Re: [FRIAM] Honeymoon over!

2024-01-29 Thread Steve Smith
With integration of LLMs (and other ML) into AR and personal assistant tech riding around on early adopters "shoulders", I would expect these percieve-reason-act structures to be "in training" essentially learning how to emulate (and extrapolate) their user's/wearer's/familiar's decision

Re: [FRIAM] Slow AI

2024-01-29 Thread Steve Smith
>Though these were all experienced and confident men, the average year to year correlation in their results was 0.01.  The highly rewarded experts of finance have no real idea what they're doing, they are highly rewarded for an "illusion of skill"< One of my father-in-law's best friends was

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

2024-01-29 Thread Jochen Fromm
I saw this article mentioned by Eliot Jacobson on his X/Twitter profile which argues that our actions will most likely not be enough until there is a big shock which motivates real change. It also uses the Covid pandemic to illustrate that people are able to change if they are convinced their

Re: [FRIAM] Breaking Bad and Free Will

2024-01-29 Thread glen
I like your arc, here. But it's missing one thing that I think is important (for whatever that's worth). The freewill and choice tokens seem to point at the space containing both the outcome of the resolution process and, more importantly, all the many counterfactuals that "could have"

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

2024-01-29 Thread Merle Lefkoff
Sorry, Jochen, just about everything you recommend will make things worse. I also wrote about the failure of the climate models almost ten years ago. You nailed one of the biggest problems, though: even really smart guys don't know shit about global warming. On Sat, Jan 27, 2024 at 3:11 PM

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

2024-01-29 Thread glen
I feel like individual actions (like sorting recycling, buying/using EVs, etc.) are a tiny drop in the bucket compared to institutional actions. For example, the NIH recently held a meeting in Maryland explicitly stating a *preference* for in person attendance. This seemed egregious to me. I

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

2024-01-29 Thread Leigh Fanning
At some point we'll have SAF at scale. https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuels Leigh On 29 Jan 2024 at 03:26 PM, glen related > I feel like individual actions (like sorting recycling, buying/using EVs, > etc.) are a tiny drop in the bucket compared to institutional

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

2024-01-29 Thread Michael Orshan
Hi: Generating electricity via power plants causes 25% of the GHGs and uses 45% of the water in the US. In less populated countries it is closer to 70/80%. More EV will cause more need for electricity, so removing fossil fuels from power plants is the key. Solar and wind are helping. But the

Re: [FRIAM] Bad news about the climate

2024-01-29 Thread Curt McNamara
She is correct. The IPCC reports are also very conservative. An informal poll of the IPCC representatives gave 2.5C as the likeliest final temp rise. That is a huge amount, however probably not enough to eliminate humanity. We are turning the corner: carbon emissions have plateaued. However