seems rational. Rossi have a big history of hiding problems, and anticipating success. DGT seems more rational, but you can have various opinions. mine is optimistic.
I interpret the silence after the tests as new tests and as stability problems that push them, rationally to stop claiming much. Then they started to communicate when they get more confident. maybe the problem was not stability, but the "business trust"??? many speculation, and many opinion based on various heuristics, of various experience in life... 2012/7/19 Abd ul-Rahman Lomax <[email protected]> > The speculation is pretty reasonable. While I prefer to leave all the > cards on the table until we know more, I'll say that the behavior of Rossi > and DGT has been consistent with a hypothesis that Rossi did see some kind > of major heat effect, and maybe even had some cells -- or a single cell -- > show long-term heat. > > Do people here know that Pons and Fleischmann were seeing 100% of their > cells showing excess heat at the time that they announced? That they had > this success until they ran out of the original batch of palladium; they > had not even suspected that the effect might be batch sensitive, *so they > didn't even keep any of the original material.* The rest is history.... > > Rossi is optimistic about his own ability to solve problems. But > reliability has *always* been the largest problem with cold fusion/LENR. It > appears that when a reaction finally works, it tends to poison itself, > devices may work for hours or days, generating amazing levels of heat, then > they stop working. Other setups seemingly the same don't work, or don't > work nearly as well. > > Rossi would not be the first inventor to exaggerate reliability and > perhaps to fudge some results, all in a good cause. After all, he'll have > the problems solved by next week, next month, next year.... > > This is consistent with Rossi lowering his announced COP, and also with > his focus on delivering large units, consisting of many small ones. It is > one thing if half the units in a megawatt assembly aren't working, but the > ones that work provide enough power to meet minimum specifications, and > quite another to sell many individual units, and many of them don't work or > stop working quickly. > > (And the megawatt unit might work on delivery, but then ....) > > Applying this to DGT, we may speculate that they did see sufficient > evidence to be certain that there is a heat effect. "But, folks, we have a > few details to work out ... " > > Details that large numbers of people have worked on for twenty years > without success adequate for a commercial product. > > Okay, NiH work wasn't previously the subject of such intense > investigation, and many people, I think, doubted that NiH even worked. It > probably does, but that's not at all the end of the question! > > > At 01:02 AM 7/19/2012, MarkI-ZeroPoint wrote: > >> The following is all speculation, but I think it’s pretty clear what when >> down… >> > >
