on this will be found at:
http://hanson.gmu.edu/openhide.html
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
other
institutions that on average do better? So far direction comparisons
between markets and other institutions in the field have favored
markets. And real and play money have come out about the same. But the
jury is still out.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant
about yesterday. But if you wait a few years, I'm
sure the academics who did the previous studies will extend them to include
this new data.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
Tradesports, IEM, Betfair give Kerry a 71 to 74% chance to win.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Since the precedent has been set, let me advertise my new paper:
---
http://hanson.gmu.edu/biashelp.pdf
Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy
by Robin Hanson and Ryan Oprea, March 2004
plausibility. But you'd need to argue that
the huge increase in IQ that has been documented during this last century
isn't really an increase in intelligence. And doing that makes it harder
to take Jewish IQ as relevant data.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor
the questions of what exactly are the cues that
our evolved minds use to figure out which topics they should act dumb on.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703
?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
by assumption the opportunity cost of humans is roughly the cost to
feed them.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
of laborers is low and
fat. The demand curve may rise to great heights, but eventually if falls
down to meet such a low supply curve.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326
than 11 people trying to plow with hand tools. I'm
not sure why taht's so hard to believe.
Also possible, but perhaps surprising. 11 people are lots clever
than one. So the returns to being clever must be very low here.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor
.
The costs of colonizing should fall drastically in a million years.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
as ten people, or is it that they can eat foods that are
cheaper than food humans can live on?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been denounced
by two senators: http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax
on weekends? Do
people pay for parking on weekdays, but drive around looking for free
parking on weekends? Any other similar predictions hold?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
? Are there other examples?
Can we model this behavior as resulting from rational agents, or is some
irrationality required to make such a story work?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
bill.
Huh? This can't possibly be right. People could choose a cheaper mortgage,
fewer children, etc. In a world with a median income of ~$3000, someone who
makes ten times that much surely can choose to spend thousands on charity
if they want to.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http
: www.PolicyAnalysisMarket.org
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Fred Foldvary wrote:
--- Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
irrationaly optimistic self-assesment?
It is true that many investors are overconfident of their abilities and
wrongly think they can beat the averages.
But why call this irrational?
It seems to me that the concept
is not enough.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
? For example, might not the self-interest of
academics, as sellers of schooling, bias their advice on schooling?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
to
watch the movie together to infer what you want from this data.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
soliciting for a race by itself, or for someone
soliciting for a cancer charity by itself, but they do give money
to someone soliciting for a cancer run. Why the extra willingness to
donate to this combined solicitation?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George
these as opposed to any other set of three
positive features (such as humor, intelligence, residence, etc.)?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
they donated to the charity. If I donated
$10,000, couldn't you donate a few dollars?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
for racing but few people will pay me to mow my own lawn (or anyone
else's)!
Races are public goods?! How do I benefit if some other people run
a race with each other? Is this just due to some externality that
healthy people produce in general?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http
isn't much sacrifice, as I suggested.
If exercise isn't much of a sacrifice, then someone's
willingness to do it isn't much of a signal of their
commitment to a charity, which was the proposed
explanation that I was responding to in the above.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
and beg here? Would people tend to leave when they retire?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
?
Yes, but it seems unlikely many would do so.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
interests would be overpowered as they are now.
And as they are in any corporation.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
in
such a worlds?
Are state-enforced lawsuits really what keeps large multinational
corporations honest now? If not, then the concept here is to use
mechanisms similar to whatever large corporations now use.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason
similar they are, you'd think they'd be available in more than eight colors. )
Is this convergence due to technology or preferences? Is this just clearly
the cheapest way to make a roomy reliable car? Or do people now have a
preference for a car that looks just like everyone else's car?
Robin
square and boxy a simple way to maximize space
inside the car?
OK, but wouldn't this have always been true?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Grey Thomas wrote:
Let us assume the Bible is not true; further, that there is no Biblical God.
Thus, no basis for ANY of the 10 commandments, nor thus for any absolute
moral good vs. evil. So fornication, adultery, stealing, murder are not
This obviously results in a selfish, mean society
or so. (November 1997, Gallup Poll) so why should we
be surprised that many Americans also support farm subsidies?
Why is this inappropriate? Don't we have far more reason to believe
that humankind is more than 10,000 years old than we have to believe that
farm subsidies don't work?
Robin Hanson
, etc.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
look more like
their behavior is more of an adaption for children to act
less cooperatively than adults.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
and is perpetuated by cultural memes which are themselves the end.
I hope you meant original seed metaphorically, rather than temporally.
It's not clear there ever was a time when things were different.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN
demand is up. If quantity
is going down, we'd suspect costs are going up. Or maybe price
discrimination is getting easier, and you're just looking at the
prices the high value customers pay.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN
. There have long
been journals with strong editors, and I don't see much social
pressure against people who like such journals. There might be other
coordination failures with people liking the AER, but if so they must
be about some other fixed feature of the AER besides referee vetoes.
Robin Hanson
William Sjostrom wrote:
I agree that academia wastes vast resources relative to the goal of seeking
truth, but I disagree that this implies a market failure, mainly because I
don't think the ultimate customers fundamentally want truth. In fact, I
think customers in part want faddism and
doesn't even try here.
