Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Marcus Daniels]

"However, according to FEMA, the US Military, the Department of Energy, and the 
CIA there IS a 100% chance of an existential threat occurring within the next 
10-20 years. Massive failure of the power grid."


There are also risks due to inadequate monitoring of existing infrastructure, 
e.g. the kind of thing that happens when deregulation aims to maximize profits.

Folks always like to focus on bad guy scenarios and not dangers due to 
environmental events, especially the variety humans cause.


Marcus


From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Prof David West 
<profw...@fastmail.fm>
Sent: Thursday, August 10, 2017 1:24:29 PM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse


While undoubtedly fun, all the speculation (dare I say hysteria without 
sounding sexist?) about a Trump induced apocalypse is kind of far fetched. Too 
many intermediaries twixt mouth, button, and detonation.

However, according to FEMA, the US Military, the Department of Energy, and the 
CIA there IS a 100% chance of an existential threat occurring within the next 
10-20 years. Massive failure of the power grid.
-- Iran, Russia, China, and probably North Korea already have malware embedded 
in the system.
-- Major transformers have no backup (they cost 10-100 million dollars, take 
two years to build, and are almost all built in China)
-- Deaths by day 5 of failure will reach the 100s of thousands, if not millions.
--  By day ten, there will be no economy and no effectual government.
-- One of the highest ranked scenarios for this to occur is North Korea 
detonating a ship born nuke off the coast of Southern California - the nuke 
tuned to generate a massive EMP. And, we know they have nukes small enough to 
fit in a freighter. They can do this. Guam is absurd at the present.

Interestingly, none of the government agencies that are certain this event will 
occur within 20 years have any plans for how it will be dealt with!

davew

 BTW, the grid has been a particular interest of mine since an acquaintance 
caused the first major US blackout, in the early 70s, by toppling a few towers 
in the pacific northwest with a few sticks of dynamite.



On Thu, Aug 10, 2017, at 12:52 PM, Gillian Densmore wrote:
Budda nature, calm and a good ol' jedi  about now
Aka cooler heads tend to prevail and do some awsome stuf.


On Thu, Aug 10, 2017 at 12:03 PM, Marcus Daniels 
<mar...@snoutfarm.com<mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote:

"I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to hover 
over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our hand as to 
effective antimissile capabilities."


The best thing would be to have people in charge that don't freak out at the 
slightest provocation.


"Third, we must enhance our antimissile systems and other defenses, and those 
of our allies, which need our reassurances more than ever."


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/opinion/susan-rice-trump-north-korea.html

<https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/opinion/susan-rice-trump-north-korea.html>



From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com<mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> on 
behalf of Owen Densmore <o...@backspaces.net<mailto:o...@backspaces.net>>
Sent: Thursday, August 10, 2017 10:26:46 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

OK, what's tit for tat with the North Korea Guam threat:

President Trump seemed to draw a red line Tuesday when he warned North Korea 
that continued threats against the United States would be met with “fire and 
fury like the world has never seen.” The next day, North Korea crossed it.

Or at least it announced, in unusually specific terms, how it could. The 
country’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday night issued 
a statement that said the North is “seriously examining the plan for an 
enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 
intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy 
forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the 
U.S.” The statement, citing the North’s Strategic Rocket Forces head General 
Kim Rak Gyom, added that the plan would be finished by mid-August before going 
to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for approval.

“Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only 
absolute force can work on him,” the general said, in apparent reference to 
Trump, whose ultimatum he described as a “load of nonsense.”

I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to hover 
over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our hand as to 
effective antimissile capabilities.

