I wrote a long piece about this last year covering the present, the near
future and possible solutions. The third part on solutions follows.
*Possible solutions.*
The Triple Revolution (Cybernation. Weaponry, Human Rights)**was an open
letter, signed by notables, sent to President LB Johnson**on March 22,
1964.Although now dated, the problems of automation were foreseen. All
have been ignored to some extent and it will take a brave politician,
considering how their elections are funded, to state the obvious that
American adventurism can no longer be sustained and that the new
unemployed must be supported.
History shows that when wealth inequality reaches a certain point,
unless it is redistributed there will be a revolution.There are examples
of both ways: Rome failed to redistribute and the Western Roman Empire
collapsed.Athens managed to redistribute wealth and survived for a
while.Will Durant’s book /The Lessons of History/ gives many
examples.Durant also points out that following redistribution of wealth
the government must allow its reaccumulation by the few to ensure future
progress.The failure of Communism in Russia showed what happens if you
ignore human nature and don’t allow that.
One possible way of avoiding the looming conflict is conversion to a
welfare system like the Scandinavian countries employ.It does seem to be
successful for them and surveys show they are considered some of the
best places to live.At least it might be a good transitional route.
The other possibility is a guaranteed Universal Basic Income (UBI), high
enough to live on, given to every adult citizen in the country with no
strings attached.Many object to the thought of giving money to the
idle.Free marketers have to face the obvious, which is that the modern
American economy doesn’t provide enough income distribution to preserve
civility in our society. Some say it is only sharing society’s
accumulated wealth.I will leave the moral justification to others.The
main objective is to avoid a revolution that would cost a lot more than
UBI both in blood and treasure.
A UBI differs from welfare as follows:
* it is being paid to individuals rather than households;
* it is paid irrespective of any income from other sources;
* it is paid without requiring the performance of any work or the
willingness to accept a job if offered.
Many prominent European social scientists have now come out in favor of
basic income - among them two Nobel laureates in economics.Alaska has a
modest UBI instituted by a Republican governor, based on the profits
from oil from Prudhoe Bay.This amounts to $300 - $2000 a year for every
resident of more than six months. Switzerland will have a referendum on
whether to have a $2,400/month UBI in 2015 that looks unlikely to
pass.Perhaps a full UBI could be tried experimentally in a State or even
a city, substituting for all welfare payments, to find out the problems.
The main objection to UBI is how to pay for it.Savings could come from
replacing the present 80 government welfare departments, that has the
advantage of requiring little administration.Legalizing drugs to drop
the prison population. A one payer medical system and of course, getting
out of the habit of wars.That alone will not provide enough money, so
perhaps changing the sales tax to manufacturers, rather than sellers,
would capture some of the profits from advanced technology instead of it
being winner takes all.
Work has been a necessity but has no intrinsic virtue.Many hate their
jobs.Surely having more leisure time is not bad.Families will be better
able to look after each other in illness and old age.It is likely many
unemployed on UBI will still want to work both to make more money and
for the first time allow some to do what they enjoy, like to be
musicians or artists, or a mother to stay with her kid when it’s a
baby.Certainly the entertainment industry will grow.Advanced sexbots
that can move and talk will be available, possibly threatening
reproduction rates.
UBI together with robotics and cheap energy from LENR (Low Energy
Nuclear Reaction) aka cold fusion, should finally win the war on poverty
and significantly raise the standard of living for most.Norway’s largest
newspaper Aftenposten reports Industrial Heat’s commercial 1MW thermal
LENR plant is working well.It has now been operating for eight months
(edit now 11 months) as part of a 350 day trial.The new money that would
circulate through UBI should stimulate the current economy, as the
sluggish recovery is due to most having too much debt and not enough
money to spend beyond necessities.
Social unrest will not help run better companies, raise healthier
children or allow one to walk down the street unmolested. UBI is a
pragmatic solution. Hungry people, especially parents of hungry
children, cause unrest.
