On Mon, Nov 2, 2009 at 9:13 PM, Kevin M. <[email protected]> wrote: > The reason NBC is confident in their all-Leno-all-the-time approach is > because NBC has made a sound economic choice (albeit a horrible > creative choice), and no affiliate can argue with fiscal strategy. NBC > has the affiliates by the short hairs. Let us pretend the affiliates > do demand NBC change. NBC can respond by stating they'll replace Jay > with five new dramas, but affiliates would have to be charged a > substantial fee to cover the cost of producing the new shows. NBC > would also have to buy out Jay's contract, the cost of which would be > absorbed by the affiliates, too. From the standpoint of profit versus > loss, the best thing NBC can do is to keep a low-rated Jay Leno on the > air. In every other aspect of the industry, the best thing NBC can do > is pull Jay Leno before he hits rock bottom. Which do you think NBC > will choose -- a wise fiscal choice or a popular creative choice?
Have you seen the numbers on this, or just basing it on past assumptions? What I have been trying to find out, so far unsuccessfully, is some estimate of how many millions of dollars the affiliates would lose if The Leno Effect drags their ratings down X percent, vs the costs of shutting down the Leno experiment. I have been told there is a lot of money in the local 11:00 news. I have some suspicion that there is some out for NBC that would allow them to exit the 10:00 stripping of the Leno show at some point, either with a discounted buy out of Leno or giving him some other assignment, perhaps a 2 or 3 night per week arrangement. At some value of low ratings for the 11:00 news, I think it becomes in the fiscal self interest of the affiliates to pull the plug. What I don't know is just how low those ratings have to go to reach this point. The B&C article said 1.5 in the Demo was one marker, which is interesting since even there NBC makes 300 million dollars on the show, but perhaps below that point they think the affiliates lose too much money? I suspect if Leno is around 1.4 or less when the calendar turns to 2010, we would see some big changes. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
