As many Vorticians know, I've followed the Rossi affair since early
2011. I found, fairly quickly, reasons to think that the
demonstrations were not conclusive, that they may have shown anything
from no excess heat, mild excess heat, to strong excess heat.
From certain evidence (asserted most notably by Mr. Krivit), I came
to think that, as well, some level of deliberate deception was
involved, though it might be rationalized by Rossi as allowing fools
to believe what he hasn't actually stated. Did Rossi anywhere state
that, during the Mats Lewan demo, where he was seen apparently
manipulating the power input -- it's unclear, but he looks like the
cat that just ate the canary -- that he had *not* changed the input
power (at a point where the output seems to change?) I'm suspecting
that there are many questions that Rossi hasn't been directly asked
by some of the prominent reporters.
After all, they could be considered rude.
If the questions were asked, he may have successfully avoided answering them.
In any case, one thing is clear: Rossi promised that it would all be
plainly obvious by October of 2011. It wasn't. Given his secrecy and
the obvious failure, we can't trust what he sais about what will
happen in the future.
Why was Rossi accepted by many in the LENR community? I should note
that many did not accept him, and that the LENR community of
researchers includes many who think Rossi is a scammer or the like.
But he was accepted partly because there were researchers who thought
that the NiH line of approach had promise, it did not surprise them
that someone would claim results with NiH, and, unlike many other
scientists, they know that LENR is real, that there is no specific,
clear theoretical impossibility there. This isn't a "free energy"
scam, even though it may still be a scam. (Some claimed
*explanations* of NiH results might indeed be impossible; I'm
speaking generally. Once one knows that low energy nuclear reactions
are possible, it's no longer wise to reject LENR reports out of hand,
and the researchers know this, being generally familiar with the evidence.)
What was truly surprising about the Rossi reports was not NiH excess
heat. That had been reported before. What was surprising was the
level of heat, far above what had been achieved by others, and the
implied claim of reliability. Others have, as with much in LENR
research, found quite variable results. Especially it's been found
that material that produces results, as to excess heat, may not
continue to do so. It works for a while, then stops working.
So an obvious posibility is that Rossi did indeed find a reaction
that *sometimes* produces significant excess heat. But that only does
so for some time. That would mean that he might set up demos, and
some of them might work, and he believes, then, that he's just around
the corner from making it work reliably for a long time. And then,
because sometimes it doesn't work, well, he can't let people think it
doesn't work, so he, perhaps, fudges the demos a bit. They're all
snakes anyway, out to steal his secrets....
A LENR device that produces power for a few hours or a few days isn't
practical. It might indeed be of interest, and someone, someday,
might figure out how to make something like this reliable, but Rossi
might not even be close. His approach might be too crude.
But, he'd think, it's just around the corner, if he just tweaks this
or that, surely it will work.
This is just a hypothesis, but it does explain a lot, if true.
