>From your side of this it certainly sounds like you have the edge on them in the long haul. Investor money will only last so long. I am surprised it is still there at all if that is all that keeps them afloat as you are implying. At this point I wish I could get a real look at their books and compare to their model assumptions. It would be an interesting story to read I think. I am sure I would learn things.
I know that bloated mobile wireless business models seem to work for some like Verizon and AT&T doing mobile voice and data. I have seen fixed licensed WiMax biz plans that show a projected profit by year 4 with seemingly realistic assumptions. Whether the guys you are up against are following this plan is something we just do not know. I know that many models do not accurately predict churn, rate erosion, penetration and competitive threats. A plan has to do more than look good, it has to be right. I am guessing very few wireless models are within 20% of projections after 3 years. After 5 years I am guessing the model is more like 50% plus or minus at best. What I see in contrast for most good WISPs is that they generally are able to hold or increase ARPU, have low churn and deal admirably with competitive threats. WISPs do not risk enough for their model to ever really break. Most WISPs suffer in the penetration area due largely to poor spectrum assets. This poor spectrum, non-exclusivity, low power equates to poor coverage areas. It is hard to have good penetration when you cannot serve people who ask you for service. This last issue is why WISPA has worked so hard for access to TV Whitespaces. It is one of the few things holding us back from more explosive growth as an industry. I wish the FCC would get off their butts and expedite getting us this spectrum with reasonable rules that we have been lobbying for for 5 plus years! If they would we would not even need the broadband stimulus plan to see explosive growth in this industry. Scriv On Sun, Mar 22, 2009 at 11:02 PM, Travis Johnson <t...@ida.net> wrote: > Let's see where to start... first, I don't like people or companies that > waste money. These guys are blowing through money because it's not their > money, it's investor money, so they don't care. The people making the > decisions are "employees". They will make $200k per year in salary, ride it > for as many years as investors keep putting money in, and then they will > just go find another job. > > Example 1: They purchased 4 brand new vehicles (Chevy Tahoes) for their > "managers" to drive. They then spent $2,000 per vehicle doing vehicle wraps > on them. > > They also do not have $3.6M in yearly revenue from just our community. My > guess would be they have as many as 3,000 subs right now.... but they also > sell service as cheap as $17.95/month for college students. I would guess > their ARPU is around $30. > > So, running the numbers (again, this is just our small community): 3000 x > $30 = $90,000/month income. Less salaries, tower rents, bandwidth, etc. > Let's say for fun they are "making" $50,000 per month gross profit. They > spent almost $1,000,000 on just the equipment in my area (population > 50,000). So that's 20 months for ROI for just the AP and backhauls... not > counting the $400 CPE they are installing at each customer. That also does > not count the 2.5ghz license they had to purchase for millions. > > I do not believe that a good, sound business requires investment money every > year to keep running. This is no different than a Cable company or Telco > business model... WAY too much fat and too many "managers" and not enough > people actually doing the work. Their business model does not work if they > continue to lose money every month... unless they continue to find stupid > investors to keep sinking money into a failing business. > > And I don't need to "steal all their customers".... we have more pending > installs than we can keep up with.... I have hired two installers in the > last two months and we are looking to hire another. We currently have over > 100 pending installs. We are doing 140-150 new installs per month. We have > no outside investors. We own our entire infrastructure free and clear. We > have no debt. Our 2008 year was our biggest year ever (gross revenues up > 10.2% and profit was up 15.4% over 2007). We don't carry the "fat" and extra > overhead that many companies do... if an employee is gone (installer, > receptionist, dispatcher, whoever) we notice it. We run a very lean, tight > ship. We never have people just sitting around with nothing to do. > > Last, for what it's worth, we are picking up about 1-2 of their customers > per month. This is without us doing ANY advertisting (except yellow page > ads), and no sales people at all. Seems to be working... WITHOUT investor > money. :) > > Travis > Microserv > > John Scrivner wrote: > > I do not care to see people trashing each other's business models > whether they are cash poor, cash rich or someplace in the middle. I am > actually glad to see some data on this particular model because I > think it actually could work well with $3.6M in yearly revenues. I > think it is impressive. I wish we could all gain access to some of > this spectrum, big cash, licensed WiMax gear and build it out. That > does not mean I think it is the only model nor do I trash the > occasional cash strapped guy building his first Wi-Fi POP with his > VISA card nor the typical WISP operator who took out a second mortgage > or similar "pound of flesh" financing to launch his first few towers > using unlicensed. God bless all of them. I think we should all try to > respect that each of us have a different approach. I certainly do not > pretend to think I have all the answers and I appreciate those who > share what they do to make their model work. I sense some sour grapes > here due to this network being built in your territory. If you think > it is a poor model then steal all their customers and teach them a > lesson. Tell us how you did please. That would tell a far more > compelling story than just trashing their model on the list. > Scriv > > > On Sun, Mar 22, 2009 at 8:41 PM, Travis Johnson <t...