   -- Owen

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/north-korea-answers-trumps-vague-threats-with-specific-ones

Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Prof David West]

While undoubtedly fun, all the speculation (dare I say hysteria without
sounding sexist?) about a Trump induced apocalypse is kind of far
fetched. Too many intermediaries twixt mouth, button, and detonation.
However, according to FEMA, the US Military, the Department of Energy,
and the CIA there IS a 100% chance of an existential threat occurring
within the next 10-20 years. Massive failure of the power grid.-- Iran, Russia, 
China, and probably North Korea already have malware
embedded in the system.-- Major transformers have no backup (they cost 10-100 
million dollars,
take two years to build, and are almost all built in China)-- Deaths by day 5 
of failure will reach the 100s of thousands, if
not millions.--  By day ten, there will be no economy and no effectual 
government.
-- One of the highest ranked scenarios for this to occur is North Korea
detonating a ship born nuke off the coast of Southern California - the
nuke tuned to generate a massive EMP. And, we know they have nukes
small enough to fit in a freighter. They can do this. Guam is absurd at
the present.
Interestingly, none of the government agencies that are certain this
event will occur within 20 years have any plans for how it will be
dealt with!
davew

 BTW, the grid has been a particular interest of mine since an
 acquaintance  caused the first major US blackout, in the early 70s,
 by toppling a few towers in the pacific northwest with a few sticks
 of dynamite.


On Thu, Aug 10, 2017, at 12:52 PM, Gillian Densmore wrote:
> Budda nature, calm and a good ol' jedi  about now
> Aka cooler heads tend to prevail and do some awsome stuf.
> 
> 
> On Thu, Aug 10, 2017 at 12:03 PM, Marcus Daniels
> <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote:>> "I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK 
> waters? Or sending 4 drones
>> to hover over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky,
>> showing our hand as to effective antimissile capabilities.">> 


>> The best thing would be to have people in charge that don't freak out
>> at the slightest provocation.>> 


>> "Third, we must enhance our antimissile systems and other defenses,
>> and those of our allies, which need our reassurances more than ever.">> 


>> https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/opinion/susan-rice-trump-north-korea.html>>
>>  


>> 
>> *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Owen Densmore
>> <o...@backspaces.net> *Sent:* Thursday, August 10, 2017 10:26:46 AM
>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group *Subject:*
>> Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse>>  
>> OK, what's tit for tat with the North Korea Guam threat:
>> 
>>> President Trump seemed to draw a red line Tuesday when he warned
>>> North Korea that continued threats against the United States would
>>> be met with “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” The next
>>> day, North Korea crossed it.>>> 
>>> Or at least it announced, in unusually specific terms, how it could.
>>> The country’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on
>>> Wednesday night issued a statement that said the North is “seriously
>>> examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through
>>> simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic
>>> ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major
>>> military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the U.S.”
>>> The statement, citing the North’s Strategic Rocket Forces head
>>> General Kim Rak Gyom, added that the plan would be finished by mid-
>>> August before going to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for approval.>>> 
>>> “Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and
>>> only absolute force can work on him,” the general said, in apparent
>>> reference to Trump, whose ultimatum he described as a “load of
>>> nonsense.”>> 
>> I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones
>> to hover over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky,
>> showing our hand as to effective antimissile capabilities.>> 
>>-- Owen
>> 
>> https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/north-korea-answers-trumps-vague-threats-with-specific-ones/536433/>>
>>  
>> 
>> On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 9:36 PM, Gillian Densmore
>> <gil.densm...@gmail.com> wrote:>> 
>>> I (razzingly) suggest bad summer movies or  that somehow all the
>>> Doom will some freeze in place at the same time.>>> Perhaps we shall some 
>>> how find a bunch of tribbles, zombies, a large
>>> rock in the sky, and dinso's all at the same time and that because
&g

Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Gillian Densmore]

Budda nature, calm and a good ol' jedi  about now
Aka cooler heads tend to prevail and do some awsome stuf.


