On Sun, Feb 16, 2014 at 9:09 PM, David Bruggeman <[email protected]> wrote:

> 2. I will find it interesting to watch how Fallon's median viewer age
> (currently about 8 years younger than Jay & Dave) will change at 11:30.
>

I really agree with this. That average has to increase with the one hour
move (if it doesn't there will be something horribly wrong with his over
all ratings).

Dave was 46 when he went to 11:35; Leno was 42. Fallon is 39, but (at least
to my now old eyes) seems a lot younger than Leno's 42 was. How many young
viewers that do not currently watch the Tonight Show will follow Fallon to
11:35? How many viewers over 60 who never watch a 12:35 show, and either
did not watch or did not like Fallon on SNL, will stay with him at 11:35? I
suspect he will lose a few more older viewers than gain young ones for
Tonight, leading to a much younger but somewhat smaller audience than Leno.
But maybe he will lose relatively few old viewers (where are they going to
go, after all? If they were Dave people they would already be there, and if
they don't like Fallon they are unlikely to like Kimmell, and these are not
the kind that have the internet hooked up to their bedroom televisions),
and get a big chunk of those 18 to 30 year olds who have been watching him
exclusively at 12:35. Then he will be only a little younger than Leno, but
also have a larger audience than he did.

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