@ida.net> wrote: > > > Plus the cost of the 2.5ghz license in our area... which I heard they > paid like $7,000,000 for (in an area with 50,000 population)... plus the > licensed backhauls (Ceragon 18ghz in a ring), plus tower rent (they are > on the most expensive towers in town). > > No wonder they are blowing through investor money faster than they can > get it... LOL > > Travis > > > John Rock wrote: > > > Hmmm > > 4 sector 2.5 Ghz system > > 1,000,000 deployment > > 4000 users paying you $74.99 for Voip and Data from your deployment > > It all works > > Priceless > > Do the math > > > > > > John Rock > Director of Operations - Senior Engineer > > Wireless Connections > 166 Milan Ave., Norwalk, Oh. 44857 > ACCessing the Future Today!! > ofc. 419.660.6100 > > cell 419-706-7356 > fax 419-668-4077 > <http://www.wirelessconnections.net/> http://www.wirelessconnections.net > > This transmission and any files attached to it, may contain confidential > and/or privileged information and intended only for the named recipient. If > you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any > disclosure, reproduction, retransmission, dissemination, disclosure, copying > or any use of the information or files contained is strictly prohibited. If > you have received this transmission in error, please notify the sender by > reply transmission and delete this electronic mail. > > > > From: wireless-boun...@wispa.org [mailto:wireless-boun...@wispa.org] On > Behalf Of Travis Johnson > Sent: Sunday, March 22, 2009 7:44 PM > To: WISPA General List > Subject: Re: [WISPA] 2nd Look @ 3.65 ? > > > > Hi, > > We have BridgeMaxx in our area. They are using 2.5ghz licensed with Alvarion > WiMax equipment. This is the "top of the line", $50k per sector type stuff. > Then I can also tell you that we are seeing a LOT of antennas that have to > be mounted outdoors, on a tripod with a 10ft pole to get over the trees. The > NLOS doesn't seem to be working very well, especially on several of these > the tower is less than a mile away. > > So they spent $250k per tower x 4 towers in our area and they are still > having to roll a truck and do an outdoor install. And this is even with > 2.5ghz licensed. It makes me happy to see one of their antennas mounted > outdoors... that's means they lost even more money for that install... :) > > Travis > Microserv > > John Rock wrote: > > Matt, > I have pictures to show you... > Believe it or not? > > John Rock > Director of Operations - Senior Engineer > Wireless Connections > 166 Milan Ave., Norwalk, Oh. 44857 > ACCessing the Future Today!! > ofc. 419.660.6100 > cell 419-706-7356 > fax 419-668-4077 > http://www.wirelessconnections.net > This transmission and any files attached to it, may contain confidential > and/or privileged information and intended only for the named recipient. If > you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any > disclosure, reproduction, retransmission, dissemination, disclosure, copying > or any use of the information or files contained is strictly prohibited. If > you have received this transmission in error, please notify the sender by > reply transmission and delete this electronic mail. > > > -----Original Message----- > From: wireless-boun...@wispa.org [mailto:wireless-boun...@wispa.org] On > Behalf Of Matt Liotta > Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2009 3:29 PM > To: WISPA General List > Subject: Re: [WISPA] 2nd Look @ 3.65 ? > > > On Mar 19, 2009, at 3:18 PM, Chuck Bartosch wrote: > > > > However, that (obviously) means it's not particularly viable in many > situations where you don't see enough customers to support a wimax > base station. But because 3.65 with diversity is supposed to deliver > NLOS performance similar to or better than 900 MHz, you can see > customers you wouldn't otherwise see. > > > > I can tell you for a fact that even with uplink subchannelization, > diversity, and all of WiMAX's OFDM subcarriers, 3.65 does not deliver > NLOS performance similar to or better than 900Mhz. Throw all the > technology you want at it and 3.65 is still not going to get through > much foliage. NLOS performance in an urban environment on the other > hand is great. > > -Matt > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > ---- > WISPA Wants You! Join today! > http://signup.wispa.org/ > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > ---- > > WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org > > Subscribe/Unsubscribe: > http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless > > Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/ > > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > ---- > WISPA Wants You! 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Join today! > http://signup.wispa.org/ > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org > > Subscribe/Unsubscribe: > http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless > > Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/ > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > WISPA Wants You! Join today! > http://signup.wispa.org/ > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > WISPA Wireless List: wireless@wispa.org > > Subscribe/Unsubscribe: > http://lists.wispa.org/mailman/listinfo/wireless > > Archives: http://lists.wispa.org/pipermail/wireless/ > > > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > WISPA Wants You! 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