I agree that the best information will come from an interview of some users. To help you identify trends and potentially specific groups of people to interview you should consider creating a timeline of specific events a user might encounter. For example registration, first post, number of friends, number of replies etc. Trend this timeline along with drop off data. You should be able to see around what events a user is more or less engaged. For example, are they more or less likley to drop off depending on the number of friends or length of time from registration to a specific amount of contributions etc. There will be a lot you will learn from your users with this information and you could also use to to determine different groups of people to talk to.
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