----- Original Message -----
From: "Jed Rothwell" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Monday, September 12, 2005 10:47 PM
Subject: Re: CF Suppression? [Copy 2?]
John Coviello writes:
This is supposed to be a capitalist society, so where are the
corporations?
Protecting their interests and markets. We live under crony capitialism
in
the U.S. Let's face it, there probably is a lot more money to be made in
fossil fuel fuels and nuclear fusion than cold fusion, so the corporations
go where the money is.
No doubt that is true, but I think you miss the point. Exxon may indeed be
protecting its interests. And I am sure there is more money in fossil fuel
than in cold fusion -- at least measured in dollars per MJ. Although CF it
will be obscenely profitable for the first 30 years or so, like computers
in the golden age of IBM, before the hardware become a commodity.
But the thing is, take someone like Bill Gates. He is not making any money
in energy. If he were to take a risk and fund a start-up to develop CF, he
could take away all of Exxon's business. Hundreds of billions of dollars
would fall into his lap, for practically no effort. Most revolutionary
technology is developed by start-up companies, but these companies are
often funded by wealthy people. So I should be asking, "where are the
start up companies that want to eat Exxon's lunch?"
Perhaps there are no start ups because this is "crony capitalism," as
Coviello says, but it hard for me to believe that cronies would be so
loyal to one another. In the late 19th century it was legal for
manufacturers to get together and set prices. Later, this was banned by
anti-trust laws. However, back when it was okay, people said that after
the price-fixing meeting broke up, the prices would hold for the length of
time it took the negotiators to reach a telegraph office and secretly
underbid their competition. There was no loyalty! In Japan, price fixing
is rampant, and it is featured in scandals on the nightly news, but if
Mitsubishi or some other company finds a way to bankrupt the oil companies
by taking their business away with cold fusion, I have no doubt they will
do it . . . Unless overlapping directorships or stockholders prevent them.
Surely there is enough unattached capital (money not beholden to anyone)
to develop CF. A few hundred million would suffice, I !
think.
- Jed
That is one of the big arguments "skeptics" use against the reality of cold
fusion. If it actually works as proponents claim, why isn't one of those
always eager venture capitalists funding research into this technology that
could be the next big thing with a massive return on investment? Not a bad
question really. My answer would be that cold fusion is still in the basic
research stage, just starting to enter commercialization stage, so it hasn't
really caught the attention of the venture capitalists yet, especially when
big bucks can be made on say tar sands with the current price of oil, there
are plenty of other energy technologies they can invest in that can
demonstrate a return on investment. Venture capitalists are interested in
demonstratable returns and basic research is a money pit with little promise
of any return on investment. Actually, we are starting to see some seed
money flow into cold fusion with an angel investor funding Entergenics of
Israel and Solar Limited buying D2Fusion and perhaps investors providing
funding to iESi (who knows?). So, we slowly but surely seem to be turning
that corner.
It will be fun to turn on CNN one day and watch Lou Dobbs talk about the big
cold fusion venture capitalist craze.
I think big corporations avoid cold fusion the same reason why they avoid
things like funding energy efficiency or electric cars. Inertia and lack of
a clear return on investment. As we all know, corporate America is
concerned with the next quarter, not the next decade of energy use. They
are very short term in their outlook. If money can be made on fossil fuels
next quarter that is what they focus on. Cold fusion is ignored just like
every other technology that doesn't offer immediate returns. Look at how
hybrids have been developed. Did corporate America take the lead? No, it
was the Japanese who had the vision to fund hybrid research and bring
hybrids to the market. They might eventually win big on that decision and
corporate America will play catch up. That is the same with cold fusion.
Our corporations and venture capitalists will get into the game when it is
obvious that money can be made. The U.S. government's indifference and even
hostility to cold fusion research and patents certainly doesn't help to
change the atmosphere. It will be up to cold fusion entrepreneurs to bring
a workable technology to the market that sparks major interest. Things can
change quickly, so be prepared for cold fusion to suddenly get really big if
something commercial hit the markets in coming years.
