Re: [FRIAM] Agent-Based Modelling

2006-08-09 Thread Jochen Fromm
I am not sure if agent-based modelling offers better insight than the knowledge of history combined with common sense, but it is probably much better than Game Theory and pure mathematical analysis. One problem is the myriad ways in which actors in societies can interact with each other: if

Re: [FRIAM] Social networking sites

2006-08-09 Thread Jochen Fromm
Good idea, but a lot of others had it, too. There is already a large number of social networking sites with web interfaces that are building and organizing themselves. For example, to name a few, http://groups.yahoo.com/ http://groups.msn.com/ http://www.myspace.com/

[FRIAM] **today** Lecture: Wed Aug 9 2p, Douglas Samuelson: Attention Allocation in Organizational Decision-Making

2006-08-09 Thread Stephen Guerin
** today / non-standard time of 2p ** TITLE: Attention Allocation in Organizational Decision-Making SPEAKER: Douglas A. Samuelson AFFILIATION: Homeland Security Institute LOCATION: 624 Agua Fria Conference Room TIME: Wed August 9, ** 2:00p ** (non-standard time) ABSTRACT: Consider how

[FRIAM] Call for chapter: Intelligent Complex Adaptive Systems

2006-08-09 Thread Martin C. Martin
Speaking of books on complex adaptive systems... - Martin Original Message Subject: [alife] Call for chapter: Intelligent Complex Adaptive Systems Date: Wed, 9 Aug 2006 10:37:04 +1000 From: Ang Yang [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] APOLOGIES FOR MULTIPLE POSTINGS

Re: [FRIAM] Simulation and policy-making

2006-08-09 Thread Robert Holmes
On 8/9/06, McNamara, Laura A [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Computational social science doesn't lend itself to VV the way that physics-based mod-sim does, so creativity in VV is required...I agree, and I think the approach that RAND take is as good as any. My concern though is that any social science

[FRIAM] Kinds of complexity

2006-08-09 Thread Pamela McCorduck
As a followup to an on-line discussion, the face-to-face FRIAM group last week spoke some more about kinds of complexity.  I mentioned a paper of Seth Lloyd's, which is called "Measures of Complexity: A non-exhaustive list."  I have a hard copy, undated, and retrieved from Joe Traub's files,.  I

Re: [FRIAM] Simulation and policy-making

2006-08-09 Thread mgd
Quoting Robert Holmes [EMAIL PROTECTED]: You want a simulation that shows it's a good idea to invade Iraq? No problem, I'll interview a bunch of experts, code up realistic micro-rules and give you a simulation that shows yes, that's a sensible policy. You want a simulation that shows it's not

Re: [FRIAM] **tomorrow** Lecture: Wed Aug 9 2p, Douglas Samuelson: Attention Allocation in OrganizationalDecision-Making

2006-08-09 Thread Trainor Bradley
What results when the people with power poke their noses into the process, any time, anywhere is second guessing, distrust, fear, and resistance. Those with power need to allocate decision making authority and then stick by that allocation, even when it comes to restricting their own behavior.

Re: [FRIAM] Kinds of complexity

2006-08-09 Thread Robert Holmes
On 8/9/06, Pamela McCorduck [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: snip...In fact, asking for the true mathematical definition of complexity today is like asking for the true mathematical definition of electricity in 1800: to understand electricity, it turned out to be much more productive to define several

[FRIAM] Fwd: http://web.mit.edu/esd.83/www/notebook/Complexity.PDF

2006-08-09 Thread Pamela McCorduck
Seth Lloyd's paper about measures of complexity is on the web, and here's the link:http://web.mit.edu/esd.83/www/notebook/Complexity.PDF I sit in one of the dives On Fifty-second Street Uncertain and afraid As the clever hopes expire Of a low dishonest decadeW. H. Auden

Re: [FRIAM] Simulation and policy-making

2006-08-09 Thread Douglas Roberts
Phil,Not quite, unfortunately. EpiSims, and other similar ABMs can all too easily be used to identify weaknesses and potential exploits of social infrastructures. We did studies for the US DHS that demonstrated exactly this a couple of years ago when I still worked at LANL. One example was when we

Re: [FRIAM] Friam Digest, Vol 38, Issue 3

2006-08-09 Thread Phil Henshaw
Well that curve is the clearest kind of complex systems inforation we ever get. This is one beautiful and dramatic bullet of information, and I think if we ask a hundred systems scientists what it means we'll get a lot of opinion, much of it not based on systems theory. I think what's

[FRIAM] gintis's Game Theory Evolving

2006-08-09 Thread Nicholas Thompson
Hi, Has anybody any thoughts to share about Gintis's new book? I have like some of Gintis's work as presented at conferences. But I am struggling with this book because, despite an aura of userfriendliness, the book seems to leave huge steps out. It seems to be a compilation of dozens and