If AlphaGo had lost at least one game, I'd understand how people can have an upper bound on its level, but with 5-0 (except for Blitz) it's hard to have an upper bound on his level. After all, AlphaGo might just have played well enough for crushing Fan Hui, and a weak move while the position is still in favor of AlphaGo is not really a weak move (at least in a game-theoretic point of view...).
On Mon, Feb 1, 2016 at 12:12 PM, Petr Baudis <pa...@ucw.cz> wrote: > Hi! > > On Mon, Feb 01, 2016 at 09:19:56AM +0000, Darren Cook wrote: > > > someone cracked Go right before that started. Then I'd have plenty of > > > time to pick a new research topic." It looks like AlphaGo has > > > provided. > > > > It seems [1] the smart money might be on Lee Sedol: > > > > 1. Ke Jie (world champ) – limited strength…but still amazing… Less than > > 5% chance against Lee Sedol now. But as it can go stronger, who knows > > its future… > > 2. Mi Yuting (world champ) – appears to be a ‘chong-duan-shao-nian (kids > > on the path to pros)’, ~high-level amateur. > > 3, Li Jie (former national team player) – appears to be pro-level. one > > of the games is almost perfect (for AlphaGo) > > > > > > On the other hand, AlphaGo got its jump in level very quickly (*), so it > > is hard to know if they just got lucky (i.e. with ideas things working > > first time) or if there is still some significant tweaking possible in > > these 5 months of extra development (October 2015 to March 2016). > > AlphaGo's achievement is impressive, but I'll bet on Lee Sedol > any time if he gets some people to explain the weaknesses of computers > and does some serious research. > > AlphaGo didn't seem to solve the fundamental reading problems of > MCTS, just compensated with great intuition that can also remember > things like corner life&death shapes. But if Lee Sedol gets the game to > a confusing fight with a long semeai or multiple unusual life&death > shapes, I'd say based on what I know on AlphaGo that it'll collapse just > as current programs would. And, well, Lee Sedol is rather famous for > his fighting style. :) > > Unless of course AlphaGo did achieve yet another fundamental > breakthrough since October, but I suspect it'll be a long process yet. > For the same reason, I think strong players that'd play against AlphaGo > would "learn to beat it" just as you see with weaker players+bots on > KGS. > > I wonder how AlphaGo would react to an unexpected deviation from a > joseki that involves a corner semeai. > > > [1]: Comment by xli199 at > > > http://gooften.net/2016/01/28/the-future-is-here-a-professional-level-go-ai/ > > > > [2]: When did DeepMind start working on go? I suspect it might only > > after have been after the video games project started to wound down, > > which would've Feb 2015? If so, that is only 6-8 months (albeit with a > > fairly large team). > > Remember the two first authors of the paper: > > * David Silver - his most cited paper is "Combining online and offline > knowledge in UCT", the 2007 paper that introduced RAVE > > * Aja Huang - the author of Erica, among many other things > > So this isn't a blue sky research at all, and I think they had Go in > crosshairs for most of the company's existence. I don't know the > details of how DeepMind operates, but I'd imagine the company works > on multiple things at once. :-) > > -- > Petr Baudis > If you have good ideas, good data and fast computers, > you can do almost anything. -- Geoffrey Hinton > _______________________________________________ > Computer-go mailing list > Computer-go@computer-go.org > http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go > -- ========================================================= Olivier Teytaud, olivier.teyt...@inria.fr, TAO, LRI, UMR 8623(CNRS - Univ. Paris-Sud), bat 490 Univ. Paris-Sud F-91405 Orsay Cedex France http://www.slideshare.net/teytaud
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