I'd say that the key stumbling block to a better theory of academic
journals is identifying the real customers and their preferences.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA
.
Is there a rebuttal to this somewhere?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Warning Labels as Cheap-Talk:
Why Regulators Ban Drugs
by Robin Hanson
One explanation for drug bans is that regulators know more than consumers
about product quality. But why not just communicate the information in
their ban
.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
At 04:59 PM 4/26/02 -0700, Wei Dai wrote:
On Fri, Apr 26, 2002 at 05:15:33PM -0400, Robin Hanson wrote:
I apply the same logic to government. If I believe, as I do, that people
often overestimate the value they get from government, I should fix that if
I can by persuasion.
What if you
the advice.
Btw, if people could be persuaded, this is the form of government I'd
advise them to choose: http://hanson.gmu.edu/futarchy.html
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326
are doing it to avoid taxes, and so failure to
contact will be coded as not working for wages.
Anyone ever estimated the size of the deadweight loss from the
income tax distortion?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow
them.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
to audit time spent.
We need enough data so that audits are feasible.
Question: Would such a program necessarily imply flat
taxation, instead of progressive, since income will
not be reported but hours will?
Tax as a function of hours need not be flat.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http
the consumption of those workers, to minimize the regard
in which those workers are held by associates, or to maximize their
mating with potential partners who these workers might compete for.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3
in far more
detail.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
, but usually
control problems are dominated by decision theory issues, not physics issues.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Dr. Alexander Tabarrok wrote:
Another armchair economist made the news! Robin (Hanson) was
mentioned in yesterday's (Sunday Feb. 10, 2002) New York Times in an
interesting article about using experimental markets to generate
marketing information. ...
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/02/10
.
But consistency seems to suggest that I should then also not much believe
economists when they tell me why they write the papers they do.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326
inconsistent?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
people want to prevent trans-racial adoption.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
correct in a
solid piece of economic history, or demonstrating a sense of judgement and
wisdom on policy relevant issues seems to be more the hallmark of the best
within the Austrian approach.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN
threatened, its members are programmed to reassure each other of
their affection and loyalty. Sex can do that. Babies may result, but
perhaps other processes can reduce that effect when babies are less desired.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George
this are described at http://hanson.gmu.edu/decisionmarkets.pdf) I predict
that speculators would estimate a *much* smaller than 9pt difference,
if any, between Republican vs. Democrat stock returns.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason
of an economic situation without having to
analyze it in enough detail to figure out if there is a market failure.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
someone else to take over your
$7000 per year obligation for only $70,000. So you should
be able to refinance, make the same loan payment, and have
$30,000 more equity in your house.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow
directly causes our
society to be more tolerant of diverse religious expressions. But I'd
want to see more evidence in favor of this theory before accepting it.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA
speech.
Probably $1/year is more the median answer for how much a person
is willing to pay to have a constitutional protection against
the government banning that person's speech.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow
ght be larger for the attached and the poor, who are less desired.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
of these
questions. And I very much like your creativity and coming
up with theories to consider. But until we can convince
more other people to favor our theories, we have to still
call them open questions.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George
with good
nutrition a century ago didn't live anywhere near as long as we do.
2) Why are some nations rich and others poor?
Are you claiming that we have little or no knowledge about this topic?
No, just that the topic is terribly important.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http
to summarize how much progress economics has made
since the year 2000.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
and others poor?
3) Which kinds of consumption are more vs. less positional?
4) Why do people agree to disagree?
5) Why do the young ignore lifestyle advice from the old?
6) What exactly do people get out of voting?
7) What is the functional form of a typical utility function U($)?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL
ess likely to see it fixed.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Jewish tradition of "Julilee" redistributed every
50 years, which makes more sense.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
Chris Auld wrote:
On Tue, 10 Oct 2000, Robin Hanson wrote:
If the monopolist equals the paper authors, and the product
over which there is a monopoly has its primary value in producing
this paper, then I think the journal should require that the
algorithm be made available free to others
leaders would fear for their lives.
That seems a plausible theory to me.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
oups of people based on small possibly non-
representative sets of examples, and consciously try to overcome
this tendency. Overall, I'd say they do a reasonable job of
correcting for this possible cognitive bias.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George
oning tend to assume that people are not meta-rational. This may
be true, but most of the evidence presented just show cognitive errors,
and is silent on the issue of meta-rationality.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Ha
about realizing that each person tends to think highly of
him/herself, and trying to compensate for that. How is this so far-fetched?
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX
ntroduction of cheap syringes, both of which might explain why
infection didn't happen earlier. But I'm not sure they can explain why
we haven't seen more such transmissions since then.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Ca
about
reports of when people said they saw the disease, but about what we can now
infer
about who had what when.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
to suggests it benefits us as well.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
to there, though they clearly
don't weigh very heavily on them, since such aid is rather small.
They treat the two ways of helping differently, even though the way
of helping others that they avoid would actually help them as well.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics
orm agenda.
*****
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
means that you don't get any benefits, and your
contribution is reduced down to the level required to maintain the current
inter-generational redistribution. This is what I had in mind, but should
have said.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Maso
. The
observe a correlation between extremism and apparently objective measures of
inflexibility. So either you have to say the data doesn't measure what it
seems, or accept the data and try to explain it.
Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
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