> > There is no technical reason why CSP cannot become competitive with other > technologies, especially if you factor in the cost in lives, health, and > global warming from the alternatives such as coal and natural gas from > fracking. Of course it is not competitive now. If I had a cold fusion > generator right now, you can be darn sure it would be hundreds or perhaps > thousands of times more expensive per watt than any alternative. The first > 100,000 cold fusion power reactors will be far more expensive than any > other kind. The first computers cost way more than mechanical calculating > machines. Some of the first transistors cost $17 and they > replaced vacuum tubes costing a nickel each. That comparison misses the > point. It was obvious that transistors would soon get cheaper. Granted, not > many people realized they would someday cost a millionth of of a penny, but > it was clear there was "plenty of room at the bottom" (Feynman). > > - Jed >
I would dispute that. There is are very strong technical reasons why it can't become competitive with other technologies: 1/ The power source is too diffuse, and the sun doesn't shine at night meaning you need a huge plant to produce significant power. 2/ You have to build mirrors heavy to survive weather/environment. Hail, snow, rain, salt, wind, dust and UV all mean that the construction needs to be reasonably heavy if you want it to survive decades even if the bad weather is infrequent. Occasional cleaning and other maintenance will still be required. 3/ The plants are a relatively long distance from consumers and existing grid infrastructure - expensive grid connections. 4/ There will be alternative extremely cheap sources of intense heat energy available for foreseeable future (fossil fuels + nuclear, probably LENR, maybe hot fusion). Given massive availability of shale gas produced electricity at $0.04-0.06/kWh (currently <$0.04/kWh in USA due to extremely low gas price) and the best CSP running along at $0.2-0.3/kWh, there is just no foreseeable technology path that can bring the CSP cost down by a factor of 4 to compete with gas and (eventually) nuclear. Rooftop PV can compete because it can avoid paying for the grid and distribution costs that dominate domestic electricity costs but CSP currently only works in scales too large for urban sites (excepting very expensive dish stirling).
