In 2009, traffic accidents in Japan killed 4,914 people, a 5%
decrease over last year. This is the lowest annual toll since 1952.
Here is a brief news article:
<http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/traffic-accident-deaths-hit-57-year-low-below-5000-in-2009>http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/traffic-accident-deaths-hit-57-year-low-below-5000-in-2009
Traffic deaths peaked in 1970 at 16,765. They have declined at a
steady pace since then. Experts give several reasons: seat belts,
laws mandating seat belt use, air bags, and in recent years, a
crackdown on drunken driving. To that I would add improved roads in
many rural districts.
The number of cars increased tremendously from 1952 to the 1980s, but
it has probably not increased much since then. I don't have any
statistics on that, but that is my guess based on population and
economic trends.
The NHK reported that the largest increase in accidents in recent
years has been caused by elderly drivers, because the Japanese
population is aging, and it has actually declined slightly in the
last few years.
The NHK showed an interesting graph of the decline that I am trying to find.
The point of this is that problems such as automobile accidents are
not really "accidental" and not unavoidable. They are predictable, in
a statistical sense. They can be avoided, or at least greatly reduced
using improved engineering, technology, laws, and law enforcement.
Any technical problem can be ameliorated with technical solutions. We
should never passively accept as inevitable some level of carnage on
the roads, or air pollution from electric power generation, or global
warming, or any other technical problem. We cannot eliminate traffic
deaths but we can reduce them year by year, until the number
asymptotically approaches zero. Eventually, decades or centuries from
now, all deaths from traffic accidents will be eliminated, if we
choose to eliminate them.
Technical problems can be fixed. Naturally occurring problems such as
cancer or beach erosion may not be amenable to any technical
solution. Social problems such as war or race prejudice cannot be
fixed with technology, although if we find social solutions,
technology can be used as a backup to enforce them. For example, a
complete ban on nuclear testing, including underground tests, can be
monitored with the tools of seismology. A traffic engineer or an
automobile designer can stop people from killing themselves in cars.
They have the power to intervene directly in the course of events.
Seismologists cannot stop nations from conducting underground tests,
but if political leaders agree to stop testing, the seismologists can
then step in and verify that the agreement is being honored.
- Jed
