On Sat, Apr 08, 2023 at 03:11:47PM -0400, John Clark wrote: > On Sat, Apr 8, 2023 at 8:19 AM Russell Standish <li...@hpcoders.com.au> wrote: > > > > Don't forget it requires a society of hundreds of millions of human > level intelligences to make a GPT-4. And it take a human level > intelligence > some 20 years in order to make > meaningful contributions to something like GPT-4. > Progress will therefore continue to be be exponential for some time to > come. Only when super human intelligence is able to design itself will > hyperbolic progress begin. > > > Although certainly extremely helpful most areas of science require more than > just a brilliant theoretician, they need experimental evidence, and so new > knowledge in those fields will not grow at the same explosive rate as computer > intelligence does; however there are two fields that do not require experiment > evidence and so should grow as rapidly as intelligence does, mathematics and > software development, including smart software they can write even smarter > software. And there are mountains of data on physics and biology that already > exist and they're almost certainly unknown gems hiding in there that nobody > has > spotted, but with new mathematical techniques and better software they could > be > found. >
Sure - I was trying to proffer some suggestions as to why Ray Kurzweil suggested 25 years between attaining human level computational ability and the singularity. I haven't read his book, just summaries - maybe someone who has could enlightent us. BTW - I still think we haven't cracked the problem of open-ended creativity, which is essential for something like the singularity to occur, but recent developments have lead me to believe it might be achieved sooner rather than later. Ten years ago, I'd have said the singularity wouldn't appear before 2070 (probably did say, though not publicly). Now, I've brought that forward to 2050s > > > It will also need to better the energy efficiency of human brains, and > it > is still orders of magnitude away from that. > > > Take a look at this video, it talks about Nvidia's new chip, with a data > center > using it an AI system that had required 35 MW to run will only need 5 MW to do > the same thing. > > Nvidia's HUGE AI Breakthrough is Bigger Than ChatGPT That is a seven fold improvement, not quite one order of magnitude. My understanding is that about 4-5 orders of magnitude are required before machines can really take over the world. It will happen, but on present exponential progress (classic Moore's law) that will take 2-3 decades. Current AI systems like GPT-4 require the resources of a small town of several thousand people for training. GPT-4 is about 800 billion parameters IIUC. A human brain has over a trillion synapses, so its certainly getting close. > > By the way, I think mathematicians and software developers will be the first > to > lose their jobs, perhaps they could be retrained as coal miners. > I don't think they'll be the first :). ATM, GPT systems seem to have an enormous propensity to make shit up, but less skill in making shit up that is correct. ISTM the creative arts might be the area to lose their jobs first. > John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis > 8fi > > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email > to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/ > everything-list/ > CAJPayv15B0KuA4vUUid4YGex_H9uqwTnbKT9EU_64mqjNioXcw%40mail.gmail.com. -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) Principal, High Performance Coders hpco...@hpcoders.com.au http://www.hpcoders.com.au ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/20230409000824.GB1379%40zen.
