Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Phil Henshaw wrote: Well that curve is the clearest kind of complex systems inforation we ever get. This is one beautiful and dramatic bullet of information, and I think if we ask a hundred systems scientists what it means we'll get a lot of opinion, much of it not based on systems theory.

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Marcus G. Daniels Sent: Wednesday, August 09, 2006 1:37 AM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3 Phil Henshaw wrote: What do you think the amazing

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Hi Phil, But on systems, you say this research institute idea will let people become nearly clairvoyant about how people will behave. Um, you suggested a research institute, not me. I would see this kind of project as largely modeling work to be done, with a strong focus on skillful applied

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Phil Henshaw wrote: Honestly Marcus, your ethics seem no better than your sense of modeling. Just because we're in what the Chinese call 'interesting times' doesn't mean that abusing people is either OK or useful. At the end of a long work day, I'll indulge myself. Ok, I'm not a pacifist and

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3 Phil Henshaw wrote: I think modeling is out of reach, but story telling may not be. Telling the stories of how complex events can be read or misread would be a real service. There will be policy makers and I think

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

@redfish.com Sent: Monday, August 07, 2006 7:27 AM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3 Phil Henshaw wrote: OK, so let's take half the defense budget and spend it on Bucky's 'livingry' rather than weaponry. How much you need? It certainly couldn't be more of a waste than

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Phil Henshaw wrote: Try predicting the repeat offences of individual criminals. It's not possible. I'm actually not suggesting predicting anything on a individual level, except to the extent that ex-officio roles like Olmert, Nasrallah, Ahmadinejad, bin Laden, and Bush would probably

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

3:13 PM To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3 Phil Henshaw wrote: It seems to have been an error to trust our gut feelings about that, but we got worked up and did it anyway. Potentially complex system theory

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Phil Henshaw wrote: I think modeling is out of reach, but story telling may not be. Telling the stories of how complex events can be read or misread would be a real service. There will be policy makers and I think it is safe to say they'll find it easier to convince people of their policies

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Phil Henshaw wrote: it does point to one of the grand properties of human perception, and I think emergent complexity generally, that every observer feels 'in their guts' that their own perception provides the one correct model of the universe! Another view is that the perceptions shared by

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Hi Phil, It's a step in the right direction to try to distinguish objective fact from subjective opinion, but there are lots of things for which that isn't easy. It would be interesting to evaluate a model of political violence by populating an imaginary world with an ensemble of individual

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Unfortnately, neither business management nor governing is a total disclosure game. Even if it was, it's likely to be as complicated or more so than say Go (a great total disclosure game). Even the strongest Go players eventually have to resort to what 'looks good' or 'feels right' because

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Perhaps the best way to solve complex problems is to let your guts decide ? What did Stephen Colbert say at the White House Correspondents Dinner ? ..That's where the truth lies, right down here in the gut, see http://video.google.de/videoplay?docid=-869183917758574879 -J.

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

All, Please take good notes it would be the kind of thing that I would love to work on as perhaps a book or pamplet once I can get myself retired and out there. Nick Nicholas Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson [Original Message] From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

Nick and FRIAM-ers, I assume Nick's talking about the book-development meeting. I can't be at the meeting today, but wouldn't mind doing something on efforts to apply complexity in real-world decision making contexts - like foreign policy. - Laura