On Mon, Jun 25, 2018 at 4:37 AM Adam Bowie <[email protected]> wrote:

> I don't think there's really any certainty how Apple will package it or
> what platforms it will be available on. Some possibilities:
>
> - Apple might want to make it exclusive to their devices - iOS and Apple
> TV. Apple does most things to drive hardware sales after all, and Apple TV
> has probably lost market share to cheaper, and in many ways, more capable
> devices like Fire TV and Chromecast.
>

Apple could force service users to their devices when they were in front of
the pack with a new service. In that case the user did not have the
hardware. These days Apple is later getting to market and users already own
non-Apple hardware and are just as likely to ignore the service as to buy a
new TV add-on. My TV's remote control has buttons for Amazon and Netflix.
It's only a matter of getting a user ID and password to start watching
them. If Apple wants me to buy a new gizmo to watch their service they are
already noncompetitive.

My prediction before was that Apple is going to announce the streaming TV
service at their late summer presentation. There they will announce it as
IOS and Apple TV only. After a couple of months of new hardware sales,
which will fall off after the back-to-school sales end, Apple will open the
service to all users.

>
> - Apple could create a new video package that gives you free access to all
> their new TV programming, plus say, two premium movie rentals a month for
> $9.99. Utilising what is now the iTunes store would give them a leg up
> compared to Netflix.
>

I think Apple would rather spend their resources tying the streaming
service to the home speaker and tablets rather than bother with iTunes.

>
> While Apple is busy commissing $1bn on new programming, that's small
> change from their perspective. No doubt there'll be some big announcement
> alongside the next iPhone announcement in the autumn, and their experience
> with the iTunes store means that technically it'll work. Whether it'll be a
> success is something else entirely. I'm unconvinced that Beats 1 radio is
> being listened to much at all, and does anyone remember iTunes Ping -
> Apple's attempt at a music-based social network? But Apple is able to bet
> big and can afford to make mistakes. We'll have to wait and see...
>

Apple has been playing catch up for the last few years. Apple music has to
catch up to Spotify and Pandora. The Apple home speaker has to catch up to
Amazon's Echo and whatever Google's speaker is called. The streaming TV
service has to catch up to Netflix and Amazon Prime. They should be
sustainable if they have programs people want to watch enough to sign up.

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