On Sun, Feb 16, 2014 at 4:04 PM, Tom Wolper <[email protected]> wrote:

> On Sun, Feb 16, 2014 at 4:34 PM, PGage <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> On Sun, Feb 16, 2014 at 12:58 PM, Joe Hass <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>> I firmly believe that CBS will not replace Dave unless one of two things
>>> happens:
>>>
>>> 1. Dave dies.
>>> 2. Dave decides he's done (which may happen at any moment).
>>>
>>> There is simply too much in that relationship (and CBS is not nearly as
>>> stupid as NBC) for Les to go to the Ed and have "The Talk" with Dave.
>>>
>>> As for the other scenario (Conan stays at Tonight), I stand firm with
>>> the same two options. I am not equating Dave with Johnny. But for at least
>>> one generation, Dave is their late night hero, and no one is the same.
>>>
>>
>> I don't disagree with this superficially. But I think one of the things
>> that would factor into Dave deciding to leave is the growing sense that he
>> was not wanted, or was holding CBS back. If Stephen Colbert was doing a
>> popular 12:35 show at CBS, I don't think CBS would fire Dave, but I do
>> think the pressure would be strong for Dave to step down.
>>
>
> In the Dave scenario, you are missing one other possibility: CBS changes
> ownership and/or Les Moonves is replaced. If Dave does not feel in harmony
> with his new bosses or faces major budget cuts, he might decide he would
> rather pack it in and let somebody else fight the good fight.
>

Both of those cases are #2, where Dave initiates it by surveying the
situation and going "I think I'm done". In other words, he would jump
before there would even be an insinuation than he was pushed. Dave, I
think, would look at a CBS ownership change and make the call then.

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