On Thu, Aug 10, 2017 at 12:03 PM, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com>
wrote:

> "I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to
> hover over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our
> hand as to effective antimissile capabilities."
>
>
> The best thing would be to have people in charge that don't freak out at
> the slightest provocation.
>
>
> "Third, we must enhance our antimissile systems and other defenses, and
> those of our allies, which need our reassurances more than ever."
>
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/opinion/susan-rice-
> trump-north-korea.html
>
>
> <https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/opinion/susan-rice-trump-north-korea.html>
> --
> *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Owen Densmore <
> o...@backspaces.net>
> *Sent:* Thursday, August 10, 2017 10:26:46 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse
>
> OK, what's tit for tat with the North Korea Guam threat:
>
> President Trump seemed to draw a red line Tuesday when he warned North
> Korea that continued threats against the United States would be met with
> “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” The next day, North Korea
> crossed it.
>
> Or at least it announced, in unusually specific terms, how it could. The
> country’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday night
> issued a statement that said the North is “seriously examining the plan for
> an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12
> intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the
> enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial
> warning to the U.S.” The statement, citing the North’s Strategic Rocket
> Forces head General Kim Rak Gyom, added that the plan would be finished by
> mid-August before going to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for approval.
>
> “Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only
> absolute force can work on him,” the general said, in apparent reference to
> Trump, whose ultimatum he described as a “load of nonsense.”
>
>
> I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to
> hover over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our
> hand as to effective antimissile capabilities.
>
>-- Owen
>
> https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/
> north-korea-answers-trumps-vague-threats-with-specific-ones/536433/
>
>
> On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 9:36 PM, Gillian Densmore <gil.densm...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> I (razzingly) suggest bad summer movies or  that somehow all the Doom
>> will some freeze in place at the same time.
>> Perhaps we shall some how find a bunch of tribbles, zombies, a large rock
>> in the sky, and dinso's all at the same time and that because of the Doom
>> Metter the'll just stay their, thus no more doom can happen.
>>
>> On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 8:04 PM, Jochen Fromm <j...@cas-group.net> wrote:
>>
>>> I doubt that North Korea has the ability to hit a tiny island like Guam
>>> in the Pacific, but it can without doubt destroy the 9 million capital
>>> Seoul near the border with weapons bought from Russia or China.
>>>
>>> The danger of a nuclear apocalypse is greatest when the world has
>>> forgotten how dangerous these weapons of mass destruction are. Even trying
>>> to model mutually assured destruction is useless with people like Kim
>>> Jong-Un and Trump. How can he brag on Twitter about nuclear weapons? WTF ?
>>>
>>> -J.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> 
>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>>
>>
>>
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Marcus Daniels]

"I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to hover 
over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our hand as to 
effective antimissile capabilities."


The best thing would be to have people in charge that don't freak out at the 
slightest provocation.


"Third, we must enhance our antimissile systems and other defenses, and those 
of our allies, which need our reassurances more than ever."


https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/opinion/susan-rice-trump-north-korea.html

<https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/opinion/susan-rice-trump-north-korea.html>


From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Owen Densmore 
<o...@backspaces.net>
Sent: Thursday, August 10, 2017 10:26:46 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

OK, what's tit for tat with the North Korea Guam threat:

President Trump seemed to draw a red line Tuesday when he warned North Korea 
that continued threats against the United States would be met with “fire and 
fury like the world has never seen.” The next day, North Korea crossed it.

Or at least it announced, in unusually specific terms, how it could. The 
country’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday night issued 
a statement that said the North is “seriously examining the plan for an 
enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 
intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy 
forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the 
U.S.” The statement, citing the North’s Strategic Rocket Forces head General 
Kim Rak Gyom, added that the plan would be finished by mid-August before going 
to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for approval.

“Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only 
absolute force can work on him,” the general said, in apparent reference to 
Trump, whose ultimatum he described as a “load of nonsense.”

I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to hover 
over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our hand as to 
effective antimissile capabilities.

   -- Owen

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/north-korea-answers-trumps-vague-threats-with-specific-ones/536433/


On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 9:36 PM, Gillian Densmore 
<gil.densm...@gmail.com<mailto:gil.densm...@gmail.com>> wrote:
I (razzingly) suggest bad summer movies or  that somehow all the Doom will some 
freeze in place at the same time.
Perhaps we shall some how find a bunch of tribbles, zombies, a large rock in 
the sky, and dinso's all at the same time and that because of the Doom Metter 
the'll just stay their, thus no more doom can happen.

