NBC is staying in the Leno business for the same reason they are moving him from the 10:00 slot - the affiliates. The affiliates really like him, and they think he will get bigger numbers at 11:35 than Conan is getting, and that is what they want. It is not thinking long (or even medium) term but I think they are likely right that Leno will get a better rating at 11:35 than Conan is getting right now.
I am quite sure there are more than a few suits over at 30 Rock who are actually congratulating themselves today for how things have turned out. A few years ago they were faced with the problem of how to keep both Conan and Leno under contract to NBC in late night; today they have valid and binding contracts that keep both Conan and Leno at NBC in late night. They would probably let Conan go if he insists, but I am sure they think there is little chance he will insist, since now there is no way he can make close to the same money anywhere else. If, 5 years ago, they thought they could get 90 minutes of Leno+Conan starting at 11:35 just by giving Conan a big raise and extending Leno, they would have jumped at it, and that is what they now have. Presumably they see Conan's Tonight Show moving back to 11:35 whenever Leno wants to retire, or whenever his numbers begin to slip. It is Conan who is in the tough spot. To go to Fox (if that is even a real option) is to walk away from millions of dollars, and to walk into a situation in which he will almost certainly have significantly fewer viewers than he currently has, for a long time. Indeed, the more I think about this, the more I think the only real option for him would be if HBO or Showtime wanted to get into the late night talk show business and give him an hour maybe 4 times a week. He could take extended vacations, do and say pretty much whatever he (and his guests) wanted, and not have to worry so much about conventional ratings competition. Other than that, he probably is best off staying at NBC, swallowing the Midnight slot, going back to Manhattan and positioning himself as the oppositional, underground, subversive show on the network. On Mon, Jan 11, 2010 at 2:36 PM, Tom Wolper <[email protected]> wrote: > On Mon, Jan 11, 2010 at 5:13 PM, Dave Sikula <[email protected]> wrote: > > On Jan 11, 1:30 pm, Tom Wolper <[email protected]> wrote: > > > >> I've given up on trying to figure out what's going through the minds > >> of NBC's leaders. Putting Leno on at 10 was so obviously going to lead > >> to an affilates' revolt that a Plan B should have been in place. Now > >> they're trying to bail out from that bad decision on the fly and it's > >> obviously going to lead to problems with Conan. > > > > And this all leads back to my question of why they want to stay in the > > Leno business -- especially now. He's damaged goods, as is Conan and > > the Tonight Show brand. Do they really think that putting Jay back > > into the 11:35 slot is going to recoup all those viewers who have left > > for other pastures? And what do they do if Leno's crappy ratings > > continue into late night? Move Fallon up? Resurrect Johnny? (Though I > > admit I'd love to see "The Tonight Show Starring Zombie Carson.") > > I'm stuck there as well. Let's assume NBC's thinking in 2004 was > sound: Jay's audience wasn't getting any younger and Conan wasn't > going to wait in the later slot forever. And here we are in 2010 with > NBC putting Jay back at 11:35 at the risk of losing Conan. Even if > they manage to stabilize themselves at 10 and 11:35 in the short term, > they have the exact problem they were trying to avoid in 2004 with no > strategy for a solution. > > Tom > > -- > TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google > Groups "TV or Not TV" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected] > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected] > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en >
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