On Mon, Jun 1, 2020 at 3:21 PM Tom Wolper <[email protected]> wrote:

>
> I don't get why Spotify is making this deal because they aren't content
> originators and, unlike Stern and SiriusXM, I don't see how it will sell
> subscriptions. Still, in a world where NBC signed Megyn Kelly for $65
> million with all of her baggage, this may not be such a shocking deal.
>
>
I think there's a two-part reason for this.

Firstly, and most straightforwardly, Spotify gets a massive new audience.
For reasons that escape me (although that Atlantic article gives a good
explanation), millions listen. I assume a decent number of people will
continue to listen on the Spotify app even if they don't subscribe. From my
understanding Spotify isn't putting this behind a paywall, just forcing you
to use the app. But even if they don't get any new subscriptions at all,
Spotify can better monetise that audience than many others because they
have so much data on their users. They know your demographics (you tell
them when you sign up); they know when, where and how much people are
listening; they know all kinds of things that *regular* podcast platforms
don't know - podcast data is notoriously limited without all the tracking
data that most digital advertisers have on you. So Spotify can offer more
details to advertisers and more efficiently sell the podcast. Reports seem
to suggest that what Rogan gets paid will depend on hitting targets. So on
a purely commercial level, this may make sense for Spotify for those
reasons alone.

But Spotify is also taking on the podcast industry. Their second motive is
to become closer to the default podcast platform. That helps their overall
business model - if you're listening to "free" podcasts, you're not
listening to "expensive" music. Somewhere around 60-65% of podcast
listening is currently via Apple podcasts despite Apple having 50% market
share of phones in the US, and less across the rest of the world. Spotify
wants in on that, and unlike Apple who hasn't been active in an area they
dominate, Spotify is spending a lot becoming a very solid #2. Exclusives
become a differentiator for them.

I'm not a massive fan of this direction. If your podcast is not in my
podcast app of choice (Pocket Casts since you asked), I'm
significantly less likely to hear it. But I can understand the business
logic of it from Spotify's perspective. Up until now, I don't think that
there have been as many killer podcasts as podcasts businesses need. Many
podcasts are "replaceable." We've seen Luminary try this, with their
exclusive range of podcasts, but reports suggest that they're hemorrhaging
money. In part this is because you can probably find a sufficiently good
replacement for any podcast that moved behind the paywall, or otherwise
never heard their exclusives anyway. Serial might be an example of a killer
podcast. Or maybe The Daily. Something people would change behaviours to
still get access to. Even then, I'm not sure that the NYT would put The
Daily behind a subscription paywall when it's: a) profitable right now with
their listening figures, and b) acts a massive promotional tool to drive
those NYT subscriptions. They spread that messaging every single episode!

Today there are more than 1,000,000 podcast series on iTunes.  If my
favourite tech podcast moved behind a paywall, I might be a bit bummed, but
I could probably find a suitable replacement. Spotify is gambling that
Rogan's fans will follow him and there aren't a bunch of others like him -
or at least as "good" as what he does. It might work for him and Spotify.
But who else would it work for? I'm not sure.

Disclaimer: I've never listened to him. I can't say that three podcasts by
*anyone* appeal to me. I only recently found out that he was the presenter
of Fear Factor which we did get in the UK. But I always found him the most
obnoxious thing on that, and that's saying something. Oh, and any podcast
that ever had or has Alex Jones on it, for any reason whatsoever, is not a
podcast I'm ever going to listen to.



Adam

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