On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 8:04 PM, Jochen Fromm 
<j...@cas-group.net<mailto:j...@cas-group.net>> wrote:
I doubt that North Korea has the ability to hit a tiny island like Guam in the 
Pacific, but it can without doubt destroy the 9 million capital Seoul near the 
border with weapons bought from Russia or China.

The danger of a nuclear apocalypse is greatest when the world has forgotten how 
dangerous these weapons of mass destruction are. Even trying to model mutually 
assured destruction is useless with people like Kim Jong-Un and Trump. How can 
he brag on Twitter about nuclear weapons? WTF ?

-J.




FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove



FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove


FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Owen Densmore]

OK, what's tit for tat with the North Korea Guam threat:

President Trump seemed to draw a red line Tuesday when he warned North
Korea that continued threats against the United States would be met with
“fire and fury like the world has never seen.” The next day, North Korea
crossed it.

Or at least it announced, in unusually specific terms, how it could. The
country’s state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday night
issued a statement that said the North is “seriously examining the plan for
an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12
intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the
enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial
warning to the U.S.” The statement, citing the North’s Strategic Rocket
Forces head General Kim Rak Gyom, added that the plan would be finished by
mid-August before going to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for approval.

“Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only
absolute force can work on him,” the general said, in apparent reference to
Trump, whose ultimatum he described as a “load of nonsense.”


I suppose firing 4 rockets to land in NK waters? Or sending 4 drones to
hover over NK? Shooting down the NK rockets would be risky, showing our
hand as to effective antimissile capabilities.

   -- Owen

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/08/north-korea-answers-trumps-vague-threats-with-specific-ones/536433/


On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 9:36 PM, Gillian Densmore 
wrote:

> I (razzingly) suggest bad summer movies or  that somehow all the Doom will
> some freeze in place at the same time.
> Perhaps we shall some how find a bunch of tribbles, zombies, a large rock
> in the sky, and dinso's all at the same time and that because of the Doom
> Metter the'll just stay their, thus no more doom can happen.
>
> On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 8:04 PM, Jochen Fromm  wrote:
>
>> I doubt that North Korea has the ability to hit a tiny island like Guam
>> in the Pacific, but it can without doubt destroy the 9 million capital
>> Seoul near the border with weapons bought from Russia or China.
>>
>> The danger of a nuclear apocalypse is greatest when the world has
>> forgotten how dangerous these weapons of mass destruction are. Even trying
>> to model mutually assured destruction is useless with people like Kim
>> Jong-Un and Trump. How can he brag on Twitter about nuclear weapons? WTF ?
>>
>> -J.
>>
>>
>>
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Gillian Densmore]

I (razzingly) suggest bad summer movies or  that somehow all the Doom will
some freeze in place at the same time.
Perhaps we shall some how find a bunch of tribbles, zombies, a large rock
in the sky, and dinso's all at the same time and that because of the Doom
Metter the'll just stay their, thus no more doom can happen.

On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 8:04 PM, Jochen Fromm  wrote:

> I doubt that North Korea has the ability to hit a tiny island like Guam in
> the Pacific, but it can without doubt destroy the 9 million capital Seoul
> near the border with weapons bought from Russia or China.
>
> The danger of a nuclear apocalypse is greatest when the world has
> forgotten how dangerous these weapons of mass destruction are. Even trying
> to model mutually assured destruction is useless with people like Kim
> Jong-Un and Trump. How can he brag on Twitter about nuclear weapons? WTF ?
>
> -J.
>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove

Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Steven A Smith]

I'm not following the public debate/discussion on this, but I think we 
discussed this here a few months ago?


Even though I lived and worked in the belly of the (Nuclear Weapons 
Complex) beast for decades, I admit to not knowing with any degree of 
certainty how direct the "Launch Codes" and mechanisms in the various 
command centers (white house situation, Cheyenne Mtn, ???) or via the 
"Nuclear Football"  are connected to the actual launching mechanisms.


