Yes, it is a great idea. The current low price of oil will not last forever. The true price that oil produces need to make profits is closer to $150 or $200 than to $50, including intermediation and risk fees.
Also, the flip-flops of US dollars into international markets that has stopped international trade will not last forever, bsides the new global financial architecture that is beeng designed around the IMF, countries are finding new mechanisms to work around those troubles and to prevent them in the future. The agreement reached last week between Venezuela and Russia to use their own national currencies for bilateral trade is just another example. The trend of energy -and most commodities- is to rise its price, although temporarily (even during one or two years) it may remain flat or falling. Depending on how global demand behaves. Peace and best wishes. Xi On Dec 4, 10:05 pm, "Mercury.Sailor" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > It seems that Obama > > > plans to do something related to weatherize (is this word correct?) > > Well it depends on who you ask, If you ask me, I say it looks like a > good enough word. Who says we have to use certain words, I mean who > makes up these damn rules anyways? My dad drove me crazy when I was a > kid, Dont use that word, I must have heard it a million times, I told > him, why not? :o) Just because some man says its not proper? Who the > hell is he? hehehe > > I think its a great idea to weatherize your home. Especially those who > live in newer homes, They are insulated so poorly. > > On Dec 4, 10:38 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > LOL > > > I read something that might change my advise. It seems that Obama > > plans to do something related to weatherize (is this word correct?) > > homes to save energy. Maybe he plans to subsidiase those investments, > > I do not know yet. Then, my advise would not be to weatherise homes > > (isolate them from heat and cold outside) but to save money and > > weatherise them once we know his plan, we could save some money if he > > subsidiase it. In my opinion, that would be a great plan, of course. > > > Peace and best wishes and enjoy your shopping :) > > > Xi > > > On Dec 4, 4:27 pm, "Mercury.Sailor" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > Hey ! I never said said do not spend any money !!! > > > > LOL! Good , because I am not finished with my Christmas shopping! :o) > > > > On Dec 2, 9:16 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > I am sorry, no good news for 2009. Well, the best feasible news would > > > > be same as in 2008 or so so, but it is totally unrealistic. As soon as > > > > some people have accurate predictions I will post predictions and > > > > comments. > > > > > Hey ! I never said said do not spend any money !!! > > > > > :) > > > > > Yes, of course, save money, as much as you can and invest it on > > > > cutting future expenses such as food production, energy, isolation of > > > > houses to save energy, etc. Of course, farmland with good water > > > > supply. Large or small, all farmland counts. > > > > > Within next coming weeks, or maybe after Christmas shopping season, we > > > > have to pay atention to bubbles. If a bubble appears and is detected > > > > it is an opportunity as far as you sell before the bubble burts. > > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > > Xi > > > > > On Dec 2, 2:23 am, "Mercury.Sailor" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > authorities would manipulate most markets to rise price, i.e. stock > > > > > > markets > > > > > > I feel like Americans were hoodwinked last week, when the stock market > > > > > kept going up everyday. It gave a sense of false security right before > > > > > the biggest weekend spending spree in America. Than boom, here comes > > > > > Monday! > > > > > > Do you think its possible thats what they did to get people out into > > > > > the store this weekend? > > > > > > Starvation will grow, unemployment will grow up to 9% (in my > > > > > opinion), > > > > > > > at the end of the year there will be shortage of basic goods such as > > > > > > food. > > > > > > Thanks for the prediction, I was hoping for good news. Do you have > > > > > any advice you could share. I know, DONT spend any money. Perhaps I > > > > > should not buy any more gifts this year. > > > > > > Thank you so much for your help, Xi! > > > > > > You are the bestest! > > > > > > On Dec 1, 10:22 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > It is darker than 2008, of course. But there are two different > > > > > > scenarios. And I wish that I could see a third one. > > > > > > > 1) US authorities create a bubble. > > > > > > > It probably would happen next month or so. As many economists say, > > > > > > US > > > > > > authorities would manipulate most markets to rise price, i.e. stock > > > > > > markets (US authorities would buy stocks), futures (US authorities > > > > > > would buy grain and other products), etc. > > > > > > > In this case, it could create a bubble that would last as long as > > > > > > government (taxpayers) can sustain the bubble, even one year. It > > > > > > would > > > > > > not create real wealth, of course, unemployment would rise, homeless > > > > > > would rise, etc. but it could look like things are improving. > > > > > > > If this manipulated rise of price spreads to other industries, such > > > > > > as > > > > > > housingas they expect, it would rise the price again. > > > > > > > This bubble could last all year 2009. > > > > > > > 2) Authorities act according to monetarist-alike principles. They do > > > > > > not act on the real economy but only on financials. > > > > > > > Starvation will grow, unemployment will grow up to 9% (in my > > > > > > opinion), > > > > > > at the end of the year there will be