Fair points. Note that I am more mostly referring to Rossi and that LENR+ is currently available in some secret lab somewhere.
It's worth noting that much like most people here I generally believe in LENR itself and I am fairly optimistic that LENR+ might be possible at some point, even if in the distant future (60-70%). For example, perhaps it will require a much more fine grained control over particles and understanding of quantum tunneling to overcome the coulomb barrier. Or something. This is all intuition/speculation of course. As for my estimates: I like STM as they're by far and away the most credible institution that has gotten involved in LENR in a serious way. It's one thing for random individuals to do things, but it's another for groups of people / managers / public shareholder money to get thrown at this. The ARPA-E wasn't a big deal for me. It was one tiny box in a multitude of boxes. If ARPA-E is a big deal, than LENR has bigger problems as I've been working on the assumption that ARPA is just hostile to the whole movement from reasons other than scientific. I don't see Duncan as a big deal, more of a failure from an individual point of view. He bailed on LENR and the big donation, that really speaks more about him than LENR itself. Maybe he did it for his wife. Who knows. I was sad to see it though. Cravens is great. He helps show that LENR is real. Toyota and friends did some great stuff there as well. The Chinese thing is interesting and it was my biggest source of excitement. But then I just read that Rossi has staffed his biz with ex-gambling industry people. Yikes. On Mon, Jan 6, 2014 at 8:15 AM, Jones Beene <[email protected]> wrote: > > From: Blaze Spinnaker > > This is based on > * STMicro patent (Increased about 4.5%) > * Cherokee Investments (Increased about 2.5%) > * Rossi stating third party reports in March (increased 2%) > * Lack of news from Defkalion (-1%) > News seems to be coming in fairly rapidly at this point. > Could be updating this probability more frequently. > > > > If so, then the ARPA-E inclusion of LENR for funding should add something > positive, and the Defkalion departure from Canada should detract. > > Why give so much comparative credence to the STM patent application? First > off, it was not a very good application in my estimation, and could be net > neutral. Cravens patent stuff is more meaningful and important. The main > plus is that a major company went to the trouble to file something. > > Robert Duncan moving from Missouri to Texas A&M could go either way, no? > > The Chinese connection could be assessed much higher. > > > > >
