demo, 10:00 strip could still be a money loser if the affiliates collectively lose more than that from decline in their 11:00 news. It seems like somebody should be able to do the spreadsheet math here and estimate how big an average decline in local 11:00 news ratings we would have to see to cumulatively offset $300 million dollars in profit from 10:00. Not to mention decreased revenue at 11:35, and on some nights at 9:00. Not to mention opportunity cost from broken relationships with content producers. Pointing all of this out is not bashing or unfairly dumping on Leno, it is simply trying to understand the full economic impact of this decision. If he were doing 20-25% better in the ratings (which would be like a 2.0 in the Demo) all of these questions would be less pressing. The fact that he is coming in so close to the line, so soon after his premier, makes them pressing indeed. One more thing - at one point he says: "I've been down this road, I did it with Johnny the first time—they're going to fire me and replace me with Dave. That was much worse; this is like a walk in the park compared to that.". Is that really true? I followed the Late Night wars pretty closely (not as closely as some here I'm sure) - I don't remember there ever being a genuine threat of NBC bringing Dave back from CBS to replace Leno. I recall that before Leno found his feet and eventually passed Dave in the ratings, some were saying that NBC wishes they had kept Dave (maybe, kept their word to Dave) and put him in the Tonight Show chair, but I don't think there was ever a real chance of Leno being fired and replaced with Dave - for one thing I don't think there was a chance in hell Dave would have taken that job once he started with CBS. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. 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