shortage of basic goods such as > > > > > > food. > > > > > > > But there are some politic decissions that I cannot predict: > > > > > > > Will the next administration allow foreign sovereign funds to invest > > > > > > in USA taking above 50% of equities? If that happens in 2009, step > > > > > > by > > > > > > step the US economy will stop falling in 2009. > > > > > > > Will the next administration balance the Federal budget cutting > > > > > > military expenses? If this and the previous question is yes, US > > > > > > economy could enjoy some good years. > > > > > > > 3) In my opinion, the best scenario: > > > > > > Itincludes decissions of the scenario 2. Balanced budget and access > > > > > > to > > > > > > foreign sovereign funds in particular in banking industry. And: > > > > > > > US authorities create a huge development plan to create and improve > > > > > > public infrestructure (windmills for power supply, railways, roads, > > > > > > etc.). They promote (directly or through subsidies) cheap houses > > > > > > across the country. US authorities subsidiase current mortgage > > > > > > loans, > > > > > > in particular those related to cheaper houses. > > > > > > > In this scenario, 2009 would still be as bad as 2008, but not worse, > > > > > > and 2010 would be better than 2009. > > > > > > > But, along next weeks, some economists will make more accurate and > > > > > > elaborated predictions that I will post here. > > > > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > > > > Xi > > > > > > > On Nov 30, 11:55 pm, "Mercury.Sailor" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > What is your prediction for 2009? > > > > > > > > On Nov 30, 5:41 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > My comment: > > > > > > > > > I quote from the article "ShopperTrak has estimated that 9.9 > > > > > > > > percent > > > > > > > > fewer shoppers will descend on stores this holiday season". > > > > > > > > This is > > > > > > > > just a prediction, not a fact yet. If finally it happens, that > > > > > > > > would > > > > > > > > be a serious problem. From an economic perspective it would > > > > > > > > mean that > > > > > > > > the US economy lost 9.9% of people aprox. From a human > > > > > > > > perspective, it > > > > > > > > would mean that the amount of people that cannot buy absolutely > > > > > > > > nothing grew such amount, I know what Christmas means in the > > > > > > > > West, if > > > > > > > > someone cannot buy for Christmas it means he/she cannot buy > > > > > > > > absolutely > > > > > > > > nothing but for survival (some of them). > > > > > > > > > At the same time, to rise 3% on sales, probably matches > > > > > > > > inflation rate > > > > > > > > (I have not such information yet). If less people buys the same > > > > > > > > (or > > > > > > > > more), it means that the people who buy, buy more. Therefore, > > > > > > > > what we > > > > > > > > see is that people is falling into poverty, and the gap between > > > > > > > > poverty and middle classes is wider. As we were realizing in > > > > > > > > the first > > > > > > > > half of this year, before I left the department where I was > > > > > > > > until > > > > > > > > July. > > > > > > > > > We could expect that, yes. But it is still unhuman. > > > > > > > > > In other words, everybody is suffering this crisis, but they > > > > > > > > suffer it > > > > > > > > much deeper as their income level is lower, as much as to > > > > > > > > marginalise > > > > > > > > huge amounts of people. > > > > > > > > > More than ever, development from below ! > > > > > > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > > > > > > Xi > > > > > > > > >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBvgyrY3aNPg&refe... > > > > > > > > > Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. holiday retail sales increased 3 > > > > > > > > percent > > > > > > > > yesterday from a year earlier, the smallest gain for a “Black > > > > > > > > Friday” > > > > > > > > in three years, research firm ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said. > > > > > > > > > Sales rose to $10.6 billion, the Chicago-based company said in a > > > > > > > > statement. The increase was the smallest since a decline of 0.9 > > > > > > > > percent in 2005 and compares with a jump of 8.3 percent last > > > > > > > > year. > > > > > > > > > “So far, so good,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer > > > > > > > > Growth > > > > > > > > Partners LLC, a retail consulting firm based in New Canaan, > > > > > > > > Connecticut. “But a decent Black Friday figure doesn’t predict > > > > > > > > the > > > > > > > > whole season. The question is, how much momentum we can keep” > > > > > > > > in this > > > > > > > > “challenging” economic environment, Johnson said. > > > > > > > > > U.S. retailers are making earlier and deeper price cuts to lure > > > > > > > > Christmas shoppers, who are coping with the shrinking values of > > > > > > > > homes > > > > > > > > and stock holdings along with increasing joblessness. The > > > > > > > > season can > > > > > > > > account for as much as a third of annual profit. > > > > > > > > > November and December sales at U.S. stores open at least a year > > > > > > > > may > > > > > > > > rise 1 percent, the smallest gain since 2002, according to the > > > > > > > > International Council of Shopping Centers, a New York- based > > > > > > > > trade > > > > > > > > group. > > > > > > > > > Sales May Rise > > > > > > > > > Sales may rise as much as 2 percent for the November- December > > > > > > > > period > > > > > > > > after the slow start in the first three weeks of November, > > > > > > > > Johnson > > > > > > > > said. > > ... > > read more » --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. 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