> Hey ! I never said said do not spend any money !!!
LOL! Good , because I am not finished with my Christmas shopping! :o) On Dec 2, 9:16 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I am sorry, no good news for 2009. Well, the best feasible news would > be same as in 2008 or so so, but it is totally unrealistic. As soon as > some people have accurate predictions I will post predictions and > comments. > > Hey ! I never said said do not spend any money !!! > > :) > > Yes, of course, save money, as much as you can and invest it on > cutting future expenses such as food production, energy, isolation of > houses to save energy, etc. Of course, farmland with good water > supply. Large or small, all farmland counts. > > Within next coming weeks, or maybe after Christmas shopping season, we > have to pay atention to bubbles. If a bubble appears and is detected > it is an opportunity as far as you sell before the bubble burts. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > On Dec 2, 2:23 am, "Mercury.Sailor" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > authorities would manipulate most markets to rise price, i.e. stock > > > markets > > > I feel like Americans were hoodwinked last week, when the stock market > > kept going up everyday. It gave a sense of false security right before > > the biggest weekend spending spree in America. Than boom, here comes > > Monday! > > > Do you think its possible thats what they did to get people out into > > the store this weekend? > > > Starvation will grow, unemployment will grow up to 9% (in my > > opinion), > > > > at the end of the year there will be shortage of basic goods such as > > > food. > > > Thanks for the prediction, I was hoping for good news. Do you have > > any advice you could share. I know, DONT spend any money. Perhaps I > > should not buy any more gifts this year. > > > Thank you so much for your help, Xi! > > > You are the bestest! > > > On Dec 1, 10:22 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > It is darker than 2008, of course. But there are two different > > > scenarios. And I wish that I could see a third one. > > > > 1) US authorities create a bubble. > > > > It probably would happen next month or so. As many economists say, US > > > authorities would manipulate most markets to rise price, i.e. stock > > > markets (US authorities would buy stocks), futures (US authorities > > > would buy grain and other products), etc. > > > > In this case, it could create a bubble that would last as long as > > > government (taxpayers) can sustain the bubble, even one year. It would > > > not create real wealth, of course, unemployment would rise, homeless > > > would rise, etc. but it could look like things are improving. > > > > If this manipulated rise of price spreads to other industries, such as > > > housingas they expect, it would rise the price again. > > > > This bubble could last all year 2009. > > > > 2) Authorities act according to monetarist-alike principles. They do > > > not act on the real economy but only on financials. > > > > Starvation will grow, unemployment will grow up to 9% (in my opinion), > > > at the end of the year there will be shortage of basic goods such as > > > food. > > > > But there are some politic decissions that I cannot predict: > > > > Will the next administration allow foreign sovereign funds to invest > > > in USA taking above 50% of equities? If that happens in 2009, step by > > > step the US economy will stop falling in 2009. > > > > Will the next administration balance the Federal budget cutting > > > military expenses? If this and the previous question is yes, US > > > economy could enjoy some good years. > > > > 3) In my opinion, the best scenario: > > > Itincludes decissions of the scenario 2. Balanced budget and access to > > > foreign sovereign funds in particular in banking industry. And: > > > > US authorities create a huge development plan to create and improve > > > public infrestructure (windmills for power supply, railways, roads, > > > etc.). They promote (directly or through subsidies) cheap houses > > > across the country. US authorities subsidiase current mortgage loans, > > > in particular those related to cheaper houses. > > > > In this scenario, 2009 would still be as bad as 2008, but not worse, > > > and 2010 would be better than 2009. > > > > But, along next weeks, some economists will make more accurate and > > > elaborated predictions that I will post here. > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > Xi > > > > On Nov 30, 11:55 pm, "Mercury.Sailor" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > What is your prediction for 2009? > > > > > On Nov 30, 5:41 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > My comment: > > > > > > I quote from the article "ShopperTrak has estimated that 9.9 percent > > > > > fewer shoppers will descend on stores this holiday season". This is > > > > > just a prediction, not a fact yet. If finally it happens, that would > > > > > be a serious problem. From an economic perspective it would mean that > > > > > the US economy lost 9.9% of people aprox. From a human perspective, it > > > > > would mean that the amount of people that cannot buy absolutely > > > > > nothing grew such amount, I know what Christmas means in the West, if > > > > > someone cannot buy for Christmas it means he/she cannot buy absolutely > > > > > nothing but for survival (some of them). > > > > > > At the same time, to rise 3% on sales, probably matches inflation rate > > > > > (I have not such information yet). If less people buys the same (or > > > > > more), it means that the people who buy, buy more. Therefore, what we > > > > > see is that people is falling into poverty, and the gap between > > > > > poverty and middle classes is wider. As we were realizing in the first > > > > > half of this year, before I left the department where I was until > > > > > July. > > > > > > We could expect that, yes. But it is still unhuman. > > > > > > In other words, everybody is suffering this crisis, but they suffer it > > > > > much deeper as their income level is lower, as much as to marginalise > > > > > huge amounts of people. > > > > > > More than ever, development from below ! > > > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > > > Xi > > > > > >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBvgyrY3aNPg&refe... > > > > > > Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. holiday retail sales increased 3 percent > > > > > yesterday from a year earlier, the smallest gain for a “Black Friday” > > > > > in three years, research firm ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said. > > > > > > Sales rose to $10.6 billion, the Chicago-based company said in a > > > > > statement. The increase was the smallest since a decline of 0.9 > > > > > percent in 2005 and compares with a jump of 8.3 percent last year. > > > > > > “So far, so good,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth > > > > > Partners LLC, a retail consulting firm based in New Canaan, > > > > > Connecticut. “But a decent Black Friday figure doesn’t predict the > > > > > whole season. The question is, how much momentum we can keep” in this > > > > > “challenging” economic environment, Johnson said. > > > > > > U.S. retailers are making earlier and deeper price cuts to lure > > > > > Christmas shoppers, who are coping with the shrinking values of homes > > > > > and stock holdings along with increasing joblessness. The season can > > > > > account for as much as a third of annual profit. > > > > > > November and December sales at U.S. stores open at least a year may > > > > > rise 1 percent, the smallest gain since 2002, according to the > > > > > International Council of Shopping Centers, a New York- based trade > > > > > group. > > > > > > Sales May Rise > > > > > > Sales may rise as much as 2 percent for the November- December period > > > > > after the slow start in the first three weeks of November, Johnson > > > > > said. > > > > > > Individuals may spend an average of $616 on holiday gifts this year, > > > > > down 29 percent from a year earlier, according to a Gallup Inc. poll. > > > > > > Retailers promoted “doorbuster” deals to attract customers yesterday, > > > > > called Black Friday because it was said to be when retailers started > > > > > to make their annual profit. > > > > > > A worker was trampled by customers and killed yesterday at a Wal-Mart > > > > > Stores Inc. location on New York’s Long Island, according to local > > > > > police and the company. At least four shoppers were hurt at the store > > > > > in Valley Stream, located about 13 miles (20 kilometers) from New York > > > > > City, Nassau County Police said in a statement. > > > > > > U.S. shoppers gathered by the hundreds waiting to enter malls on Black > > > > > Friday, some of which threw open their doors as early as midnight. > > > > > They were lined up for discounts of as much as 70 percent. > > > > > > Kohl’s Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. department store, opened at 4 > > > > > a.m. Wal-Mart and Macy’s Inc. had a 5 a.m. start. Gap opened some > > > > > locations on Thanksgiving Day. > > > > > > Fewer Shoppers > > > > > > ShopperTrak has estimated that 9.9 percent fewer shoppers will descend > > > > > on stores this holiday season, producing a sales gain of 0.1 percent. > > > > > > “The mid-level department stores are the ones to watch,” Jay McIntosh, > > > > > president of Consumer Foresight LLC, a Chicago- based consulting firm, > > > > > said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They’ll struggle > > > > > this year. People tend to be trading down.” > > > > > > Consumers’ spending makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, > > > > > and recent government data signal they are pulling back. > > > > > > Americans cut purchases by 1 percent last month, the biggest decline > > > > > since the 2001 recession. After adjusting for inflation, spending was > > > > > down for the fifth straight month, the longest streak since 1990-1991, > > > > > according to U.S. Commerce Department data. > > > > > > Individuals may spend an average of $616 on holiday gifts this year, > > > > > down 29 percent from a year earlier, according to a Gallup Inc. poll. > > > > > > ShopperTrak measures foot traffic in shopping centers > > ... > > read more »- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