I understand that the Nuclear Football is carried by an aide-de-camp 
(who is this for Trump, someone different every day/week?) and can 
imagine that person wrestling it away from him when he is in a fit of 
pique, as might the Sec'y of Defense or one of the Joint Chiefs 
body-check him as he reaches for the "FIRE!" button (is there actually a 
lock-out switch or something involved?).According to Wikipedia, the 
President's identity must be verified (the purpose of the launch code?) 
which the Sec'y of Defense is burdened with authenticating?   In 
principle, he does not have veto power, but in practice I like to 
visualize "Mad Dog" Madis decking "The Donald" when he tries to launch 
agains NK (or anyone), then politely reaching out to help him up off the 
floor and asking him "are you OK?  are you having a siezure?"  and then 
decking him again, eventually getting some help to haul him off to a 
hospital bed (with restraints) in a padded room in a coma.


I also understand that every "launch site" implements a two-man rule for 
the actual mechanism for arming/launching which I believe means that at 
each launch site we have two more people with "practical" (if not legal) 
veto power.   Meanwhile a (small) host of maintenance and operational 
staff in the subs/silos/bombers have some practical opportunity to at 
least disable (or fail to enable) the warheads or launch capabiities as 
well.


With that model, I would say there are a "few" fuses in the circuit that 
*might* prevent an other-than-sane President from actually effectively 
launching any missiles.   I'm waiting for the "Presidential Order" to 
come down directing that the launch mechanisms be connected directly to 
a twitter feed so that he can launch with nothing more than a clever 
hashtag "#nukemYooge  @NK" or somesuch?!


With the various leaky leaks and the leaking leakers who leak them afoot 
in spite of the AG's "don't do it!" admonition afoot, I would not be 
surprised if there aren't many Silo/Sub/Bomber operations people 
discussing among themselves in 2's and 3's or entire teams "what we do 
if he pulls the trigger??!!!"


I think I'm more worried for Japan than SK or US protectorates or the US 
west coast... seems like an easier target might be Japan (Okinawa is 
fat, but there are several other US Military targets as well).


If Putin was the friend Trump seems to want him to be, HE would take 
care of any retaliation for us I would think?  Let one bully's 
bully-friend smack down the little bully-wanna-be for the first bully?  
Trump is a whackadoodle loose cannon, but Putin is more of a Junkyard 
Dog, probably more intimidating to Kim Jong-Un than the Donald is?   But 
then that probably wouldn't play well with the third nuclear Super Power.


It probably doesn't matter which side of the equator you live in in 
Ecuador, but "back in the day" nuclear winter (and less outrageous 
alternatives) models were more gentle in the southern Hemisphere.


I hate to realize that I am even spending cycles thinking about this!?!

- Steve


On 8/9/17 5:05 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote:
It's bad enough that he's "out of his friggin' mind", but a CNN piece 
today asks, "Could Congress stop Trump from bombing North Korea?" The 
reporter's conclusion is basically that no, it couldn't. I think we 
all should scared witless that Trump may well pull the trigger. My 
only hope is that enough high-level generals would risk court martial 
and refuse to follow his orders. If the USA did launch a pre-emptive 
nuclear strike, the consequences for S Korea (and Japan?) would be 
horrific. And then there is the question of what China and Russia 
would do in response. This is really, really serious crap.


On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 5:05 PM, Nick Thompson 
> wrote:


Jochen,

He’s out of his friggin mind.  There are those who feel that the
risk arising from the stultification of our political system was
so bad that it justified taking this sort of existential risk
(Hey, Dave!), but I am not one of them.  Small interesting things
ARE starting to happen, (meetings amongst scared non-crazy people
in congress) and I am grateful for those, but whether they will
develop in time to rescue us, is by no means certain.

