What is your prediction for 2009?
On Nov 30, 5:41 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> My comment:
>
> I quote from the article "ShopperTrak has estimated that 9.9 percent
> fewer shoppers will descend on stores this holiday season". This is
> just a prediction, not a fact yet. If finally it happens, that would
> be a serious problem. From an economic perspective it would mean that
> the US economy lost 9.9% of people aprox. From a human perspective, it
> would mean that the amount of people that cannot buy absolutely
> nothing grew such amount, I know what Christmas means in the West, if
> someone cannot buy for Christmas it means he/she cannot buy absolutely
> nothing but for survival (some of them).
>
> At the same time, to rise 3% on sales, probably matches inflation rate
> (I have not such information yet). If less people buys the same (or
> more), it means that the people who buy, buy more. Therefore, what we
> see is that people is falling into poverty, and the gap between
> poverty and middle classes is wider. As we were realizing in the first
> half of this year, before I left the department where I was until
> July.
>
> We could expect that, yes. But it is still unhuman.
>
> In other words, everybody is suffering this crisis, but they suffer it
> much deeper as their income level is lower, as much as to marginalise
> huge amounts of people.
>
> More than ever, development from below !
>
> Peace and best wishes.
>
> Xi
>
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBvgyrY3aNPg&refe...
>
> Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. holiday retail sales increased 3 percent
> yesterday from a year earlier, the smallest gain for a “Black Friday”
> in three years, research firm ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said.
>
> Sales rose to $10.6 billion, the Chicago-based company said in a
> statement. The increase was the smallest since a decline of 0.9
> percent in 2005 and compares with a jump of 8.3 percent last year.
>
> “So far, so good,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth
> Partners LLC, a retail consulting firm based in New Canaan,
> Connecticut. “But a decent Black Friday figure doesn’t predict the
> whole season. The question is, how much momentum we can keep” in this
> “challenging” economic environment, Johnson said.
>
> U.S. retailers are making earlier and deeper price cuts to lure
> Christmas shoppers, who are coping with the shrinking values of homes
> and stock holdings along with increasing joblessness. The season can
> account for as much as a third of annual profit.
>
> November and December sales at U.S. stores open at least a year may
> rise 1 percent, the smallest gain since 2002, according to the
> International Council of Shopping Centers, a New York- based trade
> group.
>
> Sales May Rise
>
> Sales may rise as much as 2 percent for the November- December period
> after the slow start in the first three weeks of November, Johnson
> said.
>
> Individuals may spend an average of $616 on holiday gifts this year,
> down 29 percent from a year earlier, according to a Gallup Inc. poll.
>
> Retailers promoted “doorbuster” deals to attract customers yesterday,
> called Black Friday because it was said to be when retailers started
> to make their annual profit.
>
> A worker was trampled by customers and killed yesterday at a Wal-Mart
> Stores Inc. location on New York’s Long Island, according to local
> police and the company. At least four shoppers were hurt at the store
> in Valley Stream, located about 13 miles (20 kilometers) from New York
> City, Nassau County Police said in a statement.
>
> U.S. shoppers gathered by the hundreds waiting to enter malls on Black
> Friday, some of which threw open their doors as early as midnight.
> They were lined up for discounts of as much as 70 percent.
>
> Kohl’s Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. department store, opened at 4
> a.m. Wal-Mart and Macy’s Inc. had a 5 a.m. start. Gap opened some
> locations on Thanksgiving Day.
>
> Fewer Shoppers
>
> ShopperTrak has estimated that 9.9 percent fewer shoppers will descend
> on stores this holiday season, producing a sales gain of 0.1 percent.
>
> “The mid-level department stores are the ones to watch,” Jay McIntosh,
> president of Consumer Foresight LLC, a Chicago- based consulting firm,
> said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They’ll struggle
> this year. People tend to be trading down.”
>
> Consumers’ spending makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy,
> and recent government data signal they are pulling back.
>
> Americans cut purchases by 1 percent last month, the biggest decline
> since the 2001 recession. After adjusting for inflation, spending was
> down for the fifth straight month, the longest streak since 1990-1991,
> according to U.S. Commerce Department data.
>
> Individuals may spend an average of $616 on holiday gifts this year,
> down 29 percent from a year earlier, according to a Gallup Inc. poll.
>
> ShopperTrak measures foot traffic in shopping centers and malls using
> more than 50,000 video devices.
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