> This mixes up two things. The first paragraph discusses the revenue size
> of the market. NT tripled in the same period. NT is clobbering the UNIX
> market.
when i took statistics in college, i showed that there was a significant
correlation between the number of live births at the local hospital and
the temperature of the sidewalk in front of the memorial union at noon.
the point is that putting two sets of numbers side by side doesn't mean
they have anything to do with each other. NT's revenue size tripled..
fine. the commercial unix vendors' collective revenue size saw modest
gains.. lovely. what's the common variable which allows us to make
comparisons between those two markets? how are the two sets of figures
normalized to a common frame of reference?
how did the unit costs compare over that time? what was the overall
market growth for each install base? what change in market penetration
did each OS see over that same period? these are all significant
questions, but the four-number spread you quoted doesn't say anything
about them.
obviously NT's revenue size grew over the last three years.. this is
1998, and three years ago it was 1995. in 1995, Microsoft spent 1.5
metric whonkloads of cash to move people from DOS over to Windows95.
the install base for NT was negligible. as of today, the entire Win95
development path has been closed, and Microsoft is telling everybody to
move over to NT. if its NT install base *hasn't* tripled, Microsoft has
some serious problems.
OTOH, none of the commercial unix products listed has undergone changes
on a DOS -> NT scale in the last three years. in the absence of major
changes, the only thing driving the unix market is normal growth, not
internal conversions.
how do the numbers pan out if you look at Microsoft's entire OS line for
the period? subtract the losses in DOS, Win3.1, and Win95 revenues,
and tell us what Microsoft's revenue growth has been for its whole OS
product line.. not just selected parts of it.
mike stone <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 'net geek..
been there, done that, have network, will travel.
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