People keep offering me as comfort the fact that the South Koreans
aren’t worried …. 30 million people on the edge of obliteration
from conventional shells full of sarin.  Why does that not comfort

Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Jochen Fromm]

I doubt that North Korea has the ability to hit a tiny island like Guam in the 
Pacific, but it can without doubt destroy the 9 million capital Seoul near the 
border with weapons bought from Russia or China. 
The danger of a nuclear apocalypse is greatest when the world has forgotten how 
dangerous these weapons of mass destruction are. Even trying to model mutually 
assured destruction is useless with people like Kim Jong-Un and Trump. How can 
he brag on Twitter about nuclear weapons? WTF ?
-J.


null
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Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Gary Schiltz]

It's bad enough that he's "out of his friggin' mind", but a CNN piece today
asks, "Could Congress stop Trump from bombing North Korea?" The reporter's
conclusion is basically that no, it couldn't. I think we all should scared
witless that Trump may well pull the trigger. My only hope is that enough
high-level generals would risk court martial and refuse to follow his
orders. If the USA did launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike, the
consequences for S Korea (and Japan?) would be horrific. And then there is
the question of what China and Russia would do in response. This is really,
really serious crap.

On Wed, Aug 9, 2017 at 5:05 PM, Nick Thompson 
wrote:

> Jochen,
>
>
>
> He’s out of his friggin mind.  There are those who feel that the risk
> arising from the stultification of our political system was so bad that it
> justified taking this sort of existential risk (Hey, Dave!), but I am not
> one of them.  Small interesting things ARE starting to happen, (meetings
> amongst scared non-crazy people in congress) and I am grateful for those,
> but whether they will develop in time to rescue us, is by no means
> certain.
>
>
>
>
>
> People keep offering me as comfort the fact that the South Koreans aren’t
> worried …. 30 million people on the edge of obliteration from conventional
> shells full of sarin.  Why does that not comfort me?
>
>
>
> No, we are back to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
>
>
> Nicholas S. Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology
>
> Clark University
>
> http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] *On Behalf Of *Jochen
> Fromm
> *Sent:* Wednesday, August 09, 2017 3:34 PM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* [FRIAM] The apocalypse
>
>
>
> What's the matter with your president? I am worried we are heading to the
> apocalypse. The "fire and fury" threat feels like the Cuban missile crisis
> or worse.
>
> http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/
>
>
>
> And then there is the issue of global warming which the Trump
> administration ignores now. This is not just one apocalypse, it is two.
>
>
>
> -J.
>
>
>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com
> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
>

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Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Nick Thompson]

Jochen, 

 

He’s out of his friggin mind.  There are those who feel that the risk arising 
from the stultification of our political system was so bad that it justified 
taking this sort of existential risk (Hey, Dave!), but I am not one of them.  
Small interesting things ARE starting to happen, (meetings amongst scared 
non-crazy people in congress) and I am grateful for those, but whether they 
will develop in time to rescue us, is by no means certain.  

 

 

People keep offering me as comfort the fact that the South Koreans aren’t 
worried …. 30 million people on the edge of obliteration from conventional 
shells full of sarin.  Why does that not comfort me?  

 

No, we are back to the Cuban Missile Crisis. 

 

Nick 

 

 

Nicholas S. Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Psychology and Biology

Clark University

http://home.earthlink.net/~nickthompson/naturaldesigns/

 

From: Friam [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
Sent: Wednesday, August 09, 2017 3:34 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

 

What's the matter with your president? I am worried we are heading to the 
apocalypse. The "fire and fury" threat feels like the Cuban missile crisis or 
worse.

http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/

 

And then there is the issue of global warming which the Trump administration 
ignores now. This is not just one apocalypse, it is two.

 

-J.

 

 


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Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

[Marcus Daniels]

Jochen,


"What's the matter with your president?"


And it is the west cost states at the most risk.  States that voted for H!


Marcus


From: Friam  on behalf of Jochen Fromm 

Sent: Wednesday, August 9, 2017 1:34:15 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: [FRIAM] The apocalypse

What's the matter with your president? I am worried we are heading to the 
apocalypse. The "fire and fury" threat feels like the Cuban missile crisis or 
worse.
http://blog.cas-group.net/2017/08/the-apocalypse/

And then there is the issue of global warming which the Trump administration 
ignores now. This is not just one apocalypse, it is two.

-J.



FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove