> authorities would manipulate most markets to rise price, i.e. stock > markets
I feel like Americans were hoodwinked last week, when the stock market kept going up everyday. It gave a sense of false security right before the biggest weekend spending spree in America. Than boom, here comes Monday! Do you think its possible thats what they did to get people out into the store this weekend? Starvation will grow, unemployment will grow up to 9% (in my opinion), > at the end of the year there will be shortage of basic goods such as > food. Thanks for the prediction, I was hoping for good news. Do you have any advice you could share. I know, DONT spend any money. Perhaps I should not buy any more gifts this year. Thank you so much for your help, Xi! You are the bestest! On Dec 1, 10:22 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > It is darker than 2008, of course. But there are two different > scenarios. And I wish that I could see a third one. > > 1) US authorities create a bubble. > > It probably would happen next month or so. As many economists say, US > authorities would manipulate most markets to rise price, i.e. stock > markets (US authorities would buy stocks), futures (US authorities > would buy grain and other products), etc. > > In this case, it could create a bubble that would last as long as > government (taxpayers) can sustain the bubble, even one year. It would > not create real wealth, of course, unemployment would rise, homeless > would rise, etc. but it could look like things are improving. > > If this manipulated rise of price spreads to other industries, such as > housingas they expect, it would rise the price again. > > This bubble could last all year 2009. > > 2) Authorities act according to monetarist-alike principles. They do > not act on the real economy but only on financials. > > Starvation will grow, unemployment will grow up to 9% (in my opinion), > at the end of the year there will be shortage of basic goods such as > food. > > But there are some politic decissions that I cannot predict: > > Will the next administration allow foreign sovereign funds to invest > in USA taking above 50% of equities? If that happens in 2009, step by > step the US economy will stop falling in 2009. > > Will the next administration balance the Federal budget cutting > military expenses? If this and the previous question is yes, US > economy could enjoy some good years. > > 3) In my opinion, the best scenario: > Itincludes decissions of the scenario 2. Balanced budget and access to > foreign sovereign funds in particular in banking industry. And: > > US authorities create a huge development plan to create and improve > public infrestructure (windmills for power supply, railways, roads, > etc.). They promote (directly or through subsidies) cheap houses > across the country. US authorities subsidiase current mortgage loans, > in particular those related to cheaper houses. > > In this scenario, 2009 would still be as bad as 2008, but not worse, > and 2010 would be better than 2009. > > But, along next weeks, some economists will make more accurate and > elaborated predictions that I will post here. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > On Nov 30, 11:55 pm, "Mercury.Sailor" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > What is your prediction for 2009? > > > On Nov 30, 5:41 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > My comment: > > > > I quote from the article "ShopperTrak has estimated that 9.9 percent > > > fewer shoppers will descend on stores this holiday season". This is > > > just a prediction, not a fact yet. If finally it happens, that would > > > be a serious problem. From an economic perspective it would mean that > > > the US economy lost 9.9% of people aprox. From a human perspective, it > > > would mean that the amount of people that cannot buy absolutely > > > nothing grew such amount, I know what Christmas means in the West, if > > > someone cannot buy for Christmas it means he/she cannot buy absolutely > > > nothing but for survival (some of them). > > > > At the same time, to rise 3% on sales, probably matches inflation rate > > > (I have not such information yet). If less people buys the same (or > > > more), it means that the people who buy, buy more. Therefore, what we > > > see is that people is falling into poverty, and the gap between > > > poverty and middle classes is wider. As we were realizing in the first > > > half of this year, before I left the department where I was until > > > July. > > > > We could expect that, yes. But it is still unhuman. > > > > In other words, everybody is suffering this crisis, but they suffer it > > > much deeper as their income level is lower, as much as to marginalise > > > huge amounts of people. > > > > More than ever, development from below ! > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > Xi > > > >http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBvgyrY3aNPg&refe... > > > > Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. holiday retail sales increased 3 percent > > > yesterday from a year earlier, the smallest gain for a “Black Friday” > > > in three years, research firm ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said. > > > > Sales rose to $10.6 billion, the Chicago-based company said in a > > > statement. The increase was the smallest since a decline of 0.9 > > > percent in 2005 and compares with a jump of 8.3 percent last year. > > > > “So far, so good,” said Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth > > > Partners LLC, a retail consulting firm based in New Canaan, > > > Connecticut. “But a decent Black Friday figure doesn’t predict the > > > whole season. The question is, how much momentum we can keep” in this > > > “challenging” economic environment, Johnson said. > > > > U.S. retailers are making earlier and deeper price cuts to lure > > > Christmas shoppers, who are coping with the shrinking values of homes > > > and stock holdings along with increasing joblessness. The season can > > > account for as much as a third of annual profit. > > > > November and December sales at U.S. stores open at least a year may > > > rise 1 percent, the smallest gain since 2002, according to the > > > International Council of Shopping Centers, a New York- based trade > > > group. > > > > Sales May Rise > > > > Sales may rise as much as 2 percent for the November- December period > > > after the slow start in the first three weeks of November, Johnson > > > said. > > > > Individuals may spend an average of $616 on holiday gifts this year, > > > down 29 percent from a year earlier, according to a Gallup Inc. poll. > > > > Retailers promoted “doorbuster” deals to attract customers yesterday, > > > called Black Friday because it was said to be when retailers started > > > to make their annual profit. > > > > A worker was trampled by customers and killed yesterday at a Wal-Mart > > > Stores Inc. location on New York’s Long Island, according to local > > > police and the company. At least four shoppers were hurt at the store > > > in Valley Stream, located about 13 miles (20 kilometers) from New York > > > City, Nassau County Police said in a statement. > > > > U.S. shoppers gathered by the hundreds waiting to enter malls on Black > > > Friday, some of which threw open their doors as early as midnight. > > > They were lined up for discounts of as much as 70 percent. > > > > Kohl’s Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. department store, opened at 4 > > > a.m. Wal-Mart and Macy’s Inc. had a 5 a.m. start. Gap opened some > > > locations on Thanksgiving Day. > > > > Fewer Shoppers > > > > ShopperTrak has estimated that 9.9 percent fewer shoppers will descend > > > on stores this holiday season, producing a sales gain of 0.1 percent. > > > > “The mid-level department stores are the ones to watch,” Jay McIntosh, > > > president of Consumer Foresight LLC, a Chicago- based consulting firm, > > > said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “They’ll struggle > > > this year. People tend to be trading down.” > > > > Consumers’ spending makes up more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, > > > and recent government data signal they are pulling back. > > > > Americans cut purchases by 1 percent last month, the biggest decline > > > since the 2001 recession. After adjusting for inflation, spending was > > > down for the fifth straight month, the longest streak since 1990-1991, > > > according to U.S. Commerce Department data. > > > > Individuals may spend an average of $616 on holiday gifts this year, > > > down 29 percent from a year earlier, according to a Gallup Inc. poll. > > > > ShopperTrak measures foot traffic in shopping centers and malls using > > > more than 50,000 video devices.- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
